I think the analysis the White House is using below is flawed. After the GOP convention, the party will come together under the winner whom ever it is. And, as Clinton was told in the '90s, 'It's the economy, stupid'. ......With polls, including The Times survey, showing Herman Cain still leading the GOP field, and with the former pizza executive still leading in the key state of Iowa as well as in South Carolina and Georgia, the administration has come to believe that the most likely nominee, Mitt Romney, is in the vernacular, a "dog that won't hunt." What that means is that with effectively 3 out of 4 Republicans not willing to support Mitt Romney, and with his numerous flip flops on abortion, health care, and the environment on his record, the White House believes that by running a negative campaign against the former Massachusetts governor, they will be able to win back independent voters whose support was so critical in 2008 to the president's victory. And if Herman Cain, by some fluke, does wind up as the GOP nominee, the Obama administration believes that the businessman's flip flops, gaffes, and frankly bizarre behavior on the campaign trail will all help to easily reelect the president. But there is yet a third reason for the president's confidence beyond the obvious division on the Republican side and a new approach to the presidential campaign. The White House believes that by adopting a populist mantle, embracing Occupy Wall Street and anti-Washington sentiment, that the incumbent can make himself into the outsider again. And while this is a stretch, the Republicans have not been able to develop any sort of coherent message on either jobs, or on tax or budgetary policy or to distinguish themselves from the extraordinarily low ratings that the Congressional party and their leadership gathers...... Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011...ly-convinced-will-be-reelected/#ixzz1c7Lh44uB
I reckon the GOP convention will be nothing more than a spectacle of internecine warfare and the eventual GOP runner will have a sliver of a majority support among Republican lawmakers and voters.
If the economy does not improve dramatically, the republicans could nominate Bernie Madoff and win. Independents and non-political people make up their minds gradually, but once they've decided someone is the wrong guy for the job, it's over. I think they have largely reached this conclusion about Obama. His increasingly demagogic rhetoric and open calls to class warfare and embrace of OWS scum will only deepen their doubts about him. He is making himself vulnerable to the kind of attack McCain should have made, namely that he is a far-left socialist radical whose ideas are alien to our tradition and dangerous for the middle class. Cain would pose a dire threat to Obama, for obvious reasons. If only a small percentage of the AA vote left Obama for Cain, Obama would face a huge challenge in a number of border states he carried last time. The nominee will also have the opportunity to select a VP candidate who has a good chance of pulling a battelground state into the republican column, eg Rubio, Christie, Kasich.