I'm surpised Gold has rallied back as much as it has, the MMI has been declining throughout the advance. Crude still appears to be in a wave 4 with another wave down to retest $56. Overall, I see them both going higher this year!
Glad you had fun! I don't always post here, as many are aware, apparently you are not one of them. You have to go to my blog, where I post twice a day: http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/ Markets can change in an hours notice, as it did friday I did have fun, i appreciate when i can actually verify someones predictions. I am not sure why you are directing me to your blog, perhaps to cover for your poor performance here? In any event if markets change so suddenly then why the predictions? you'll just change them too to match the reality thereby negating the very essensce of a prediction, and so what... so funny how people do this kind of thing and believe they are really on to something!
I respect other peoples thoughts, but in your case I don't even share them. If every single trade or prediction was successful I imagine we wouldn't be here discussing what the markets do and don't do. It is impossible to predict markets 100% of the time. And if you traded every single signal and didn't use proper money management you would go out of business very quickly. So is it NORMAL for any system or study to give wrong or bad signals. What you do about them is what counts. I enjoy reading Tony's commentaries but base my trading on my own research. It is refreshing to read other's perspectives. Bringing other trader's contributions down because of what is a natural phenomena in this business makes one wonder if you really understand the subject of trading. Just my 2c...
so one good call on the october bottom and most of the rest were bad. you would have been chopped to bits trading this. In trading you can't suddenly change your prediction, once the bet is on no broker will allow you to change it after the fact, so modifying predictions is quite pointless. I simply took all the predictions and watched the outcomes on a price chart, what i saw wasn't that good. I understand that nothing is perfect but it should also be better than simple intuitive guessing as he was wrong more than right. Go ahead count em up. This EW stuff is supposed to be objective and powerful, that means it is supposed to anticipate the very market changes that are causing Ghar to change his calls all the time. It's not objective, and it's not useful, to be constantly looking in the rear view mirror backfitting the results and changing the calls. well as I said, i don't give a damn if you want to trade this- carry on fellas!
If Medusa represented Tony's view on the markerts... <img src=http://galleleo.nm.ru/Galereia/Astro/Perseus%20Defeats%20Medusa.jpg>
I invested some time this weekend examining the DOW, which as you know has been showing relative strength in the overall market for nearly two months now. During the supercycle bear market the DOW was considered the safe haven for stock investments. With the bear market still being fresh in everyone's minds, and many being bearish, it is easy to assume that this is the situation this time around. However, we are not in a bear market, and the market is not cascading down as it was when the DOW was a safe haven. Thus, I dismiss that theory. Secondly, Investors Intelligence which has been providing investor sentiment readings for over 30 years, recently published a bullish/bearish sentiment reading typical of a major low. The current reading of bulls minus bears is 11.4%. The last time we had a reading this low was in May 2003. Just before the DOW/SPX soared over 25% and the NAZ/NDX over 45%! I seem to recall similar bearish readings in the mid, and then again late 1980's, just before the DOW would make a major upward move. Thus, my reason for re-examining the DOW. When comparing the 1980's bull market of the DOW in Objective EW terms to our current market, there is a remarkable similarity, almost astonishing actually. In mid 1982 the DOW surged up in a five wave sequence kicking off its bull market. It rallied until late 1983 and then corrected for about 8 months into a mid 1984 low. From that low it progressed in a subdivision of rising impulse waves until mid 1985. Thus three years after the bull market kickoff it was still sitting essentailly near the same highs it achieved in late 1983. After that the DOW soared! In our current market, if we disregard the October 2002 low and apply the March 2003 low as the cyclical bottom, we witness a similar event unfold. From early 2003 until early 2004 the DOW surged upward in five impulse waves kicking off its bull market. It then corrected again for about 8 months into the late 2004 low. From that point on it has been rising in another subdivison of impulse waves right up until today: right at its highs and again three years later! Last year I made a comparison of the DOW from 1932 - 1937 to the NAZ from 2002 - present. Both markets had just had speculative blowoff tops and crashed losing about 80% of their value in three years. And, their recovering bull markets were and are remarkably similar. Now, I see another remarkable comparison of the DOW 1982 - 1985 to our current DOW 2003 - present market. History does repeat itself but never quite exactly the same way. As a result of this analysis I have posted on the DOW and SPX weekly charts, (they move together), an alternate count even more bullish than the one I am been applying. I'll post this alternate labeling of the DOW below. In conclusion, sparing everyone the full analysis, if the DOW starts to lead this market higher from here on out this will be the preferred count, AND there is plenty of bull market ahead of us. Plenty! Let's see if; "The last shall be first." Best to your week! http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
1) Market has NEVER sustained this many FED hikes and survived to tell about it. 2) Mid cycle elections are bearish almost without exception. 3) Commodities although in pullback mode are at near record highs and many are at record highs if you take inflation into account. 4) The volume on the upmove has been dismal. 5) It is March. 6) Hurricane season is around the corner, and nature is telling us something that is very threatning. All you have to do is open your eyes. 7) If the DOW is doing so great and the economy is doing so well, why is GE lagging so badly? Could it be that some mutual fund(s) simply needs to put money to work and is driving the markets higher with no underlying fundamental reason to do so? 8) World interest rates are signaling that the free ride is over. 9) The dollar is strengthening. Many of the companies in the DOW are multinationals whose profits are often at least half if not more by doing business overseas. That means every tick up in the dollar cuts into profits. 10) The consumer, the old trump card - how long can the market ride on his back before it breaks? I can go on and on, but that is enough. However, I do like EW. nitro