NZD/USD and the Downtrend ..!!

Discussion in 'Forex Trading' started by NAASH, Feb 16, 2007.

  1. NAASH

    NAASH

    NZD-USD is under pressure by fibo 61.8 and one month old downtrend ..

    entering short from 0.6960 with a tight stop and a 60 pips target is a good idea for short-term traders like me :D .

    :cool:
     
  2. NAASH

    NAASH

    eur- gbp broke an eight months old downtrend which should help it to go beyond 0.6800 :)

    with divergence on macd an stochastic indicator, i am going to buy from 0.6710 and stop @ 0.6680 and 50 to 70 pips target is enough ..:cool: ..
     
  3. NAASH

    NAASH

    sorry the previous chart was a DAILY CHART , and when we have a closer look for the 4 hours chart , we see that there is a GAP-UP around 0.6718 area and an old GAP- DOWN around the same area(9-01-2007).

    so that means that the old gap-down is covered now and the new gap-up will take the price higher until any candle closes under 0.6718 , and that means the 0.6718 is the now a support .

    so i will change the order and the new one is:

    Buy@ 0.6725
    stop@ 0.6710 ( 15 pips only )
    target 50 to 70 pips:( :D
     
  4. NAASH

    NAASH

    and something more to add insult to injury, there is a gap down which took place on 25th of jan (0.6978) same area of fibo 61.8 (0.6968) and downtrend (0.6973) .. technically this trade is analysts dream ..

    i will rise my stop (0.6990+spread) and targeting 40-60 pips :cool:
     

  5. Markets are going to be thin until Tuesday. Don't be surprised if some try and take advantage of this and push price to knock out stops using the low volume to their advantage. I agree with you though. Also as the rate decision for JPY comes closer there should be some position covering in the NZD/JPY which should cause the other NZD pairs to come under attack as well. Good Luck!
     
  6. NAASH

    NAASH

    hi mmccormac,

    i agree with u 100%, but why dont we give it a shot bcoz technically we have a valid point .

    Actually, the position was activated last friday, so there is no way out :D .
     
  7. NZD/USD is a sell
    for .6750 ( at around the 15 march)


    % sure Long Long PT Long S/L _______ Short Short PT Short S/L
    68.4% 0.6917 0.6959 0.6867 _______ 0.7081 0.7043 0.7126
    73.1% 0.6909 0.6962 0.6856 _______ 0.7089 0.7041 0.7135
    78.4% 0.6897 0.6966 0.6846 _______ 0.7099 0.7037 0.7144
    84.3% 0.6883 0.6971 0.6835 _______ 0.7112 0.7033 0.7154
    90.1% 0.6864 0.6977 0.6822 _______ 0.7128 0.7027 0.7167
    95.0% 0.6841 0.6985 0.6802 _______ 0.7149 0.7020 0.7184
    98.3% 0.6811 0.6995 0.6773 _______ 0.7176 0.7011 0.7210
    99.7% 0.6772 0.7008 0.6730 _______ 0.7211 0.7000 0.7248
    100.0% 0.6722 0.7025 0.6671 _______ 0.7256 0.6985 0.7301




    This cross as well


    NZD/JPY

    % sure Long Long PT Long S/L _______ Short Short PT Short S/L
    68.4% 83.1476 83.6461 82.5439 _______ 84.8114 84.4054 85.3031
    73.1% 83.0429 83.6810 82.4232 _______ 84.8967 84.3770 85.4014
    78.4% 82.9089 83.7256 82.3015 _______ 85.0058 84.3406 85.5005
    84.3% 82.7374 83.7828 82.1700 _______ 85.1455 84.2941 85.6076
    90.1% 82.5179 83.8560 82.0081 _______ 85.3243 84.2345 85.7395
    95.0% 82.2369 83.9497 81.7798 _______ 85.5532 84.1582 85.9254
    98.3% 81.8772 84.0696 81.4357 _______ 85.8461 84.0605 86.2056
    99.7% 81.4168 84.2230 80.9259 _______ 86.2211 83.9356 86.6209
    100.0% 80.8274 84.4195 80.2202 _______ 86.7010 83.7756 87.1956

    EUR/NZD is a buy tho

    % sure Long Long PT Long S/L _______ Short Short PT Short S/L
    68.4% 1.8597 1.8707 1.8464 _______ 1.9008 1.8883 1.9160
    73.1% 1.8574 1.8715 1.8437 _______ 1.9035 1.8875 1.9190
    78.4% 1.8544 1.8725 1.8410 _______ 1.9068 1.8863 1.9220
    84.3% 1.8507 1.8737 1.8381 _______ 1.9111 1.8849 1.9253
    90.1% 1.8458 1.8753 1.8346 _______ 1.9166 1.8831 1.9294
    95.0% 1.8396 1.8774 1.8295 _______ 1.9237 1.8807 1.9351
    98.3% 1.8317 1.8801 1.8219 _______ 1.9327 1.8777 1.9437
    99.7% 1.8215 1.8835 1.8107 _______ 1.9442 1.8739 1.9565
    100.0% 1.8085 1.8878 1.7951 _______ 1.9590 1.8689 1.9742


    GL :D