Discussion in 'Stocks' started by michaelscott, Apr 9, 2007.

  1. Whats going on with NUVO? I do not trade bio stocks out of fear and especially this one. This one was a 20 dollar stock back in the fall and then something happened to get it cut to 4 in a day.

    It looks like its still going on in afterhours. Can we expect more share appreciation after today?

    After Hours: $6.45Change: +0.77 +13.56%Volume: 1,513,487
  2. hels02


    Remember how NUVO got 'fast tracked' for rNAPc2 by the FDA about a month ago? Well, it's the 2nd quarter that the approval is expected (rNAPc2 is a colo-rectal cancer treatment).

    It's now the 2nd quarter, so something big is going to happen soon one way or another with the FDA. If it gets approved... we'll see $20 pretty fast. If it doesn't... how far can it fall? Some writers canned it about a week ago... IMO because they didn't own any yet. Bet they all do now.

    Another one I just caught this morning was TGEN. I had some, but added before the bell... that was an easy 25% gain. TGEN was partially financed by Bill Gates with his personal money back in the 90's as one of the best bets for curing AIDS. This year for the first time it's actually profitable. This is remarkable given it's research biotech status. It's been a long long road for this little company.

    I went heavily into biotech starting a few weeks ago, the entire medical/biotech sector has been down for almost a year, so they were overdue (I posted this around 2 weeks back). My little basket has done really well.

    NBIX, TGEN, NUVO and I added DNDN about a week ago. Nice little $5.50 pop on DNDN today too. This sector is not the best for long term play, but it's fast and easy money when the timing's right.
  3. I know nothing about the biotech sector and, frankly, these big falls from grace scare me. When is the right time to enter and exit? If I dont know anything about these stocks, should I even bother?
  4. buy at the money options.

    they are lottery tickets, so keep your risk exposure down.
  5. hels02


    Biotech is HIGH RISK. It's like GROW in the sense that it can do wild swings in short timeframes.

    You can win big you can lose big.

    However, one advantage is that the sector has been relatively beaten down. If you take the gamble when the prices are low, it does not have far to fall if it falls, but there's a whole lot of upspace.

    Biotech is one area of the market that you are paying for the promise, not the bottom line, so it's not the sector for the inexperienced... you have to at least have some idea of what is promising vs what is bs. That's why news of FDA anything makes one of these stocks go to the moon.

    With Biotech you generally don't want to hold for the long term... look up some of the historical charts for any of them... they go UP UP UP then they go DOWN DOWN DOWN based on any rumor.

    So how do you find out which are worth buying? Since the moves when they happen happen lightning fast?

    You try to read up on the most promising, or choose the ones that will likely not be able to fall farther... but STILL HAS SOMETHING in the pipes that is real. Then you get in before it's due to announce based on prior announcements. Ie., 'blah blah will submit to the FDA in 2 months', so you put it on your calendar to buy in 6-7 weeks.

    Nothing is free, you have to do a lot of research, but if you do the research and find the hidden nuggets, the payoffs can be enormous. Biotech news is conveniently all out there... science journals, publications, etc. It may not show up on STOCK news, but what is coming down the pipeline is definitely public info you can extrapolate.

    Because it's such a downtrodden sector, it's a nice one right now, as you can see by the ones I have.
  6. hels02


    That's a good idea too.

    Only thing about options is, some are pricey and sometimes you cannot be sure of the timeframe and miss. But the longer out you buy calls, the more it costs in premium.

    If you are doing a whole basket of promising candidates, it is cheaper to go long.
  7. exactly. if you are buying and holding for more than 1-2 months (or really a few weeks), then options become a more difficult sell, especially considering how inflated IVs exaggerate theta decay.
  8. Dearest Michael-

    You are now talking to a biotech expert ask away!

    Oh I'll just answer> NUVO I have owned it in the past do not now... HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS of current move here's why. Back when I played this name it was all about Alfimeprase I was lucky to enjoy a run up and get out before a big crash when their lead drug FAILED.

    Stk crashed to $3.75. The good news? This is now great support. Suddenly they are back with a new pipeline product that is undefined and being aimed at several cancers -- too broad-- R-Spondin1 or NU206 might work it might not. Stk is racing up on a presentation they have soon between April 14 & April 18 If you like this stock buy it after the conference it will be a lot cheaper.

    Now the Bio to BUY NOW is ACOR> Just do it don't ask.
  9. hels02


    Hello Stoney.

    I was actually planning to be out before the conference.

    And out of DNDN before the May 15 review.

    Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the news?

    Why would you want any after the conference?
  10. hels02


    Question about ACOR... why ACOR instead of ELN?

    ACOR is already at nosebleed levels. There's no 'new' news coming down the pipe for some time from what I can see... meaning sideways or even drift down.

    Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but the last 'news' on their next big thing, Fampridine-SR, was a positive Phase 3 study released 9/25/07... no news on any FDA applications that I could find anywhere.

    ACOR one and only current success was bought from ELAN (Zanaflex) whole, including the actual product inventory for sale. While there is promise in their pipeline, there is no biotech company that's been around for more than a few years that doesn't have SOMETHING promising in their pipeline. That means nothing til it's close to approval.

    How is ACOR preferable to NUVO, who has gone from $3.75 to $5.90 in 2 days? In the same span of 2 days, ACOR has been flat to down... because it already did it's spike and now is spiraling back down on no news.

    NUVO has an FDA review coming up within the next 2 months for an already FDA fast tracked drug, and has a conference coming up within a week?

    Could you enlighten me? I'm not a biotech expert.
    #10     Apr 10, 2007