Do you mean to say the economy moves in cycles? "1928 Market Crash" ... LOL! Nostrodomous, you're not.
Lets start with your first post; you believe Krugman will win the Nobel prize one day. Not hardly. He may win the Pulitzer, though, as that award tends to go to America bashing socialists. Krugman is the type of economist that only a New York liberal can love. He is typical of the type of tripe they put on NPR. He is suppose to write about economics, but anymore it pure social commentary so far to the left it would make Molly Ivins blush.
. Mbradley: Lets start with your first post; you believe Krugman will win the Nobel prize one day. ********* May 21, 2006 SouthAmerica: There are a handful of economists that I read on a regular basis and respect their opinion, and Paul Krugman is among them. I am sure he will receive the Nobel Prize for Economics in the future. In my opinion he is one of the best economists the US has today. I happen to agree with a lot of things Paul Krugman writes about. The other two economists that I respect and read their writings are: Stephen Roach, (from Morgan Stanley) and Martin Wolf (from The Financial Times â UK). ********** Pattersb: Do you mean to say the economy moves in cycles? "1928 Market Crash" ... LOL! Nostrodomous, you're not. ********** SouthAmerica: No â I am not talking about Nostradamus. I am talking about the real deal - Nikolai Kondratieff. Do you know who Kondratieff was? A Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratieff, published a study in 1926 showing that a very long-term economic cycle existed. His major premise was that capitalist economies had a pattern of long wave cycles of boom and bust. The bust cycle repeated itself approximately every 60 years. If you had read Kondratieff's paper in 1926, you would have known that an economic depression was around the corner. Kondratieff identified four distinct phases the economy goes through during each cycle: 1) Inflationary growth, 2) Stagflation, 3) Deflationary growth, and finally 4) Depressionâfalling prices, falling stock prices, falling profits, debt collapse. As the stock market is collapsing, a number of corporate scandals emerge such as Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing, Adelphia Communications, Arthur Anderson and many others. As the debt load reaches new highs in the economy, the result is a record-breaking number of personal and corporate bankruptcies, as is the case in the US today. Believe me - the new global depression is coming and it is right on schedule. .
It would provide incredible trading opportunities in the short-run, followed by years of dead, choppy trading. No thanx.
Stephen Roach........... Stephen has positioned his Economic logic with respect to an unsustainable debt bubble... written in 2004... http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/Economic-Armageddon23nov04.htm Sound familiar...??? ..................................................................................... Indeed it is logical to assume that the US will not sustain a borrowing rate which implies money imports of over 80% of other countries savings... What has happened since 2000 ($7 trillion loss)was the Greenspan modus of steering value increases per capita in housing....and the only way to smooth the way down is to allow for gradual inflation... You see moronic assumptions all the time such as oil is going much further than $75 per barrel ...when the worlds population makes $100 to $700 per month and uses collectively more than the US....The US population makes several times that...however this is like fools gold because the savings rate is zero... And why should the US public save when the yield on a $1,000,000 cash is less than $30,000 before taxes...??? It is not normal to see workers savings not being rewarded... And who is responsible ...the companies that lend the money....that make money when debt is created....The allowance of mortgage lenders for easy money...and the failed model of sustainable housing values have created the DEBT BUBBLE.... When the DEBT BUBBLE is finished...normal savings rates will be re-established... In this case ...INFLATION...will bail out the banks...and will have the appearance of rewarding savings... The holders of dollars will have been given discounted IOUs...and the US will win by rewarding the low interest debt holders with losses.... The reason M3 is hidden is to keep non US debt buyers in the gray... The best that Bernake can do is to allow for slow transitioning and thus the fight against disruptive and abrupt change...
Is it even that much? Since the inflation rate is higher than money market/CD/short term paper yields, the 'cash' portion of every portfolio loses net purchasing power every day. ...And then the government adds insult to injury by extracting a tax on your so-called 'gains', which aren't even gains at all, since inflation is higher than the money market yields to begin with. Bottom line: Is there any way for the cash portion of my portfolio to keep up with inflation (even assuming the CPI is accurate)?
Paul Krugman will not win a Nobel prize. He has done no original research or thinking. He is out of the discredited mold of JK Galbraith and JM Keynes. What he is qualified to do is have lunch with Jeffery Sachs and Robert Rubin while they sit around dreaming up new ways to redistribute other peoples wealth as they centrally plan third world economies.
You should hope they do figure out new ways to redistribute that wealth, fairly of course. If no one does, the rich will find their heads on pikes or in baskets (again).
. Mbradley: He is out of the discredited mold of JK Galbraith and JM Keynes. *********** May 22, 2006 SouthAmerica: Do you understand Keynesian Theory? Do you think Keynes is discredited in the US today? Never in the history of the world a country used so much deficit spending to prop up its economy as the United States have been doing since the fools who are running the US economy started doing it since January of 2001. I do read the articles of Jeffrey Sachs when published by the NY Times or in other publications. Robert Rubin was an excellent Treasury Secretary and 100 times better than the buffoon that we have today. .
If anything, its going to come from asset erosion, creating a gap between outstanding and collateral derivatives