Confused: in your post you mentioned 40 day Rate of Change, but its attached chart shows the 14 day RSI.
Hi! Not sure I understand what you are stating. We have done four primary waves up I - IV Primary V will be minimumly subdividing as such: 1 - 2 - 3 (i - ii - iii - iv - v) - 4 - 5 We are currently in wave iii of 3 of primary V
Sorry, I am unable to actually display the MMI for various reasons. But it is a modified version of the 40 day ROC I assure you. I posted this weekend: "My Market Momentum Indicator has just this week confirmed a momentum uptrend in the NAZ, which means we have a lot more to go on the upside before we get overbought, and this advance ends. Typically the MMI confirms a momentum uptrend when it rises 8% from it's lows, and an impending intermediate term top when it reaches 15%+. In this cycle, the MMI bottomed at about - 3.5%, and has only risen to 5.25% as of friday. We remain in an uptrend." One only gets bits and pieces on ET, and thus sometimes I'm misinterpretted. to see the whole picture one neds to follow my blog: http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/...it's FREE
Tony, How do you determine the wave degree...just looking at your nasdaq chart with labels, wave 2 and i are about the same size implying to me that they should be of the same degree, no? Also with your target of 2560 for nasdaq, this V th wave will be as big as the wave III -- shouldn't wave V be much smaller than wave III? As my knowledge of EW is limited, may be I am missing something -- may be you can help clarify it a bit- thanks.
Lynx, Wave degree is interpreted by pattern. I try to start with the simplest structure (1-2-3-4-5) and work from there. In example: Waves I - II - III - IV are simple in structure; wave IV clearly did not overlap wave I. However, the advance from the Aug 2004 lows, was overlapped by the correction of the Apr 2005 advance: thus a 1 - 2, 1 - 2 structure leading to a 3 of 3 is to be anticipated. And, this is confirmed by the incomplete cycles within my MMI. Once a third wave is larger than the first, wave five can unfold in any relationship to wave one, wave three or a combination of both. In other words, it is free to unfold within it's own structure. For example; the bull market from 1982 - 2000 in the DOW. Wave 1 1982 - 1984 about 500 pts Wave 3 1984 - 1987 about 1600 pts Wave 5 1987 - 2000 astronomical pts. The bull market could have ended in 1990, at 3000, and wave 5 would have been about 1300 pts. But because of the euphoria of the Iraq War it extended from 3 years to 13 years. In other words, once wave 3 is longer than wave 1, wave 5 is on it's own. Typically, mind you, there is some sort of relationship between wave 5 and waves 1 and 3. And, I would expect that to be the situation in this bull market. Hope this helps Tony
Perhaps misperceptions arise due to spatial dimensions being distorted (skewed). Quantitative models are curve fitted due to fractal geometry exploitation. Assumptions: graph paper=> log=>linear=> Squared=>multi-dimensional non-Euclidean geometry
Its an extrapolation from that well known equation: the angle of the dangle is equal to the throb of the knob.
for those who are into such things---- glenn nealy "mastering elliott wave" will answer your questions. surfer