NVDA anyone ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by StasDesy, Apr 30, 2004.

  1. StasDesy


    Hi all,
    I'm about to buy some NVidia shares.

    According to the technical tests their new GPU is faster and better than the competition (ATI).

    would appreciate any comments.
  2. So what if it's faster?

    There are only so many geeks buying the high end product. lol


    Intel will dominate the GPU market, if you look at the trend of chipsets versus discrete ... it's no comparison.

    People want value and price.
  3. StasDesy


    hmm, Intel is far from dominating the GPU market. It may have like 80% of CPU market though.

    Intel has planty of good things comming and at the price of around 25$ I'm thinking Intel too.
  4. BSAM


    Chart is not saying "buy me", IMO.
  5. BSAM


    I take it you don't use charts to make buy / sell decisions?

  6. Intel has 60%+ of the GPU chipset market. NVDA has about a 50%+ in the GPU discrete market.

    Chipset is expected to cannibalize Discrete. I think you can come up with your own conclusion. :)

    Nvda also losing xbox revenue. Xbox2 goes to ATYT. Food for thought
  7. I'll argue a case for nVidia. First off Intels GPU is terrible, and they did this once before if you remember http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19990823S0003 and everyone thought then they would rule graphics integration, WRONG. nVidia has a HUGE partner with AMD. Why little AMD? Opteron and the engineers that built Opteron (from Alpha) have sooo many things yet to come, and nVidia has the best chipset solution http://www.anandtech.com/mb/showdoc.html?i=2036 and on top of that their latest cards will perform better with their chipsets http://www.techreport.com/reviews/2004q2/nforce3-geforcefx/index.x?pg=1 and add the yet to come AMD dual core Opteron that will fit existing motherboards http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=15605 like the Nforce250 which has a dual Opteron version coming. And it has been my contention for the last 3 years that nVidia will merge with AMD, who in turn will be bought by IBM to go head on against Microsoft/Intel.

    And one more thing, nVidia lost money with Xbox b/c of the way the contract was structured. All nVidia really wanted was R&D money to make Nforce a reality. Intel lost money as well on Xbox, so now it's IBM's and ATI turn for Microsft to bitchslap them.Also don't rule out Microsoft "maybe" buying AMD or nVidia. They at one time wanted to have direct control (look at Xbox 2 software architecture) over everything which included hardware. This fantasy was thought about while building Longhorn with Opterons and nVidia graphics cards, seeing how well both perform with DirectX.
  8. Intel's new GPU (integrated with its chipset) slated to come out soon has vastly improved from what I understand. A friend of a friend...Their GPU might be terrible, but they're still the leader in BOTH PC and notebook chipset market by a hefty margin (Mercury Research). So does it matter?

    I agreed with you that NVDA has some nice "toyz." But the big issue is whether that will translate into revenue and EPS. ATI has a pretty damn good chipset, but has only gain 1% market share since its last fiscal year. AND ATI has a p4 License!!!

    AMD/NVDA's "joint venture" accounts for less than 10%, probably less than 5%, of total revenue.

    As a side note:
    NVDA is losing money. Enormous amount of stock options (expense). Previous accounting issues (new auditor announced last week) .. etc. etc. This begs the question: even if they're going to be recrown again, which I doubt, how much will they make? Assign a P/E ratio of 25X, and the stock is still overvalued.

    If you read any street reports, the big issue/trend is diversification. ATI has the major share in notebook discrete GPU; ATI has the major share in set-topbox;ATI is rumored to have won the Samsung 3G design win. Intel has... well .... they have alot going for them. All NVDA has its its core GPU discrete. It's feeble attempt at diversifying has been terrible. Look at its notebook sales: abysmal. Only workstations powered by 64bit Opteron has done well. but how long will that last? Intel 32/64 is coming out. Only good news for NVDA is its design win with Motorola.

    In sum:
    Great product. But not great economics.

    P.S. Did NVDA losing money on the Xbox deal? I know it was low margin, but it was contributing to the bottomline. And the lawsuit also allowed them to recover all the deferred revenue, which drops to the bottom line. I could be wrong of course ...

    NV40 is terrific with respect to Direct9. But I wait until ATI comes out with its next line of product. Should be interesting for game fanatic :)
  9. Osman


    Its hard to see NVDA be a buy for swing traders unless it gets down to 15.50. regardless of news or products. Granted thats 5 points from now, my interpretation of the charts show no real or definite signs that NVDA is worth a buy.

    I'm not a forecaster or wizard, just a trader going by the charts. Trying to find the best odds to put in my favor.
    I could be totally off and miss a great buy, but this is my interpretation of NVDA daily and weekly charts. If i'm going to long a stock, i would look somewhere else until NVDA shows me different.

    This is my thinking:

    NDVA broke through the 20.70 support today.

    Next couple of days, it'll oscillate from 19.50 to 21.90.

    Then it will fill in the gap from 19.53-18.52, quickly.

    Once we get below 18.50, will the accumulation (not instant upswing) by smart money begin.

    By 15.50 it should definitely turn around, if it even comes to that extreme.
  10. bump
    #10     May 1, 2004