July 27, 2009 Hoven's Index: Obama's First Six Months By Randall Hoven "Provided below, in a "Harper's Index" type of format, is the progress made under President Obama so far. In some cases, data from other time periods are given to provide context. The 2008 deficit under Bush, the largest in history at the time: $459 B. CBO's estimate of Obama's 2009 deficit: $1,845 B. The total cumulative deficit in Bush's first seven years (2001-2007): $1.5 trillion. CBO's estimate of Obama's first seven deficits (2009-2015): $7.1 trillion. Average federal debt held by the public from 1980 through 2000: 40.1% of GDP. In 2008: 40.8%. Predicted for 2012: 70.1%. Predicted for 2019: 82.4%. CBO's predicted cumulative 2010-2019 deficit under laws prior to Obama's budget: $4.4 trillion. Under Obama's budget: $9.3 trillion. CBO's estimate of federal deficit increase over the next 10 years if Obama's "Affordable Health Choices Act" is enacted: $1 trillion. Net gain in number of people covered by health insurance if enacted: 16 million (of the estimated 49 million without insurance today). Obama's January 2009 prediction of peak unemployment if his stimulus is not passed: 9%. If it is passed: 8%. Actual unemployment rate, with stimulus passed, in June, 2009: 9.5%. Obama's June 2009 prediction of unemployment later in 2009: 10%. Non-farm payrolls (total employees) in December 2008: 135,074,000. In June 2009: 131,692,000. Six month job loss (difference): 3.4 million. Real GDP shrinkage in 2008, all four quarters (Q4 2007 to Q4 2008): 0.9%. Shrinkage in 2009, first quarter only: 1.4%. Change in number of foreclosures in first half of 2009: +9%. Number of bank failures in the first seven months (so far) of 2009: 57. Number in the last seven months of 2008: 22. Troop surge in Iraq (Oct. 2006 to Oct. 2007): 19% (from 144,000 to 171,000). Troop surge in Afghanistan (Sept. 2008 to June 2009): 65% (from 34,000 to 56,000). Detainees held at Guantanamo as of May, 2009: 240. Of the top 35 corporate contributors in the 2008 election cycle, the number who leaned Democrat: 21. The number who leaned Republican: 1. (That single one leaning Republican was the National Auto Dealers Association.) Number of auto dealerships being closed by Chrysler in 2009: 789, or 25%. Being closed by GM: 42%. Fraction of words mis-translated in a message from the US Secretary of State to the Russian Foreign Minister: 100% (one word of a one-word message). (English word: "reset". Translated meaning: "overload" or "overcharged".) Fraction of DVDs given by President Obama to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom that cannot be played in the UK due to format differences: 100% (25 of 25). Number of show-tunes on the iPod that President Obama gave the Queen of England: 40. Number of bows given by Obama to the King of Saudi Arabia: one (that we know of). Number of soul shakes given by Obama to Hugo Chavez: one (that we know of). http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6117242.ece Number of times Barack Obama meddled in Iran: zero. Number of times he meddled in Honduras: one or more. Number of books read per year by President Bush: "almost 100." Annualized number read by President Obama: "less than 10." Amount recovered in back-taxes owed by Obama's cabinet appointees: $162,000, at least. The exact salaries of White House staff after Obama's first-ever Presidential Memorandum "froze" them in January 2009: unknown. The amount of government employees to be cut from the Defense Department to make it leaner: none; instead, 20,000 will be added to manage weapons acquisitions. The number of pages in Obama's stimulus package: 1,071. Number of pages in Obama's health care plan: 1,018. Number of pages in the "Cap and Trade" legislation: 1,500. Number of pages in the US Constitution: about eight. Number of these pages read by the average US Congressperson: your guess. The number of prime-time news conferences given by President Bush in eight years: 4. Number given by President Obama in six months: 4. President Obama's overall approval rating on his first day in office (Jan. 21): 65%. His most recent approval rating (July 24): 49%. Number of times a legal challenge to John McCain's status as a "natural-born citizen" has received a full court hearing and a written ruling: one. Number of times for Barack Obama: zero."
Yawn. Another Obama "bashing" post from someone that has nothing better to do on the Summer vacation home from college. By the way, your "objective" reporting forgot about the part where the Dow Jones is +1100 points higher than when Obama was sworn into office. Two terms of Bush and 8 years later saw the Dow -2000 points lower. But hey, you wouldn't want to make light of those FACTS, now would you? Do you work for Faux News???
You have the mic: where is the DOW going? This is your chance to charm us with the genius of your chart reading abilities. We've corrected 34% of the entire down move and you're calling a bull market because of Obama? 3/03 we went from 7416 to 14,198 in 10/07. I suppose that bull run, because it was under evil Bush, you were shorting the whole way up!? Obama needs to get us to around 13,300 to match Bush. Will he do it? Make the call so it's recorded in the history books for us all to learn from.
Your logic is so totally "twisted" that it literally defies a response. Bush sworn into office: 1/17/2001 Dow at: 10,584 Bush leaves office: 1/20/2009 Dow at: 7,949 Dow (loss): 2,635 points. Once again, you show us that you are without a doubt the dumbest poster on ET. All this coming from the guy that believes that the GOP does not need a party LEADER now, with the 2010 midterm elections right around the corner. But hey, what do you expect from someone that continues to misspell the word separate.
You've just demonstrated that you're not a trader. You're a buy and hold investor who's still holding. Now post a chart and tell me where the Dow is going!
Landis - I'll help you out. Here is a chart, that I'm sure you'll agree, is where the DOW is headed under Obama after 4 years. A nice break of the all time high to the 1.618 extension. Hell, I think we'll punch right through and touch 20,000 before we see any pullbacks. Get long baby! Don't you agree? With a Harvard grad as Pres who is so economically savvy, not to mention a political genius and a transcender of race, this country and economy are going make us all filthy rich!! You and I will have to get together though and figure out how we're going to disguise ourselves from being millionares after this run otherwise Obama is going to see us as evil and take it all back to pay for some fatties health care plan.
Leave it to your "pea-brain" and childish twisted logic to come to such a conclusion. It's obviously not even worth my time responding to your ignorance anymore. You are without a doubt the DUMBEST poster to ever post on ET. I believe that has been proven time and time again over the last couple of days. Good Luck with your college degree. But I have a feeling that you might be better served seeking a trade school since your brain-power is so "limited".
What? You, the resident tough guy ET challenger is backing down from a challenge? You can't even post a chart and make a simple prediction? Seems like an easy call based on your logic. Come on tough guy, get in the cockpit, be a man! My childish twisted logic is simply from you implying that you weren't able to profit under Bush because the DOW finished -2000 after his term. But 6 months into Obama's 4 year term, your candyass panties are all in a bunch full of joy over the DOW. So step up and make a call. You're a buy and holder at best still holding and you're pissed your profits got wiped out since Cramer never told you to sell. You love to hear Obama blaming Bush for taking your money and love it even more that Obama has pledged to make sure he gets that money back to its rightful owner.