Regretably, no. There is no Reagan-like threat lurking in the shadows like there was for Carter. At present, the Right has no viable counterpunch to Obama, and until characters like Palin or Bachmann are pushed into obscurity no one is going to step up. The only way he is finished is if we have a "deer in the headlights" moment for Obama like Carter and Iran. Looked like we may have been getting there recently, but not yet. There's still time.
Not as long as 99% of blacks continue to "vote for the black guy" despite overwhelming evidence that black leaders have done far more harm than good for "their people"
while not reagan-like, didn't Tim Pawlenty just come out and announce his candidacy? i caught the second half of his interview last night on hannity - it certainly seemed that way from how they were talking. i dont know a whole lot about him, but i've heard him speak a number of times (not live) and he has my interest thus far.
obama didnt win because of the black vote. he won because of the independent vote. if the independents have enough of him, and all evidence is pointing in that direction, obama can get 100% of the black vote and it won't be enough.
Actually it WAS the black vote which put him in the WH... about 96-98%, if I recall. Had the black vote been split along the usual partisan lines of 55-45 or so, Odumbo wouldn't have won.
if you're only going to look at the black voters, then you can make that argument. but you can't. you have to look at the whole ball of wax. without the independent voters (non-party affiliates) he could get all the black vote and still lose.
You have to remember '76 (or maybe research it) but Carter's election was more about a refute of Ford and the Republican Party, similar to what Obama was in '08. The difference is that Repubs had a seasoned and charismatic contender who lost the nomination to a sitting President but was in a strong position to win it 4 years later. The only one who comes close to that today would be maybe Romney, but he has his own baggage dragging him down that a comparable Reagan did not.