I appreciate your honesty in recognizing the role race may play. But I doubt Obama will fail to carry a single state that Kerry did. Not only that, but Obama has mounted a sophisticated strategy to put Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in play. Moreover, I think he'll nab Ohio, which cost Kerry the election, and that anyone who is now putting Florida in McCain's column is premature at best. But Obama doesn't need Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico to win; he only needs maybe 2 of the 6 (3 would give him an electoral lock).
The point is, that Obama may lose some of the close states that lean Republican. Whites who say they lean Obama, often think differently when in the pollbox. That has been a known phenomena for years. And if McCain chooses a VP along the lines I set above, he has an excellent chance of winning. This is what I think will start happening in October. Attack ads, playing over and over again, in swing states, those dicey little segments, "What Jim Wright thinks about you. Why did Obama wait 20 years to get offended???"
Just noticed Arnie's reply to my post. Sorry about the hang time. Every little bit helps, I agree. I have always supported opening the OCS, ANWR and the like to responsible oil exploration. That doesn't change the fact that the Republicans are both wrong and dirty in maligning Obama's tire inflation comments, which were absolutely correct. The ugly truth is that the US simply cannot solve its energy problems at the drill bit, whereas we can (and will have to) solve them with a combination of conservation and alternatives. Drilling is a good interim measure but that is all it is. This is not a statement of ideology or preference; it's simple geophysical fact. The 66B barrels of oil in that study are mostly in areas like the deepwater Gulf which are already open to exploration. From the same study, only 17.84B of those 66.6B barrels of reserves are in areas currently off limits to exploration. If we very generously assume that those 17.84B barrels will be discovered, developed, and flowing at a 1% rate in 2030, that amounts to less than 500,000 bpd, higher than the EIA estimate but in the same ballpark. That is also an amount that is easily in ballpark of conservation achievable with very rudimentary measures like better tire inflation. "Supposed logic" is right; you must have supposed that was my logic, because in fact I said nothing of the sort. Martin
Obama supporters, get your copy of Tom Petty's "free fallin" while they last. http://www.amazon.com/Free-Fallin/dp/B000WOWR00
I never would have believed this could happen. Of course, this is the democratic party we're talking about. If any organization can fuck up a sure thing, it's the dems. By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent 1 hour, 59 minutes ago WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday. ADVERTISEMENT McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
It was just a coincidence - just like the Georgia conflict. You know - people quickly change their minds like that - it happens all the time. Americans are not that stupid that they will fall for this geopolitical powerplay - they surely will see it for what it is, just like they will never vote for a really stupid damaging president - or at least not the continued abhorrent politics, right? The perfect rationale for a slight McCain win in the election now - unless Obama comes out pretty strong on the foreign relations issue and talks a strong alternative ... hopefully a united allies alternative. US politics is so utterly fucked up ... and the only country with similar main cultural background where religion is at the center. They should get some e-democracy and representative direct democracy to at least get closer to some accountability and not have the oligarchy of today.
Saying the word "change" over and over again in speeches doesnt mean anything will change. Just my opinion though.