SHORT TERM: NEUTRAL We took a good look at all four indices, the MMI, and the price trends, and we're not liking what we're seeing. Short term, we were fairly oversold two days ago and have not rallied. Intermediate term, we are very close to making price trend reversals in all four indices: The DOW is a certainty. Our Market Momentum Indicator appears on the verge of taking a steep decline over the next few days, unless this market rallies. With all these potential negatives on the horizon and the indices still within 1% - 2% of their highs. We feel it's time to take some profits. We're going to neutral on the intermedate term for the next few days, or until the negatives get resolved. A complete update after the close. INTERMEDIATE TERM: NEUTRAL LONG TERM: BULLISH
My proprietary Random Volume Predictor Indicator is pointing that we are on the verge of a steep rally, unless this market falls.
Sorry that didn't come out the way it was intended The MMI was predicting a big UP week, doesn't look like it is going to happen: flat to down. Which indicates market momentum is falling quickly. Not a good sign for a continuation of the uptrend.
It seems that lately markets sold in the last hour. It says something about institutional near term views.
The break today I believe is an important one. If we don't close higher tomorrow a trend reversal will have occurred in all four indices: DOW/SPX/NAZ/NDX.
I don't agree. This downleg happened without the paticipant of institutions because of the holiday, and the volume is low. I am expecting an at least short term rally in the coming new year.
What do you mean by "short term" rally? gharghur2 based his forecast on his EW expertise. What are you basing yours on? In my opinion your holiday / volume argument is not solid enough: the whole November rally was not accompanied by large volume, and I don't think that institutions took a whole December holiday. Actually all those end of day index retracements (including today) suggest institutional activity.
I can count an A - B - a down thus far in the NDX. Should get a b-wave bounce, then another c-wave decline to complete this down move. Then, I would expect a rally. Something like the green lines I added to the chart. Happy New Year!
gharghur2 , Thank you for your input hope you keep-it up in the new year . I do check-out your posts eventhough you trade in a different style to myself . Have a good one ......