I agree, but imo EW is probably too complicated over simple things like DOW theory with probably little or no benefit. However, one problem I have with DOW and where EW may be a good adjunct is that DOW says very little in terms of acting and initiating a position (AFAIK) when markets are trendless. I always thought that EW took the idea of DOW and extended fractally to trendless states. I just don't know how well it works in those cases. I have always had a fondness for EW because I always thought the ideas were sound, which is saying something because I detest 90% of all technical analysis, but I just can't make it work for me. nitro
I believe you are correct, Charles Dow did develop his theory first. However in those days the largest industry was the transports (railroads). The first daily published average, 1885, consisted of 12 railroads and 2 industrials. In modern times, neither the transports nor the industrials are indicators of this service driven economy. The EW concept is sound, it defines trending and trendless markets. It anticipates long term trends, blow off tops and even crashes. It just appears to me, that most EW people were more interested in marketing products than fully understanding the concept. Appreciate your thoughts.
John, Excellent point! There have always been major divergences in the last three wave fives that I have witnessed: 1987, 1990 and 2000. The 1987 one was a classic: the advance/decline ratio topped in April and after a short correction into May, the DJIA surged 22% higher into August like nothing had changed. I knew at that point that the 1984 - 1987 advance was over, and 1987 lows had to be taken out, but was surprised it took only two months. I initially thought the decline would last into 1988. Yet, the bottom was placed in December, and the market went into bull mode again for another three years.
Wrong. Your title is more oxy-acetylene because Elliot Wave always inflames a lot of discussion that can never reach a proof or any useful degree of applicability.
http://mbfcc.com/book/paul_tudor_jones.shtml "When I meet someone who is interested in learning the trading business, I always refer them to what I consider to be the four Bibles of the business: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, the fictionalized biography of the fabled Jesse Livermore; Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by McGee and Edwards, which was written in the first half of the 20th century and whose tenets still hold today; The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost, a classic; and finally Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, which is a compilation of interviews with great traders"
I agree! And, I still have the last two of those in my posession. Might I add: How To Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad, by William J. O'Neil.
gh, I'm not especially interested in EW, but I certainly have enjoyed your unusually well-tempered responses in this thread to those who tell you you're full of shite and and an idiot and you're wasting your time and so on. A maturity and graciousness rarely seen on ET, it speaks well of your confidence in your strategy. H