The NYSE Bullish % Index, which to me, is the bellweather of all indices, and which is predicated on the Point & Figure charts of all NYSE stock components, is now at a 10-year high. See the following chart for details: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$BPNYA,P As of yesterday's close, we are still in an up-trend (column of "X"'s). However, anything over a value of 70 (and we closed at 83.96 yesterday) is an indication of a top formation. Given this mad increase to the upside, are we looking to fall off a cliff, sooner rather than later ?? I believe so.............
Very interesting! As a technician/sentiment guy I have noticed that often time when an indicator goes extreme...not overbought/sold. But totally insane levels that you can expect the opposite to happen. They may be ramping up for some serious follow thru. Nothing is ever guaranteed of course. Would it be too much to ask you to go out 10 years and over lay $SPX with that? Would love to see how they correlate.
I have tried to use stockcharts.com tools to do this, but unfortunately, I cannot get it to work (sorry !). However, I have been using P&F and NYSE Bullish % index to trade within my 401K for years. From manual inspection, I find that there is a very high correlation between the NYSE Bullish % index, and SPX. Again, through inspection over the years, it gets me in/out of the market within 8 % of market highs/lows consistently. It correctly got me out of market around DOW 13,000, before credit crisis flu hit (I forget what SPX was at, at the time). I got turned on to this index by Tom Dorsey's book, "Point and Figure Charting" (reference website - www.dorseywright.com). He devotes a chapter to this index, and without a doubt, it has been the single-most influential trading/investment book that I ever have read (specifically, the chapter that he devotes to this index). Dorsey has lots of empirical evidence, where he matches the index to market events, since back in the 1980's - e.g., it correctly "predicted" 1987 crash, a month prior. I think it costs around $ 60 on Amazon, and is worth checking out, IMO.