Not a pundit, but want express what I think about it since I am in. * macd Divergence on H4 chart, confirmed by momentum diver. as well as sri diver which is above 60. * just bounced back from the top, which was made on the 3d of January, 2007 (0.7095) *Check the weekly chart. H&D right shoulder is forming.. possible continues decline. I went short @0.7083.. will stop as soon as red horizontal line on macd will be crossed. Gl
I went short overnight (Sydney time) a few ticks lower than you, so sitting with a small loss at the moment as it hits 71 cents. The thought of the kiwi going to 72 or 73 and sitting there for any length of time just boggles my (American) mind. This has to come down to 68-67 over the next two months or so, no? Fundamentalists out there?
There is a lot of pressure on the RBNZ to increase interest rates, which they will likely do, which could see the possibility of NZD going to 0.80.
Last thing I read in the Fin was that things were looking like they were slowing down in NZ ... And a .80 Kiwi, with a normal spread over the AUD/US would mean, what a .90 cent AUD/US?!?!?!?! Could happen some day, but ......
nravo, i am about to shoot myself in my foot ,but this does not look like a short to me. Daily looks long and my back of envelope calcs say that it is heading to 7290. lets see what happens ! GL
I agree, to some degree. A rate hike looks likely next week, but the question is how much of that is built in to the prices (I do futures; not cash Forex, btw.) A NZD/USD in the 70s is not sustainable, IMHO. Long-term Kiwi is heading for a fall, the only question is when and how much pain you can take waiting.
I would echo the hesitancy to short these levels. One must take precaution when shorting any carry mainstay. RSI is not yet overbought on the daily, and MACD @ .0034 may still have a good while to run. The weekly is showing even further distance from optimum overbought levels. It could very well breakout to new highs if rates are raised further.