Thank you, Doli. I have been reading him so long that it went right by me. Specificity, Jack! Quantification! Perhaps if only one sentextion of a throng, even a miniscule pentalion, posted their support? In his defense, else Liz will create a new alias and rag on me, I have been after Jack in at least nineteen guises for so long that we are locked in a death embrace. Unfortunately he doesn't enjoy it as much as I do. So this is payback. He trashes all my threads like I do his. But I do sense some defensiveness here. You see, he is as clueless about NQ as I am about ES. Uncomfortable position for an ET expert.
Bsparkyman, I regret that I do not know you well. So old now that I forget the source, but your answer is the poetic question "How can we tell the dancer from the dance?" Edit: Oh, yes, Yeats.
If I concluded that SCT works, not only would I use it, I'd defend it instead of criticizing it. I, too, object to the lack of quantitativeness. And Jack, please spare me your sorry paradigm bull. IF SCT really does work, at least some of it would be testable.
This is a little like a trial: Anything you say can and will be used against you. Lawyers don't ask questions that they don't know the answers to.
Now I am confused! Let me repeat. I am starting my critique by asserting that a fundamental assertion regarding SCT is flawed, and inviting counter opinions or experiences. Throngs of non-ES SCT traders will no doubt repspond on the non when they wake up amazed at this thread, specifically at how little meat there is among the gristle.
Great thread!!! My observations and objections to SCT would be: 1. Always in the market - reverse instead of exit. With round trip commissions less than 1 tick why stay in the market? If you are always in the market you are playing slots at the casino; if you wait for the best possible setup you are the casino. One of the best advantages of a trader is to NOT be in the market when the odds are not in his favor. 2. Lack of stop. Related to #1 above. What is to prevent a large player from playing right through your nicest orange or blue channel? 3. YM leads ES. No. probably 2 minute chart appears to lead a 5 minute chart. Try it, chart any index in 2 minute and it will appear to lead the 5 minute chart. Overlay the 10 second tick charts of both indexes, actually watch it for more than 1 or 2 instances that confirm your pet theory. 4. Cash leads Future. Watch it. Sometimes it is the reverse. I would love to be able to code up a simple high frequency routine that would be based on YM/ES or Cash/Future relationship. Trade the relationships by themselves if it works. 5. Impossible claims of success. Marty Schwartz said in an interview he broke even 200 days of the year and made his money on 50 remaining days. A rookie who was asking basic questions in February is now making more than any individual 'Market Wizard' or hedge fund. There should be a limit to what, even people on ET, should be expected to believe.... 6. Nobody trades, or has ever traded futures successfully using SCT yet SCT is the whore in the window calling 24/7 ET readers. Who is staying in the market, every day, using reverses instead of exiting? (I expect "Lots of people, all over the world." How about 1 person who will show the results?) 7. SCT is changing. In the Grob109 thread the ATeam was instructed to exit immediately as soon as a FTT was identified. This would allow the trader to exit with a wash trade if they were wrong. Spyder has 'improved' SCT to enter at point 3 and exit at a trend line break. Instead of implementing a system that is described as 'being tested over years and years', the only result trading SCT in futures has been failure. (Failure blamed on the lack of effort of individuals not on the claims or the system itself. Failure was probably trying to enter at FTT and get wash trades and always staying in the market. IMHO) 8. SCT is an 'insulated theory'. Other insulated theories include Marx view of history and class - 'if you don't understand; it shows you to be bourgeoisie; and you can never understand'. If you do not believe in (name of any religion you do not believe in) miracles; you have not been called and are damned to hell. etc., etc and on and on. Insulated theories exist because they cannot withstand rational debate. If it works why not display not only results but insist on audited results that cannot be questioned by anyone? Easy to do. Remove objections 1 to 8 above from SCT and your have the 'conventional wisdom' that is said to be improved upon with SCT. The question that should be asked is: how much of 1-8 is necessary to make money; and how much does each of the above contribute to a trader's success? Thank you for your responses.
Many traders who make claims or not post on the p/l thread. I do not and do not make claims about trading p/l. Not one posts nor claims to trade, trade like or are jack. Jack can post his p/l, even with his crayons he can post it. My 6 year old can post a picture drawn with her crayons. Why can't Jack? The sct is irrelevant to this and all threads Jack has anything to do with now. It is not difficult or effective, like jack talks about, making you think so, seeing it is like any other method, a method. You hear him teach the method, but not teach the trade, the trade is like painting like Picasso, not like drawing with your crayons. I can sell my original Picasso for tens of thousand of dollars, but my 6 year olds crayon drawing is priceless to me, and not worth anything to the market.
We can determine this when you get up an assortment of charts. Lets say I am observing your daily debriefing. Lots of charts and lits of stats on each of the key ingredients. None so far and that is the norm. Lets say you are doing a process to get something working and you routinely get into the habit of doing a routine. I expect by now you can put up the results of your effort. So do it.
Slacker, thanks for that very comprehensive list. Please help me to bring them up in time, as you make some points I would have forgotten. And please be patient, I am trying to get there in my own idiosyncratic way.