Hi! Yes I know most of these EW guys have been calling for a top since 2003. They still can't believe this is a bullmarket. If we are setting up for a Primary diagonal triangle fifth wave (2004 - 2007). Then I could see the SPX overlapping the top of Major wave 1 (1225) during this decline. Still, that would indicate new highs in the months ahead to complete the diagonal. Not long term bearish one bit ... yet!
Thx again..now there's actually one guy (not a popular guy) and certainly not a perma-bear. he combines gann with EW and cycle work and he feel's the intermediate bull is over. To his credit he also called the October to April rally. So i was just wondering since you both use some elemnets of EW if you too could conceive of a bearish move.
Hi! The October to April advance in the SPX was three intermediate waves: wave iii Oct - Jan wave iv Feb wave v Mar - Apr Nice to hear there's some other bullish types out there. The basis of all my technical analysis, in all the markets I follow, is my Objective EW. I use other technical tools to identify short term moves, momentum etc. THX
Thx for your replies. I ws just curious why since your analysis has been almost identical to his (th eother gann/EW guy i refer to) why the sudden major divergence here, where he sees a major decline and you see at best a small wave 4 correction. Time will tell........ Thx for sharing.
"Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder" I'm sure there's another that is sure that the market'll be flat. If you feed the same data into the same computer repeatedly you'll get the same result. If you show the same data to two different persons, or to the same person at different moments in time, it's very likely you'll get different opinions.
On the way to Song, Yang meets a man at the twon of Ni, who has two wives. One is pretty and the other plain. Yet he favors the plain wife. So Yang asks he why? The man answers: "The pretty one knows she is pretty. I don't. The plain one knows she is plain. I don't. A bad person knows he is bad. I don't." Yang says: "I shall remember the lesson. The Saint behaves as a Saint, by his own volition." so shall it be written, so shall it be done
SHORT TERM: Breakout! Overnight the foreign markets were mixed, only Asia's HSI/BSE were higher, and Europe was generally higher. Our market opened on a quiet note, with Bonds and Crude relatively quiet. The DOW started to rise, presumably from good earnings reports and it took the SPX with it, while the NDX languished. The SPX: hit 1310 secondary resistance, then 1314 the previous high, and went right through 1316 the long term EW pivot to top at 1318. The DOW/NAZ/TRAN/NYA have all made new highs. The intermediate term advance appears to have resumed with just a minor correction of its first five waves up. Now that all the indices have made lows together, they should move in unison to the next EW pivots: which are much higher. Looks like the Bull is back in town. Short term the market is overbought, maybe a pullback here to retest support. Google earnings tonight, options expiration tomorrow. Too much excitement for me in 24 hours. Lets label the April 7th high as wave 1, and the April 17th low as wave 2, we should now be entering wave 3 of the uptrend. Hope this ride is not too bumpy!
To me it looks like SPX just harvested some short stops, and it is headed to a larger correction. The DJX looks more bullish in short term, and NDX bullish but faltering. None of them look like ready for a real wave 3 to unfold. But, as I recall, you were correct in most of your forecasts ...