Hi Lorenzo, There are two ways of looking at the DOW over the past two years. Either it has lagged badly and will continue to underperform. Or it has been building a base, and is currently breaking out of that base. From the top in January 2004, to the recent low in October 2005 the DOW was virtually unchanged. Since then, the DOW (+8%) has performed as well as the SPX (+10%) and the NDX (+9%). At the same time the TRANsports, a leading indicator of economic activity, has been soaring to all time new highs. Cyclicals move at the beginning of economic expansions, and we have just had a 3rd - 4th quarter slowdown. Technically, the above just justifies what the EW is displaying. The DOW has been building a base with a series of higher highs and higher lows. When it started making new highs for the bull market while the major indices were just coming off their lows, this indicated to me that it was breaking out of its base by leading the market higher. And, the market has followed, as the SPX made a new intraday high yesterday for the bull market. In regard to Ralph A. and Bob P. and Peter E. and others. We'll just let the market be the judge. As for the presidential cycle. The EW is displaying the likelyhood of a serious 10% + correction later in the year. This will probably be considered the 4-year cycle low. The waves create the cycles and not the other way around Good points thank you!
The NAZ confirmed the new uptrend today, expecting the SPX to follow shortly, and the NDX to catch up as it has lagged the most.
here's my objective analysis of your objective analysis. i have simply collected the predictions and made comments after them in bold. The dates are the dates of your original post. 20 years doing this? really?? does accuracy matter? 9/19/05 Maybe a little recap is in order: Posted Aug 30th: Appears to me we have seen the end of the four week decline in the market. And, we should get a week or two relief here, with a nice bounce. I can now count completed zigzags, from the top, in the COMPX and INX, with a double zigzag in the INDU. Yesterdays lows in the COMPX futures @ 2113 was not reached with todays selling onslaught. Todays low of 2120 was tested in the afternoon successfully and we rallied a nice 10 points into the close. Posted Sept 13th: Yesterday the NAZ double topped in the afternoon at 2186. Then, today after a gap down opening, it rallied all the way back to top at 2186 again, before selling off 14 points in the last 90 minutes. I think the C wave has started to end the correction from early august. 9/21/05 Was checking my charts this morning trying to anticipate a bottom to this correction. And, here is a possible scenario: If the market can drop 2% between now and friday. i.e. INDU 10270 and COMPX 2188 It'll be sufficiently oversold on my MMI and stochastics And probably completed wave patterns in the INDU (flat) and COMPX (zigzag) If we drop 2% straight down till friday I THINK WE CAN LET THE BULL OUT OF THE CORAL AGAIN 9/29/05 Even though the market has barely budged off it's closing lows of last wednesday: COMPX +0.4%, INDU +0.9% and the INX +0.6%, I feel we have seen a major bottom; and the end of the ABC correction in the COMPX. I can't rule out one more shake out to get the two other indices (INDU and INX) into oversold condition, but at this point that may not be required. This is why! With last weeks selloff into the recent lows, I can now count wave C being completed, and the entire ABC correction (minute ii) completed in the form of a flat. I had mentioned this possibly on Sept 17th. Adding more conviction to this count is the fact that the COMPX made an intraday bottom of 2093 last thursday, retested that 2093 bottom on friday. Then rallied up 5 waves to 2133 by monday, and has since corrected to 2109 on tuesday, and retested 2109 successfully again today. Thus, I can see an impulse wave up from the intraday lows and a correction of that advance in the form of a flat. This would indicate that the COMPX should start heading much higher right about now. 9/29/05 I can now count 5 waves up from last thurdays lows ... a double flat correction into today's low ... and now another 5 waves up into todays highs ... support now 2118 - 2121 COMPX NOTE: no posts until 10/22/05 because prediction was quite wrong, there was more downside. Trading this prediction would have been a big loss and not much mention is made of this in the 10/22 post.
