Objective Elliott Wave............

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gharghur2, Sep 15, 2005.

  1. Okay, you might be thinking this title is an oxymoron right? :confused:

    How can the Elliott Wave be mentioned in the same statement with the word objective, unless one states; "In EW analysis, there isn't any objectivity, it's all subjective!" :mad: I took the poll, read the comments, and don't blame anyone for their negativity.

    It is my belief, Elliott never divulged his entire discovery to the people he dealt with, and to Wall Street as a whole. Probably only to a few discrete friends, who also kept it under wraps: like Bolton, and possibly AJ Frost, etc. For the past two decades I have been applying a slightly modified EW to the stock market quite successfully, and this is the reason I make the statement above. If anyone digs deep enough and long enough into the Theory they will discovery nuances never mentioned, or they will conclude that it simply doesn't work.

    Now, I'm not going to bore you with all the details. And, I'm not going to divulge the nuances either, sorry. However, what I will do is disclose on this very post, updating from time to time, where we are in the 2002 bull market and where we might be heading. Since I do believe that this forum will be around for the next two years, I think it will be a good place to do this in addition to my blog.

    I feel if someone has a general idea of where the market is heading they can greatly enhance their profitability. Agree? I do not recommend trading, investing, or whatever on this information. It is for news and informational purposes only!

    Where we are: COMPX
    Super cycle low 1,114.11 on 10/09/02
    Cycle wave one: to consist of 5 major waves

    wave... level...... date concluded
    Major 1 1,487.94 11/27/02 bull market kickoff
    Major 2 1,271.47 03/11/03 normal correction a zigzag
    Major 3 2,153.83 01/26/04 strong extended advance
    Major 4 1,752.49 08/12/04 flat then zigzag: double 3 alternating correction
    Major 5 then subdivides into minor waves:
    minor 1 2,178.34 12/30/04 nice advance rising 24.3%
    minor 2 1,904.18 04/28/05 normal double zigzag correction
    minor 3 then subdivides into minute waves:
    minute 1 2,218.15 08/02/05 moderate advance
    minute 2 .......................... normal correction going on right now

    Where we're heading:

    minute 3 possibly a very strong advance
    minute 4 correction alternating with minute 2
    minute 5 advance completeing minor 3
    minor 4 correction alternating with minor 2
    minor 5 advance completing Major 5, and Cycle 1 and thus the bull market of 2002.

    Remember, this is for informational purposes only. Only to be used as a general guideline of a series of probabilities, no guarantees implied.

    Enjoy the ride. The bull is preparing to snort and gore some bears :eek:
  2. glenn neally is the true master of the wave. may i suggest "mastering elliott wave" as a started manual to objective wave counts.

  3. gharghur2,

    How long have you been trading *serious* money?
    People who've been trading serious money for a long time have discarded this EW bullshit.
    It preys on the human weakness to have 'certainty' or some path when the 'theory' itself allows for ALL kinds of deviations.


    How do I know? 'Been there, done that. For a long time. Years ago. It's a dumb newbie mistake.
  4. nuance, schmuance.
  5. I have known of Neally since the early '80s
  6. Been using it for over two decades.
  7. Choad


    When tested *objectively* I suspect you wouldn't use that junk anymore...

    Here is a typical scenario:

    1. EW indicates it's time to go long. (ex, stocks are down)

    2. Make the trade, stocks go up, EW sez better sell now. (or trailing stop, prof target)

    3. Conclusion: nice trade, EW sure works great.

    or just:

    1. stocks are down, 2. go long, do trailing stop or PT --> 3. nice trade.
  8. Not exactly how I use it.
    EW says we're going into a correction for the next two months: be careful...sell at highs
    EW says we're going to rally for the next 2 - 4 months: get fully invested...buy at lows
    Btw, the two month correction is nearly over.
    Appreciate your conclusions
  9. gharghur2,

    What is your opinion of EW software such as:

    1. Dynamic Trader, Robert Miner
    2. MTPredictor
    3. ELWave
    4. etc.
  10. Sorry, not familiar with any of them
    Have never used any EW software
    Thank you for asking though
    #10     Sep 17, 2005