Getting back to the comment: Some people think market would pullback to 1225-1235 area and then make the LAST attempt to run to 1275 before we go into the bear market. I see no signs of any bear market before the three intermediate term advances conclude. Some people think after this pullback, we would head to 1300 and then a little pullback..and then to the powerfull rally. My preferred count fits precisely with this opinion. A rally to about 1300 would finish off wave 3, than a wave 4 correction, before again advancing to new highs for the bull market. If you believe we could go to 1350 on s&p ..why? I believe that this intermediate term advance is wave iii, of wave 3, of wave V. Since wave i, of 3, of V was already concluded between Apr - Aug '05, and was 107 points. Wave iii should now have some fibonacci relationship to that advance. If we take the low of wave ii as 1173, then 1173 + 107 = 1280, wave iii = wave i. The high of this advance is already 1271, and it's not over! Now, if we take the next higher relationship wave iii = 1.618 x wave i, we have 173 points. Thus 1173 + 173 = 1346, or 1345 rounded off. The same relationships hold true for the NAZ, however, the NAZ has fallen about 4% short of it's initial target thus far. But we all know how fast the NAZ can rally. So we'll just have to see what unfolds.
Keep up the good work Tony! Some of the "knuckleheads" on this site don't understand your approach to Technical Analysis, ( and won't spend the time to do so ) but do not let that dissuade you from you work. It's valuable.
Tony: Being a novice Elliott Wave guy, if iii takes us to 1300 on the S&P 500, where is likely projection for iv? Hopefully I labeled the subwaves correctly!
You must be a mindreader I've just finished a post on my blog detailing the entire intermediate term advance on a micro prospective, thus far. I used the NAZ, not to make it difficult, but it's my favorite index. The SPX/DOW/NDX are all doing the same thing as well. http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
LONG TERM: BULLISH We continue to label the stock market activity from the Oct 2002 low, the same as we have when we identified that significant bottom: a bull market. All four of our major indices NAZ/NDX/SPX/DOW are currently all aligned with basically the same wave patterns, which in itself is unusual. A summary review of our 'bullmkt' charts will display the exact wave labeling we have used all along. This bull market consists of five primary waves: I - V, as part of Cycle wave One from the Oct 2002 low. Primary waves I - IV have already completed and we are in primary wave V. This last primary wave has been subdividing into two lesser degrees of waves: major (1 - 5) and intermediate (i - v). Thus far, we have completed major waves 1 - 2, and intermediate waves i - ii, and are currently in intermediate wave iii. Upon completion of wave iii, we should correct in a wave iv, advance again in a wave v, (completing wave 3), correct in a wave 4 and then top off the bull market in a wave 5. This should all conclude sometime in the year 2007. So there is plenty left in this bull market. http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Is it possible for one or more bearish waves to develop inside one of the three already started bullish waves? Or firstly all these bullish waves have to be completed before any bearish waves start?
Unlike the 1990's, when stocks were soaring into levels unkown. In this decade, we seem to be climbing the price level ladder that is already in place. What I mean by this, is that when the market collapsed during the early part of the decade, certain resistance levels were created on the way down. The market would decline, then start to rally, run into selling pressure, and then resume the decline. These selling pressure levels now provide the market with resistance on the way back up. I like to call these EW pivots points, because they usually occur at a specific turning points within a wave. If you recall, we used EW pivot points to aide us in identifying the end of the recent intermediate term correction, and also when the advance began, in identifying certain levels the markets needed to penetrate in order to get the advance going in earnest. http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
It appears the NDX has failed to successfully penetrate the 1710 EW pivot point (see above post). It rallied through it and immediately retreated. This has placed pressure on the short term uptrend as noted in my blog. Several intermediate uptrend lines have now been broken, which suggests we are now in a short term correction. We can count three waves up from the mid/late October lows, and we're probably in wave 4. Still to come, another significant advance in wave 5. Posting a chart on the NAZ. Details as usual: http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Greetings: I have not been following this thread, but thought it would be a good place to ask this question. If wave 1 and 3 have the same length. Is it expected for wave 5 to have the same length or there is no rule to follow on this. Is it different, if it is in currencies, stocks or commodities ? Anybody ? Thanks !!