Obama Circling The Wagons In Just 4 Swing States

Discussion in 'Politics' started by pspr, Oct 17, 2012.

  1. pspr


    But that strategy that may not work. Even if Obama wins NH, NV, OH, IA and Romney takes FL, CO, WI, MI, VA, NC it gives Romney 283 electoral college votes to 255 for Obama.

    What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

    It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

  2. 377OHMS


    I'm starting to harbor some actual hope here for our country.

    Of course, the cities are going to burn no matter who wins but what is a few burned out cities compared to the preservation of democracy?
  3. pspr


    It will just be the gettos that will burn. They need to be razed anyway.
  4. Wishful thinking at its finest.Might as well throw in CA,NY and Mass since its all fantasy anyway
  5. Epic


    Romney won't get MI or WI. Just not gonna happen. If that is true, then he needs two or three of the states that Obama is dumping money into. That is just the reality here and Obama knows it.

    If Obama loses either MI or WI it is likely that he loses in a landslide because that would mean a HUGE nationwide shift toward Romney. So the obvious states to focus on are the ones that he can stop a close Romney victory. That is OH, NV, NH, and IA. Romney needs OH and any one of the other three to win. If he doesn't get OH, he needs all three of the others.

    IA and OH is the easiest path for Romney. Assuming he gets FL, NC, VA, and CO which are leaning his direction now.
  6. pspr


    The latest polls show WI by 1% and MI by 3%+. I think these are easily reachable with the current momentum Romney has. The debate last night was really bad for Obama becuse the metrics are showing that Romney won on the economy & finance and Obama won on who would you like to baby sit your kids. Really - that was a question!

    Right, Ohio may come along too since that is about a 1 point race now.
  7. Strip out the copper pipe and wire from those buildings before the 6th. :D :( :eek:
  8. Epic


    The point is that if Romney wins in MI that would indicate a very large national shift, so this isn't even a race anymore. There is no reason for Obama to focus any more resource there than he does for say Oregon. He has enough of a stronghold in WI and MI that he will win them by simply maintaining his current level of national popularity.

    OH, CO, NV, IA, and NH are different. He can still maintain his current national popularity and end up losing those to a strong Romney showing. That opens the door very wide for a Romney win in a close race. Obama's only concern right now is how to effect the outcome of a close race. MI, PA, and WI have no place in that conversation.
  9. pspr


    I strongly dissagree. Wisconsin is definately winable without a "national shif" as you state. And while Michigan is a little wider for Obama, those states are important. To compare them with Oregon is laughable.

    Here's were we see the states Romney and the Pacs are targeting with ad buys:

    The Romney campaign is even spending heavily in states where Mr. Obama has led by notable margins, including a roughly $1 million advertising buy this week in Wisconsin. Mr. Obama and the super PAC supporting him have decreased their ad buys there, betting that the president's lead is safe after a blitz of TV ads and two visits to the state by the president, including his largest rally of the year last week, in Madison.

    Romney allies are poised to empty their hefty bank accounts during the campaign's final weeks. Restore Our Future, a pro-Romney super PAC, said it is launching a $6.3 million ad buy in Florida, Iowa and Virginia this week—after spending money in just one state, Wisconsin, last week. On Oct. 23, it will launch a $14 million blitz in nine states (I presume Oregon isn't one of them), the tracking data show.