so where was the 3rd wave down today? what is the count now? I don't believe that 3rd waves ever retrace that much especially intraday? tia
Tia, Luckily the third wave scenario aborted at about 2:30PM yesterday afternoon. The zigzag 5 - 3 - 5 from the highs until tuesdays lows appears to be a completed formation. The rally to thursdays highs was a corrective a-b-c, the reason I expected another impulse wave down. At this point, the NDX is sufficiently oversold for a major bottom, BUT the other indices: NAZ/SPX/DOW are not. So I'm expecting the correction to continue. Posted a NDX60min chart...
??? NDX to hold bottom but others to go down? or all keep going down but not as a 3rd wave? Any targets?
I think we need about three more weeks to line everything up for an important low. Naturally, all the markets move together, so the NDX will make a lower low with the others. Targets? Looking at NDX 1621, the next lower pivot after 1634.
Just past NOON, yesterdays leaders the SPX/DOW were making new lows for the day. The NDX, which for the past few weeks, would have taken advantage of this opportunity to send the market spiraling downward; pulled up short of a new low, steadied, and taking control of the market rallied higher, the cyclicals followed. It appeared to be a key moment in this entire correction. As a result, the cyclical TRANsports closed at an all time new high, AND the cyclical DOW closed at a new high for the bull market, way ahead of the other three major indices: SPX/NDX/NAZ. This indicates that the DOW, which has lagged in this bull market for two years, has entered an extended wave: minor 3, of intermediate iii, of major 3, of primary V. As it joins the TRANsports in its not so easily identified extension of minor 3, of intermediate iii, of major 5, of primary III. The cyclicals are both in third of thirds! Where does that leave the rest of the market: the SPX/NDX/NAZ. http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/
Hi! Time for a recap of this bull market in SPX (ES) terms: Longer term: from the Oct 2002 lows. primary 1 12/2002 primary 2 03/2003 primary 3 03/2004 primary 4 08/2004 primary 5 underway subdividing: major 1 03/2005 major 2 04/2005 major 3 underway subdividing: intermediate 1 08/2005 intermediate 2 10/2005 intermediate 3 underway as per below: I counted the low in Oct as a failed double test of 1268, (1271 and 1273), ending on the 20th along with the DOW. The NDX/NAZ ended their correction on the 13th. In the SPX: wave 1 10/26 wave 2 10/27 wave 3 12/14 wave 4 01/03 wave 5 01/11 The recent low came in just above the previous 4th wave on a failed retest of 1254 (1255) on 02/10, thanks to the strength in the DOW. Currently in the SPX: wave 1 02/16 wave 2 02/21 wave 3 underway All I see is impulse waves from the October 2002 lows in the SPX/NAZ/NDX/TRAN/R2K/SOX. The DOW's primary 5 is quite complex but still impulsive, expecting 13,000 to end its bull market. fwiw, Tony
Well as the dow is slow....13,000 (+20% from the current price) means at least one full year of bull run....hhhmmmm If the Dow has not rallied in two years with extreme favourable economic conditions (low rates - Corporate earnings - etc.), I really do not understand how is possible a strong rally right now... Acampora is still waiting the DOW @ 8200 anytime this year... Remember....this year we have the 4-year cycle low due in October and the second year of the Presidential cycle that is statistically bearish.... Boh