I have found something similar- on the first day, the sellings (varying degrees). The second day either people start buying back or there is a moderate selloff (for some reason the stocks I watch do not frequently have a large 2nd day selloff). The third and fourth days then depend on that important second day. If on that second day there is a massive selloff again, I would get the heck out of the position without question. If there is a moderate sellout that hasn't hit my stop loss, then I heavily consider what I am doing and re-evaluate. If starts to go up- either a little or a lot, then there is a greater chance of reaching my recovery point- validating my believe that the security was overly sold off. I read a study a few months ago by a thestreet.com editor of the longer term performance of heavily % losers in one day. The results were not very favorable in the long term, so I try to enter in and out of a trade (favorable one) in a few days. I don't expect the reward to be worthwhile holding on for weeks. nyc [[[[[[[[i too sometimes buy situations like hd. i find that whenever i violate the 3 day rule it gets painful at times because no one can know when the selling will end. hd was up 50% since march so it is possible it could go lower. the three day rule on a bad news dumpers goes as follows: day 1 the traders bail. day 2 the slow acting mutual funds bail. day 3 you can think about buying.}}}}}}}}}}}
Second day trading DOW 9797.50 NAZ 1760.54 S&P 1000.30 Yesterday's Holdings: HD Home Depot AVG Price of 32.56 29900 Shares valued at $961,584.00 Today's Trades: Buy HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD 6,200 @20.04 $124,252.00 Sell HD HOME DEPOT 9,900 @32.57 $322,404.68 Sell HPQ HEWLETT-PACKARD 3,300 @ 19.84 $65,468.90 Now holding: HD 20,000 HPQ 2,900 Total Value: $1,098,243.78 Cash: $389,423.78 Stock Value: $708,820.00 Change for day: +1.12% 10% Goal per month, by 9/15/03 1.2M, requires 9.26% return from here. Today's trades- HD came back, but not as much as I had planned for today. I ended up selling about a third of my holding in the company, keeping the cash. This is a precaution in case we see some downward movement tomorrow at the open. If we do, I will sell off my position. If it remains stable, I expect to see slight upward movement again. Will still look to sell this at 33, however, I will begin liquidating my position starting at 28.80. HPQ was the big mover today in the market- down over 10%. I bought in at 20.04 and am down for the day 1.1% After being down substantially due to earnings issues (price competition), Dell came out with news that they will be slashing prices up to 22%, further increasing HPQ earnings difficulty. This will most likely be a longer term issue for the company, nothing getting rid of the price war anytime soon. I will look to get rid of the stock at around 20.80 and have a stop loss at 19.40. nycdt
Just so you all know what I am paying per share, etc: -I am paying .05 a share with a maximum commission charge of 5% -Sales will be charged an SEC fee of the proceeds of the sale divided by 30,000 As you can see, the virtual fund that I am running on marketocracy is not very useful in day trading. My results would be higher if I were charged less in commission (and I assume some of my strategy would change as well). The fund incorporates the charge into the price of the purchase and sale, so I don't have much of an advange in rates. Do any of you know where I can trade that would provide cheaper rates (paper trade). Because of the .05/share each way, I don't even look at stocks under $10 because they don't really move enough to make the risk worthwhile. Unfortunate. I'm still looking to make a min of 5% compounded a month, with a goal of 10% a month. http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin...undPublicPage/source=LdOgBfHgDpApCgBkMaKiAbDe nycdt
Second day trading DOW 9,423.60 +26.10 NAZ 1,777.55 +17.01 S&P 1,003.27 +2.97 Yesterday's Holdings: HD 20,000 HPQ 2,900 Total Value: $1,098,243.78 Cash: $389,423.78 Stock Value: $708,820.00 Today's Trades: Type Symbol Quantity Net Commission SEC Fee Sell HD 5,000 $163,130.43 $250.00 $7.65 Sell HD 5,000 $163,660.12 $250.00 $7.68 Buy OSIS 7,000 $100,407.60 $350.00 $0.00 Sell HD 5,000 $163,639.70 $250.00 $7.68 Sell HD 2,000 $65,496.92 $100.00 $3.08 Buy GLYN 1,160 $13,961.86 $58.00 $ 0.00 Sell OSIS 7,000 $102,441.57 $350.00 $4.82 Buy AAII 9,200 $152,342.80 $460.00 $0.00 Sell HD 3,000 $97,753.81 $150.00 $4.59 Sell AAII 6,858 $116,641.58 $342.90 $5.48 Sell HPQ 2,900 $56,462.15 $145.00 $2.65 Sell AAII 480 $8,135.61 $24.00 $0.39 Sell AAII 1,862 $31,528.84 $93.10 $1.48 Buy NTES 4,100 $202,070.41 $205.00 $0.00 Buy CEPH 7,000 $301,326.90 $350.00 $0.00 Sell GLYN 1,160 $13,815.52 $58.00 $0.65 Sell NTES 4,100 $200,360.05 $205.00 $9.39 Sell CEPH 7,000 $303,815.48 $350.00 $14.24 Buy NTES 340 $16,741.72 $17.00 $0.00 Buy NTES 12,300 $607,918.87 $615.00 $0.00 Sell NTES 1,710 $84,583.57 $85.50 $3.97 Sell NTES 10,930 $541,351.77 $546.50 $25.37 Buy JNJ 10,100 $498,614.00 $505.00 $0.00 Now holding: JNJ 10,100 shares Value: $1,107,737.25 Cash: $608,797.25 Stock Value: $498,940.00 Change for day: +.87% = +$9,500 10% Goal per month, by 9/15/03 1.2M, requires 8.3% return from here. Today's trades- As I mentioned in my posts yesterday, today was a key trading day for my heavy HD holding. I did not see the stock take off as much as I needed to in order to hold it for another day. I started selling off my holding in blocks, starting from 32.63 and all the way up to 32.75 (and some in between). Gained a few grand off of this investment. Made some shorter than normal trades in some stocks that got kicked down today: AAII, NTES (with caution!), OSIS, CEPH Rode some up and then sold a few times. Worked out well today, but I still don't believe in this kind of trading. The reason for my short term trading based on fluctuating prices is my belief that we are going to see a correction soon, and I don't want to hold anything for more than a few days. nycdt
In reality... you probably will learn very little from this entire experience. The second you start using real $.. the whole thing changes. If you dont believe me .. you will. --MIKE
Man you're gonna get a rude awakening when you start trading for real This is like playing Nascar on the PS2 Let's see how you feel driving around the track at 200MPH in real life
Yeah, I am doing some risky volatility stuff. In real life I know I wouldn't be trying to play around with this kind of movement, however, I would consider entering in on a beaten (intra-day) stock. Real life I would enter into a week long trade at shortest. I guess regardless of whether I think the market is going to tank, I should just focus on my longer term trading. Comments?
I think you should make your paper-trading more real Like trade with money you think you'll have when you start for real Come on, 1 million dollars?? How bout start with 50K/100K??