10/22 Anyway, the lows are in or close to it. A close in the DOW at 10,683 or higher will confirm the new impulse wave: (iii) of 3 of V. That's only 4% up from fridays close, and only 2% above the intraday high for the week. I'll post the numbers for the other indices next week. NOTE: Another bottom prediction, turns out to be good but it seems like bottom picking and even I saw this one. 10/29 The NAZ appears to have completed it's first impulse 5 waves up and corrected, while the SPX/DOW have been base building. See chart: To confirm an uptrend has started in the SPX/DOW we need a close above 1227 and 10,536 respectively. All other technicals are in alignment. NOTE: a 300 pt rally to confirm a rally? wow! Though it turned out to be a good call 10/30 Of course Murray, anything is possible while building a base. I see five waves up in all three major indices: NAZ from 10/13 SPX from 10/20 DOW from 10/21 All have corrected the first thrust up thurs/fri, and rallied friday off the lows. The NAZ appears lagging and the SPX/DOW are getting overbought short term. If the SPX/DOW push yet higher monday, and the NAZ doesn't catch up, it may force it retest it's recent lows when they pull back. I would imagine, the SPX/DOW are now in wave 1 of the next 5 wave sequence. Looking further out, I would be disappointed if the trend reversal targets were not met during this five wave advance. And so will the market: these are psychological levels, whether they are recognized as such, or not. NOTE: Anything is possible??? I thought objective analysis precluded that? Correctly predicts rally continuation. 11/03 need the following closes to confirm an 'objective EW' trend reversal, end of correction: SPX 1227 NAZ 2156 DOW 10,536 Everything else looks in order: MMI rising, 5 wave patterns during the advance, an acceleration upside gap this past monday, and a myriad of technicals indicating that an intermediate term bottom is in. NOTE: just more on the recent bottom, it is a correct call 11/03 With today's close in the Nasdaq at 2160.22, we now have confirmation of a new uptrend in the markets. The leader naturally had to be first ! The SPX and DOW should follow shortly. What does this mean? Over the next few months the NAZ will reach a minimum of 2356 (wave iii = wave i), or 2560 most probably (wave iii = 1.618 x wave i). See chart : NOTE: NAZ reached a maximum of 2330 on about 10 Jan, thought it could be correctly concluded that it still may get there, however depending on what you mean by âa fewâ it has now been 4 months since the prediction and it hasnât come to pass. 11/07 I have fibonacci projections of: 1280 - 1346 by Jan/Feb. '06 1280: wave iii = wave i 1346: wave iii = 1.618 wave i NOTE: This was a good call, even though I know Fibo is crap. 11/11 All intermediate trends have been confirmed up: NAZ/NDX/DOW/SPX/SOX. Expecting wave iii to have a 1.618 relationship to wave i, or better (see updated chart) SPX = 1345, NAZ = 2560 and NDX = 1835. NOTE: These targets not met 4 months later 12/1 Getting back to the comment: Some people think market would pullback to 1225-1235 area and then make the LAST attempt to run to 1275 before we go into the bear market. I see no signs of any bear market before the three intermediate term advances conclude. Some people think after this pullback, we would head to 1300 and then a little pullback..and then to the powerfull rally. My preferred count fits precisely with this opinion. A rally to about 1300 would finish off wave 3, than a wave 4 correction, before again advancing to new highs for the bull market. If you believe we could go to 1350 on s&p ..why? I believe that this intermediate term advance is wave iii, of wave 3, of wave V. Since wave i, of 3, of V was already concluded between Apr - Aug '05, and was 107 points. Wave iii should now have some fibonacci relationship to that advance. If we take the low of wave ii as 1173, then 1173 + 107 = 1280, wave iii = wave i. The high of this advance is already 1271, and it's not over! Now, if we take the next higher relationship wave iii = 1.618 x wave i, we have 173 points. Thus 1173 + 173 = 1346, or 1345 rounded off. The same relationships hold true for the NAZ, however, the NAZ has fallen about 4% short of it's initial target thus far. But we all know how fast the NAZ can rally. So we'll just have to see what unfolds. NOTE S&P high is about 1297, twice in feb. this prediction is vague and longer term, hard to evaluate because of time frame 12/3 LONG TERM: BULLISH We continue to label the stock market activity from the Oct 2002 low, the same as we have when we identified that significant bottom: a bull market. All four of our major indices NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW are currently all aligned with basically the same wave patterns, which in itself is unusual. A summary review of our 'bullmkt' charts will display the exact wave labeling we have used all along. This bull market consists of five primary waves: I - V, as part of Cycle wave