I will start my journal tonight, and post my trading from tomorrow- Aug 19. DOW 9412.40 NAZ 1739.49 S&P 999.74 Since inception (about a month ago), my virtual fund is up a little over 10%. I am looking to do a better job of managing my downside fluctuations (without the ability of using derivatives). You can see my fund performance chart at: http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin...undPublicPage/source=LdOgBfHgDpApCgBkMaKiAbDe In the near future I am going to concentrate more on shorter term investing, as opposed to longer trading in the 3-5 day range. With the VIX hitting a sub 20 level and there no apparant reason for the large increase in the indexes (economy isn't growing at a fast enough pace to justify this flight). Added to that, there is some growing shorting of the S&P futures by professional money managers. S&P is at near 52 week high, and an "important" 1000 level, which I also believe will not be sustained. I think we'll see sub 950 soon enough if significant bullish economic data isn't released. Because of the belief that the market is in jeopardy of shooting down, I am employing a more short term focus on my trades. Where I typically enter into 3-5 day trades, I may focus on intra or up to 3 day-long trades. Because of the shorter time frame, I am focused on finding high volatility stocks, particularly those that released important (or horrible) news for the day, that make them move. I am not currently shorting, due to restrictions on my trading abilities in my virtual fund. If I were allowed, I most likely would short (no futures or options trading allowed, either). AOL IM: bcldemon nycderivtrader
Would like to hear about what other people think about near term and what strategies they are using. Comments?
I follow the tape. No moving average, stochastic, 52 week high, inside day, or anything else matters when you follow the tape. The tape is the only truth... therefore following makes sense.
And what is your strategy in following the tape. If anyone else does this, please let me know what you do.
I figure out whether the stock is being accumulated or distributed... mostly find stocks that aren't moving anywhere for a few hours, just trading in a range.... I then buy them or sell them. Made the mistake on CAT today. Thought it was being distributed. It's possible to read, but sometimes i'm wrong. I'm not a veteran, just a newbie.
DOW 9428.90 NAZ 1761.11 S&P 1002.35 Entered into HD (Home Depot): 7,600 $32.64 6,100 $32.60 10,000 $32.58 2,800 $32.59 300 $32.31 3,100 $32.25 AVG Price of 32.56 29900 Shares valued at $961,584.00 Home Depot released better than expected earnings, however, these numbers were not as good as the unexpected by Lowes. I believe that HD will come back after this selloff due to the growing stability of the company through its "remodeling" of its stores. I have entered into this trade believing that the selloff is short lived due to stable growth and a sound (& successful) business plan. HD at 32.16, I will look to get out at 33.00 and have a stop loss at 31.50.
at this rate you will have 2 mil in hd by the time it hits 31.50. in your first post you said there is no reason for the market to go up. in the last post you said there is no reason for hd to keep going down. seems like you are trying to out guess the market.
are you a trader or an investor? to me it sounds like you are an investor. earnings reports and 'believing that the selloff is short lived due to stable growth and a sound (& successful) business plan' sounds like it to me. is there a method to this madness?
In reply: at this rate you will have 2 mil in hd by the time it hits 31.50. in your first post you said there is no reason for the market to go up. in the last post you said there is no reason for hd to keep going down. seems like you are trying to out guess the market. At 31.50, (29,900 shares) I will have $941,850, not 2M I still believe that the market is going to come down, a correction. I would still like to see sub 9k values- ideally 8750. With that said, I feel that there are short term opportunities for acting on the over-reaction to news. Although there is market risk involved in individual holdings, I feel that there is still an opportunity to make money. The reason that I entered into HD is because I had a gut feeling that there would be a recovery (perhaps not to the level that it was trading at close yesterday). I felt that the risk in taking the move was worthwhile. HD was down 5.13% today and I managed to get in, expecting a return in the next 2-3 days. I am down now for the day in this investment 1.24%, which is A LOT for me for intra day. I am still forming an investment strategy to fit what I am trying to do (I do not consider myself a trader/scalper). With that said, in my past I generally do not commit myself as largely as I have with HD, I usually spread myself out more to reduce risk. I am trying to achieve 5-10% a month, compounded. Love to hear comments and suggestions.
i too sometimes buy situations like hd. i find that whenever i violate the 3 day rule it gets painful at times because no one can know when the selling will end. hd was up 50% since march so it is possible it could go lower. the three day rule on a bad news dumpers goes as follows: day 1 the traders bail. day 2 the slow acting mutual funds bail. day 3 you can think about buying.