On the premise that "it's the economy, stupid", I don't see any "fading". "U.S. Manufacturing Powers Up in October (Industry Week â Agence France-Presse) Manufacturing activity has expanded for 15 consecutive months Unexpectedly, manufacturing unexpectedly picked up steam in October, raising hopes for a strong final quarter that could underpin a flagging economic recovery, a key industry survey showed on Nov. 1. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) said its survey of purchasing managers nationwide revealed strong gains in new orders and production, pushing up its index to 56.9%, from 54.5% in September. The surge was much stronger than a dip to 54% expected by most analysts. "The ISM index posted a surprisingly strong rebound in light of the report last week that the general economy remains in a growth slump," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. "The important reason for the October rebound is the reversal of the trade situation. Export growth reportedly surged while import growth backed off. In other words, less domestic spending was drained away to support foreign manufacturing and more production was directed to domestic producers. "Manufacturers have experienced parts availability problems for the last six months and have been slow to ramp up production allowing imports to fill the void," he added. "The ISM report suggests that, at last, the import surge in manufactured goods may be subsiding with all the beneficial side effects (rising orders, production, and employment). Today's ISM report is good news for U.S. manufacturing." Manufacturing activity has expanded for 15 consecutive months but momentum had been slowing since April. The October jump suggested new life in the sector that has been a key driver of the recovery after recession officially ended in June 2009. "This month's report signals a continuation of the recovery that began 15 months ago, and its strength raises expectations for growth in the balance of the quarter," said Norbert Ore, head of the ISM's manufacturing business survey committee."
and yet prices paid surged 8.2% from last month's reading, and ben and his pals are about to unleash large amounts of Quantitative Worthlessness this afternoon. food prices, clothing prices, everything headed higher. oh, and forgot about that useless thing called gasoline. see you at $100 (in a month?). this will do wonders for "the economy". the idiot pundits interviewed in the above article are just that - idiots.
I wouldn't go so far as to call them "idiots", it's not their intent in that piece to report on conditions for labor. But you're mentioning QE... are you saying you believe we're in demand inflation conditions?
perhaps "idiot" was too strong. replace with "naive" if it suits you. i'm not sure i understand what you mean by "demand inflation" conditions. if what you mean is stagflation (ie, goods that are necessary like food and energy skyrocket while wages stagnate or decline) then my answer is unequivocally YES. the problem is that the fed cannot create demand. it wants to create inflation so people spend more and save less (asinine if you ask me) but if people are spending more on the same goods in order to just survive, how on earth can they spend more in the discretionary economy in order to drive spending? throw into that factor that joblessness continues, and will likely get worse (because business must pay higher prices and cannot always pass on those prices to the consumer, thereby shrinking margin), and the fact that more and more are unemployed past their 99 weeks (and this stands no chance of being extended by an angry republican house committed to fiscal conservative"ness" - or so they say) and you have an economy al' a jimmy carter all over again. benny and the inkjets could release $10 trillion into the economy, but that wont create jobs, wont create WAGE inflation, and thereby wont create spending. pushing on a string, if you will.
Obama does not deserve a second term but we can count on the Republicans to nominate a candidate so repugnant (Palin, say) that Obama wins anyway.
I could see Palin in a cabinet role but not Executive or Veep. On the other hand she could probably personally persuade me otherwise.
I can't address everything you said just now, but what I meant by demand inflation is (I had to use wiki on myself) technically called demand-pull inflation... the classic "too many dollars chasing too few goods". But from where I sit, it's input costs that are rising, thus we're more in a cost-push environment.
i agree on the input cost rising, which is why i made the case i did. too many dollars chasing too few goods (classic textbook inflation) only works when those "too many dollars" get in the hands of the general public. it doesn't work when only the banks get the money. that creates the input cost rise we're seeing now. i guess you could argue that it's too many dollars chasing too few commodities on the speculative level.