Democratic firewall in Clark County now at 25,000; GOP playing catchup in Washoe UPDATED AT 9:45 AM: The SOS now has the following state numbers after a morning tally (not all numbers in for Day 4): 210,484 have voted by mail or early voting. 48 percent are Democrats and 35.5 percent are Republicans. The raw vote lead is about 21,000 votes. So if 90 percent of partisans are voting for each guy and let's say Romney is winning indies by 10 points (which would be big), he would still be behind by more than 13,000 votes. After four days of early/mail voting, the Democrats have a massive lead in Clark County and the Republicans are not doing as well as they need to in Washoe County. The Democrats added about 5,000 voters to their lead in Clark while the GOP won Washoe by about 200 voters out of more than 9,000 cast. The Democrats now have a 25,000-voter lead in Clark and about 1,200 in Washoe. It's still relatively early, but the trend keeps looking familiar to those of us who have watched this cycle after cycle. The only difference this cycle is how huge the turnout is -- 30 percent higher in Clark than four years ago. The Republicans are doing better than the 2008 disaster, but not well enough yet to indicate they can stop the Democrats from banking enough votes to hold off any advantage for the GOP on Election Day. The real question is whether this high turnout presages that Election Day will mean even less than it usually does, or whether we are headed for a record turnout this election. Or both. It was 80 percent in 2008. But with almost a fifth of voters already having cast ballots only four days in -- and the second week of early voting is usually larger -- it may well be higher than that. I don't want to extrapolate too much with this much data, but it seems clear the Republicans need either a larger turnout differential and a substantial win for Mitt Romney among unaffiliated and third-party voters. The numbers in Clark, with early and absentees tallied: Democrats -- 73,531, or 50 percent Republicans -- 48,169, or 33 percent Others -- 24,637, or 17 percent So Democrats are 4 points above their Clark registration and Republicans are about 2 points above. One quick scenario: Suppose each candidate is holding 90 percent of the base and Romney is winning others by 10 points. That would mean President Obama already has a 19,000 vote lead in Clark -- after four days! (Have I mentioned no poll shows Romney winning idies by that much -- indeed, some show it even or Obama ahead.)
Obama Campaign Sees Early-Vote Edge By Devin Dwyer | ABC OTUS News â 21 hrs ago DAYTON, O.H. - President Obama's top campaign advisers today said early-voting returns in several battleground states show Democrats with an edge over Republicans in courting so-called "sporadic voters," those Americans who would not otherwise vote and could tilt the scale in a tight race. "We are outperforming our early-vote margins in key states compared to 2008. We're ahead of where we were against McCain, and more importantly, we're ahead of Mitt Romney," said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina on a conference call with reporters. "Romney may be winning more raw votes than McCain did at this time, but look the facts are important here. And the numbers tell a very clear story." Messina said that the campaign's growth in early-vote margins, borne out both in state election data and in public polling of early voters, is a net gain for Democrats since many early voters are people who likely would not have otherwise voted. The process was widely credited with helping Obama win several swing states in 2008. "Early vote isn't only taking a finite number of voters and only changing the day they vote. â¦. What early vote does is help us get out our low propensity voters-voters called sporadic voters-which broadens our universe and frees up more 'get out the vote' resources later, especially on election day," Messina claimed. "This is about increasing the overall share of people, who may be drop out voters. And our numbers and public numbers are showing that more Obama sporadic voters are voting than Romney sporadic voters, which is a very big piece of business for the total turnout," he said. Public polls show Obama holds double-digit leads among people who have already voted in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, states where in-person early voting is allowed. Obama also leads in North Carolina. The U.S. Elections Project at George Mason University tracks all public early voting data HERE . The data are not considered good indicators of the ultimate electoral outcome in any given state, but do provide a snapshot of voter engagement and the campaigns' ability to bank votes ahead of time. "Here is the most important thing to remember 14 days out: We're tied or ahead in every battleground state, and we're not leaving any place where we are tied or ahead," he said. "Romney has not been able to knock us out of a single battleground, and we've forced him to spend more and more resources in states like North Carolina that the Romney campaign has said they wanted locked up a long time ago."
I dont think Gallup does state polling.Romney is + 3 in Gallups national poll and Obama has a 53 % approval rating on Gallup Obama is leading in RCPs average in NV,Wisconsin,Iowa and Ohio