One from the Oct 2002 low. Primary waves I - IV have already completed and we are in primary wave V. This last primary wave has been subdividing into two lesser degrees of waves: major (1 - 5) and intermediate (i - v). Thus far, we have completed major waves 1 - 2, and intermediate waves i - ii, and are currently in intermediate wave iii. Upon completion of wave iii, we should correct in a wave iv, advance again in a wave v, (completing wave 3), correct in a wave 4 and then top off the bull market in a wave 5. This should all conclude sometime in the year 2007. So there is plenty left in this bull market. NOTE: Long term comment, canât say yet how accurate 12/8 It appears the NDX has failed to successfully penetrate the 1710 EW pivot point (see above post). It rallied through it and immediately retreated. This has placed pressure on the short term uptrend as noted in my blog. Several intermediate uptrend lines have now been broken, which suggests we are now in a short term correction. We can count three waves up from the mid/late October lows, and we're probably in wave 4. Still to come, another significant advance in wave 5. NOTE: Market up a little then down into the end of the year, no wave 5. 12/9 Our bull market continues to unfold as expected. We maintain the view that we are in intermediate wave iii: of major wave 3: of primary wave 5 of this cyclical bull market. What this means in general terms: after this this intermediate term advance concludes and is corrected, there will be two more intermediate term advances before the bull market concludes in possibly 2007. We're expecting the NAZ to reach 3300, about 50% higher than where it is now, before the bull market ends. To see how we arrived at this price level please review: "Cycle wave 1932 -1937 and Cycle wave 2002 - 2007" posted on Sept 21st. Also, in our very first post on this website on Aug 25th, please review: "The Current Count EW terms", unfolding as labeled since the bull market began in Oct 2002. Our Objective EW is truly a most remarkable technical tool. NOTE: AS EXPECTED???
12/19 If you recall, in January the NAZ/NDX topped and started heading lower, taking the rest of the market with it. On the first wave down, the SPX/DOW held and turned up making new highs while the NAZ/NDX went sideways. Then, they all turned down together completing the intermediate term correction for all four indices into the April lows. The reason this occurred, is KEY to what is occurring right now! In January, when the NAZ/NDX had turned lower, the SPX specifically, had not completed its five wave advance. It had only completed three waves up into January, thus it needed another rally to complete the impulse wave. Keeping this in mind. My MMI (market momentum indicator), which is used to measure internal market strength during an advance, and to help count the waves as they unfold, is still rising. It made new highs in the SPX/DOW this week, while dipping a bit in the NAZ/NDX. What this means basically, is that we have not seen the major thrust of this intermediate term advance as of yet. So the third wave is still ahead of us. That being said, and the fact that the SPX/DOW are acting like they need to finish five waves up by going counter to the short term trend of the NAZ/NDX, can only mean one thing: The NAZ/NDX has just completed only wave 1, and the SPX/DOW are now completing wave 1 of the 5 wave intermediate term advance: with waves 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 to go, before this intermediate term uptrend ends. This has very bullish implications intermediate term. We have mentioned this possiblity for the past couple of weeks: the recent highs in the NAZ/NDX only being wave 1. We also mentioned that the NAZ/NDX was overbought intermediate term and needed to correct or go sideways to relieve some of that condition: it is doing just that. NOTE: A little vague but indicates a very bullish stance âintermediate termâ 12/24 What started off as a negative week ended relatively unchanged. And, the main indices did reach an extreme oversold condition, similar to the late October low, and rallied higher. The TRANsports took off making all time new highs in what looks to be the resumption of the intermediate term advance: waves 1 and 2 completed and now in wave 3. We've updated all the charts including the 'bullmkt' charts for the NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW/SOX/TRAN. Our MMI has eased off a bit from the highs which is normal, and suggests a very positive shortened week ahead. If we are indeed in wave 3 of this intermediate uptrend it should be pretty explosive: a third of a third of a third. I've also noticed that Bonds continue to trend higher, and the bull market in crude and gold looks done. All very positive for stocks! Refer to the 'bullmkt' charts for each index to see the counts we have maintained throughtout the bull market of 2002. We're still very bullish! Note: Predicts a very positive week ahead, the next week was terrible.
