Discussion in 'Trading' started by Kevmeister, Jul 2, 2002.
Can someone please explain why NVDA, with a pe of 10, is not a screaming short term buy?
i.m looking at it also))))))) or maybe play options on it.
it maybe good buy when selling is over, if you want to take a positions in this area. for now, as i can see-valuations doesn't matter))))
CHKP- good valuations and buy in software (from my point of view))))
some of there very own crooked officers have been busted for insider trading, The irony is they were buyers
Nobody wants to catch a falling knife.
Wait for a good rally and buy the pullback.
Notice how Nasdaq went up June 27/28 and
NVDA did not put up much of a rally. Sellers
are still in control.
Also, there is something wrong with the company
that cannot be seen. There has to be something
big for this kind of selling.
Maybe our good friend TraderRX could give us some
pointers if he is still with us.
Didn't they just warn on earnings? Also, they took out their september low, not a good sign. When CSCO was at 60 I thought man if it ever gets to $20 Im going load up.
There is a fear that Intel's next chip with integrated graphics will obviate the need for many PC buyers for a separate graphics controller card. If this pans out, then it could severly reduce Nvidia's desktop business, its core business.
The PC market is in the doldrums as well.
And the Xbox is not selling as well as expected.
Plus there was the earnings restatement(which did not amount to much)
This is why, I think, the stock has been getting the complete shit kicked out of it.
The way this turkey is going down it looks like a screaming short!
NVDA is the first company I've managed to overweight my IRA on. Right now I'm hurting as I've been scaling in since about $25-$30.
This stock is consistently growing earnings year after year at rates exceeding 50% in some quarters. While I don't expect this to continue at this rate, I do expect plenty of growth in their high-margin, high dollar chipsets once the "must-have" action games like Unreal Tournament 2003, Unreal 2, and Doom 3 come out. Plus, there's plenty of growth left in the laptop arena for high performance chips.
People say there's too much competition - especially rumors of competition from Intel. I say, what competition? From Intel? Don't make me laugh. They've been trying for years, remember the i850 chip? The only real competition is from ATI and as far as I'm concerned, ATI is to NVDA what AMD is to Intel. ATI provides just enough competition to keep NVDA on its toes but NVDA is the established brand leader, not only with the gamers and computer geeks, but the OEM sellers and the branded companies. That means the Dells, Gateways, Compaqs, Acers, eMachines, HP's and even Apples use NVDA. The only area NVDA doesn't dominate is the no margin, no profit bottom-dollar cheapo chips they put in those $499 computers. Plenty of competition there and they can have it. As soon as the poor ignorant computer user pops in his or her first 3D game and finds his 2gig running like a 286, guess where he or she has to go to upgrade the video card?
The so-called accounting issues? What a joke. You know what that entailed? Restating their earnings so 2002 revenues were "only" $1.369 billion instead of $1.371 billion and net income was "only" $176.9 million instead of $177.1 million. Over the past 3 years it meant a change of $.01 or $.02 in net income per share.
The Xbox scare? Do you know what they're arguing over? $13.2 million dollars. That's it! $13 million for NVDA, a company that made $500M last *quarter*. Bill Gates drops more than this on his stylin' haircut. I laugh and find it typical of Microsoft to argue over pocket change. I fully expect NVDA to win, you don't make an agreement and decide to change the rules just because units aren't selling as much as you hoped. Even if NVDA loses, so what? It's $13.2 million. NVDA already has the money set aside in case they do lose.
The only area I wish they'd focus on is to brand their name more prominently in the consumer's mind so they know to look for the NVDA label the way Intel successfully managed to make themselves a household name. Granted this could get expensive. Intel did it successfully, other companies like AMAT tried and failed so I'm not saying it'll be easy.
But I look at this company dropping and just stare in wonder. A company that was growing earnings at a 50% rate that will probably continue, imo, to grow at least 20% for the next two years is trading now with a P/E of 12?
Keep in mind I'm stumping for this stock from an investment standpoint *and* from a trading standpoint. NVDA recently broke through its only major support at $25, which I didn't think it'd do and immediately dropped to where it's sitting now - at 2/00 and 12/00 major support levels of $15. Of course, back then when it was trading at that price, it's p/e's were 50-100.
If there's something out there, anything, that I'm not seeing - somebody please tell me. I believe this stock is so low it's ridiculous. So low in fact I really am starting to worry if there's something else going on that only the insiders and analysts of the big firms know. Meanwhile, I've dumped more money into this company than I probably should have. If it works, I'll make lot of cash. If it doesn't work, well you can all point and laugh.
you sound like the typical poster on the yahoo message boards. you bought a stock, it went down, you held on, and now you're listing all the reasons why it shouldn't be going down. in the meantime, you're losing money. you may be right, you may be wrong, but all that matters is price itself.
a few years ago when stocks were way overpriced, they still went up. now, stocks may become underpriced and still go down. i'm sure you already know this, but since you do, why are you still holding on to a stock that has gone so far against you?
"The only real competition is from ATI"
This isn't very realistic. The threat from the integrated chipsets offered by Intel probably isn't that large but the investment community seems to be taking it very seriously. Isn't that enough? This isn't a debate about the merits of chip set or a videocard but rather about the prospects for the stock. While NVDA's offerings may be superior now, many expect ATI to seriously challenge them with their next release and new releases from Matrox and Creative (3DLabs) are also expected to siphon off some customers. Even if NVDA continues to dominate their growth will still be adversely affected by these developments. The bad news from AMD won't be encouraging for those counting on nForce chip set sales and the weakness in the PC sector overall isn't exactly a secret. So there a lot of fundamental reasons why NVDA stock is going down. You can discount any or all of them if you want to but I don't think that you'll convince many on this board without some technical reasons for the stock to go up.
Separate names with a comma.