So 'nobody knows' if the Republican presidential candidate broke the law? Well this sounds like an airtight case to me.
No,but they did a good job calling the 2004 ,2008 ,2010 and Wisconsin recall elections better then anyone else. Elections are different then a 9 person SC decision though
do you actually have the charts of these races or are you just giving us the night before. I would like to see this for myself. a 6 month chart would be interesting.
Bush /Kerry Obama /McCain 2008 House 2008 Senate 2010 House(From July until election day they had Republicans taking the House over 50) Wisconsin recall( Had Walker over 50 the life of the contract)
walker did not really get accurate til a month out. not that I would have expected them too as he did not know his opponent. But a lot of those other contracts had 50 50 points before spreading out as election got near. I do not see any prognostication ability this far out... at least not worth betting on. I could have told you bush was killing kerry in august when intrade had them even. House control in 2010 was even until july - joke. everyone but the media knew Dems were going to get run out. From these examples - intrade is just a toy.
Walker over 50= Walker winning. Had Walker over 50 the entire contract which started in April From June to election day Intrade had Bush over 50 all but 2-3 weeks From Jan 07 to election day Intrade had Obama over 50 all but 2-3 weeks From July to election day they had the winner over 50 in all the other races So far Obama always over 50 in 2012
I see thin markets which mean little to nothing depending on when you take a look at them. I would also note Obama is dropping like a stone... he is down to 56.5% as we speak. This far out Intrade means nothing.
Yet they had the winner over 50 the majority of the time months away from the election,like they have Obama now
Rasmuessen only had Romney over 50 once this year yet you predict a Romney win based off that.Different standards ?