12/29 SHORT TERM: NEUTRAL We took a good look at all four indices, the MMI, and the price trends, and we're not liking what we're seeing. Short term, we were fairly oversold two days ago and have not rallied. Intermediate term, we are very close to making price trend reversals in all four indices: The DOW is a certainty. Our Market Momentum Indicator appears on the verge of taking a steep decline over the next few days, unless this market rallies. With all these potential negatives on the horizon and the indices still within 1% - 2% of their highs. We feel it's time to take some profits. We're going to neutral on the intermedate term for the next few days, or until the negatives get resolved. A complete update after the close. INTERMEDIATE TERM: NEUTRAL LONG TERM: BULLISH NOTE: Changed tune very quickly about being intermediate term bullish, impossible to trade this when it changes after the fact like this. The next week was very bullish, and he took profits right before it! Thatâs two very wrong weekly predictions in a row. 12/29 The MMI was predicting a big UP week, doesn't look like it is going to happen: flat to down. Which indicates market momentum is falling quickly. Not a good sign for a continuation of the uptrend. NOTE: The âuptrendâ continued the very next week 12/31 I can count an A - B - a down thus far in the NDX. Should get a b-wave bounce, then another c-wave decline to complete this down move. Then, I would expect a rally. Something like the green lines I added to the chart. NOTE: The market went straight up the next week, but good call long term. 1/2 LONG TERM: BULLISH After some serious analysis of a potential completed long term diagonal triangle, that I am certain many of the bears will embrace, EW and the like. I've concluded that the MMI just does not support that potential scenario. And, as noted by our recent "wedges/triangle" report, neither does the wave patterns. Thus, I'm remaining long term bullish and expecting only a correction to complete minor wave 2. Looking for the bull market to resume in a few weeks, or sooner. Posted new 'bullmkt' charts. NOTE: long term is how long? canât evaluate
1/8 All four indices are now in another solid uptrend. We posted some fibonacci relationships the other day, relating this waves potential to the previous wave of similar degree: wave 1. I repeat them here: FIBONACCI NAZ NDX SPX DOW 0.618 x 1 2345 1759 1310 11,144 1.0 x 1 2442 1836 1349 11,429 1.618 x 1 2598 1961 1413 11,889 These levels are the potential target for our current rally. Lets approach them one level at a time and see where we are at as the wave unfolds. The first level of targets are only 2% away from where we closed on friday. This will be easily obtainable since we are only in the first wave of our current uptrend. NOTE: Changed tune again intermediate term, just reflecting the markets. First target was hit, good call EXCEPT that it was hit in February after the Dow made a new monthly low following this. You would have been butchered trading this. 1/9 Based upon the completed patterns I believe the markets can now rally back to the B wave top around the end of January. This would send the NDX to the 1717 EW pivot, the SPX to the 1288 EW pivot, and the NAZ to 2314. Lets observe how this advance unfolds, it might be more of a significant bottom than it currently appears. The reason I state this is the action thus far in the DOW/TRAN. The DOW specifically looks like it did 5 waves up while the other indices were doing a 3 wave B, and it barely corrected on this recent decline, supporting the observation that it was indeed a 5 wave advance. If the DOW starts making new highs during this short term advance, it will take the rest of the market with it, into a major extension. It's still possible! NOTE: This was at the top, he didnât mention the impending correction, no posts until feb 10 which repeats the pattern of simply not posting when things are too obviously wrong. Feb. 10 Apparently that was only the first of five waves down. Waiting for the intermediate term low.... Note: oh of course! 2/11 Luckily the third wave scenario aborted at about 2:30PM yesterday afternoon. The zigzag 5 - 3 - 5 from the highs until tuesdays lows appears to be a completed formation. The rally to thursdays highs was a corrective a-b-c, the reason I expected another impulse wave down. At this point, the NDX is sufficiently oversold for a major bottom, BUT the other indices: NAZ/SPX/DOW are not. So I'm expecting the correction to continue. Posted a NDX60min chart... NOTE: âSo I'm expecting the correction to continueâ That was the bottom!!! 2/12 I think we need about three more weeks to line everything up for an important low. Naturally, all the markets move together, so the NDX will make a lower low with the others. Targets? Looking at NDX 1621, the next lower pivot after 1634. NOTE: The short term bottom was in, market retests highs 2 weeks later
gharghur, I could not care less if you or others believe this crapola, I just thought this little excercise would be fun and inject a little honesty
Glad you had fun! I don't always post here, as many are aware, apparently you are not one of them. You have to go to my blog, where I post twice a day: http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/ Markets can change in an hours notice, as it did friday