NWL - Call Accumulator

NWL is trading 17.11 up 2.7% with IV30&#8482 up 11.9%.

<img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TAUniywvArI/AAAAAAAACq4/XAEQqqEv3oE/s1600/nwl_summary.gif">

NWL recently confirmed earnings guidance.

The company has traded over 12,000 options in the first two hours on total daily average option volume of just 2,001. All but 1,206 contracts have been calls yielding a 9:1 call : put ratio. The largest trades are in the front two month 17.5 and 20 calls as well as the second month 20 calls. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/06/nwl.html">in the article</a>).

The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/06/nwl.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the Jul 20 calls are opening (volume >> Open Interest). The Jun 17.5 calls are purchases today on long OI (so they are increasing the open interest). The Jun 20 calls are purchases today on long OI as well. The Jun 17.5 and 20 calls became active on 5-3-2010 (i.e. a month ago) and are continuing to accumulate long positions.

The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/06/nwl.html">in the article</a>) illustrates how the Jun and Jul 20 level call volatility is increasing. The skew is bending up with the order flow. I've highlighted the 20 strike for those two months. Note that the back three months still slope downward.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/06/nwl.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30&#8482 - red vs HV20&#8482 - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30&#8482 vs. the HV20&#8482 vol difference.

You can see from the shaded region at the bottom that the IV30&#8482 generally trades above the actual vol (HV20&#8482). Right now the two are almost in synch as the stock has risen recently. Around the end of Feb on the chart you can see where the IV and HV converged. A sort of "quiet" period ensued, then the stock moved up as IV&#8482 rose. For the convergence most recently (early May(ish)), the stock dropped first then rose.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here:
http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/06/nwl.html

 

Somebody is doing the "Plastic Spread", NWL versus PTV.

 

It's malleable...

 

I just lost a "small" bet with sombody in the office. You're fast.

 

What was the bet?

 

You replied "too quickly"......?..... ! .....for the second time!

 

that's cool. I like "prop" bets. We do it all the time on the floor.

 

?..... !.....Jesus H. Christ! Darn! It happened again. You quoted me before I edited. The Summer Doldrums are here.

 

Bloomberg reports Proctor & Gamble considering takeover bid.