Um, so? Reserve orders on ECNs have only had to show 100 for years, so I don't understand what the big deal is. When I saw this thread, I was tempted to chime in and speak... but as long as you guys think that tape reading is dead, you won't try to compete with me for fills. How can analyzing supply/demand through the prints ever die? That's like saying charting doesnt work! While I've read both your and Hydroblunt's posts and you guys seem observant and intelligent, you guys must be missing something... the market being saturated with idiot boxes and not having a specialist to fuck you on your fills doesn't change fundamental supply/demand and market feel/rhythm... to assume that because you guys (if you were ever tapereaders) can't adapt that others can't is incredibly hubristic... FXWill I sent you a PM...
I made a very simple argument, if you think Tape Reading alive & well, then why is the focus on NYSE? Go taperead Nasdaq stocks or S&P futs. It is possible, I won't deny it, but nowhere to the extent of what NYSE tape reading was, when it was a strategy by itself, to the point where you did not even need charts, just Time & Sales. And while relatively simple in itself, it was not a monkey strategy or hitting bids with bullets, it was pure tapereading as is described in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". Going electronic toward fragmented order flow took away a lot of tape reading's power. It is no longer a strategy but really a tool. What started happening on Nasdaq years back is that a buyer would randomly mix up his routes for execution, hence creating noise. That's what the institutions started paying Goldman & rest big bucks for, order execution algos. The situations created had multiple variables, hence more uncertainty, hence higher risk for the same reward. And if you are still stuck on NYSE, because you feel the specialist still has some edge and gives a certain indication by staying on the right side, I suggest you keep up with current events. Even NYSE Hybrid is going out the window, it's going 100% electronic, just like Nasdaq.
I agree that the NYSE and NASDAQ are essentailly the same, however I am not as familiar with all the buy and sell programs in NASDAQ stocks (some I am) as I am in NYSE stocks. It's not that I think staying on the right side of the specialist is an edge anymore. I am 100% up to date on all events. This is my business, without it I could not maintain my lifestyle and would have to go get a real job. I think the fragmentation of order flow is only an annoyance in certain situations. Even fragmented, a large order in an illiquid market has a limit on how discreetly it can be executed. I started trading right with the advent of the hybrid market, and am one of the few profitable scalpers I know. I guess I missed the easy days, so I don't have perspective, but I can trade without charts, with just a book and time and sales, and make money 15 out of 20 days from recognizing orders being worked... I'd be willing to send you my runs from the past few weeks to discuss specific setups, so long as you agree not to send them elsewhere (though anyone who's smart enough to go through all my runs, look at the time and sales, and figure out my edge enough to actually take my fills... is probably already making money and successful anyway).
Tapereading as high art is dead. However scrawls that are weighted by volume can prove useful when you spot a stock you haven't seen get action in a long time suddenly show up, even with a small gain. It's worth pursuing the research. I've done unscientific studies in which removed from a computer I tried to come up with investments simply studding the Bloomberg or CNBC ticker, I found it very easy to scalp daily but LT didn't get anywhere..... I live in NYC but don't do Skype, if you ever want to throw an idea or two my way feel free to do so, I'm always willing to share as well. Just by tapereading I would buy CKSW today but based on The Fed and my research and need to get back weighted in the financials... I most likely will go with Discover Card DFS. ~ stoney
I take this back. I watched more NASDAQ stocks today than I have in the past and it's the same shit. NASDAQ is as easy or difficult to trade and tape read as NY.
Teach me to think about the market from a longer term and I'll show you my trades in real time and give you runs and answer questions about setups.
i actually agree with granpa. the group i'm in trades many styles and tape reading is one of them. it's an entirely diff art now and most veterans who used to make a living doing it are unable to now. however, we do make money doing it. the naysayers are the ones who either have no experience or have failed in it with the current market conditions.
Bingo. If you want to discuss strats or whatever in a fully mutually beneficial way (i.e. I don't need to but I like to learn from others, I'm not like the desperate leeches that unfortuantely are 98% of ET) PM me.
Some of the "naysayers", as you call them, saw the signs and knew it was time to exit the industry and move on to better opportunities, while they still had the financial flexibility to do so. Many tried to hold on, in denial, just to find themselves searching for another job and exiting trading, because they were unwilling to accept the inevitable when the signs were in the air. And then a minority were able to adapt, but still, it's nothing like it used to be. Tapereading nowdays is as much of a strategy as reading charts is. There is no real edge.