USDCHF gave a buy signal based on the strength of the intraday trend four hours ago. The four-hour price flow is now bullish, so I'm curious to see if the pair still has it within itself to climb another four hours and possibly give me a ten-pip profit. (It's currently at 0.8945.) Overall however, the day-to-day trend is bearish, making this pair (under current conditions) a potential SELL candidate should it happen to climb up anywhere in the 0.8976 to 0.9037 neighborhood.
USDCHF came just one pip short of giving me my ten-pip profit. Had I not been in bed, I would have pocketed my gains when the rate reversed course at that level, which is why I look forward to finalizing my office situation tomorrow...a place where I can stay up all night to monitor my positions whenever I still have one or more still open. But instead, I ended up getting stopped out for a loss.
Monday | October 24, 2023 The observations I made during my first day of "full-time" trading, starting during the London and finishing during the New York session, prompted me to code an alert based on the hourly trend, with buy signals being triggered when the tail of a candlestick drops below the lower band of the indicator picture in the image below, and sell signals sounding when the wick of a candlestick climbs above the upper band of the channel... I'll have to wait until Wednesday to see how it performs in real time, seeing as how I plan on spending tonight and tomorrow morning making sure I don't deprive myself of too much sleep.
Evaluate the following strategy as compared with the one pictured in Post #23... If the lower panel oscillator on your 15-minute chart that looks for agreement between the slopes of the six- and 12-minute baselines maintains a positional relationship with the upper threshold level such that it is even with or above the measure, enter and remain in a long position. If it sustains a positional relationship that is flush with or below the lower threshold level, enter and remain in a short position. If it is rejected at either line or immediately returns to the interior of the central channel after momentarily crossing over to the exterior region, look for a reversal in the intraday trend.
Since this strategy uses a 15-minute chart, it offers a more detailed picture of what's going on than does the one from Post #23. Transposing the graphics from the hourly chart to the lower time frame led me to add the 90-minute and three-hour baselines to the six- and 12-hour measures; with the three-hour measure representing the typical pullback level. The role played by the lower panel in Post #24 can be mirrored in the main chart by observing what the candlesticks do as soon as they cross above or below the 50-minute baseline, not to mention what the indicator you refer to as "averaged" does. Use what you call the "interval measures" in both time frames to calculate the projected maximum and "minimum" lengths for the candlestick wicks and tails. On the one-hour chart, under extreme conditions, this calculation is taken over by the outer "averaged" measure and/or the three-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation. So in general, the 90-minute measure conveys the ultimate destination of the intraday trend, with the 50-minute baseline, and the positional relationship between it and the most recent candlesticks (on a 15-minute chart), tracking the immediate, fluctuating, shorter-term trends. However, the 50-minute measure is too unstable to be trusted, and should therefore be confirmed by the three-hour moving average. But even this measure can, from time to time, be guilty of executing a head fake, and should therefore be confirmed, in turn, by the 6-hour baseline which, though evidencing a significant amount of lag, can nonetheless guard against making a costly mistake once the trend gets going. The 12-hour baseline is more indicative of the ultimate direction in which price is headed from one day to the next, since the amount of lag it evidences is so severe as to make if of only limited value when it comes to making intraday decisions.
Well... if I drill down to even lower time frames, I find there are additional potential entry points along with the statistical level (i.e., the three-hour baseline). Also, in this context I'm no longer looking to the positional relationship of price with respect to the 90-minute baseline to track shorter-term trends, but am relying instead on the trajectories of the five- and ten-minute moving averages, with the general overall drift of price shadowed by the proprietary red and blue price flow channel.
Thursday | October 26, 2023 | 8:45 AM PDT I'm opting not to record what might be my last observations regarding Numerical Price Prediction here in that they might prove to be too definitive of what could very well make NPP so lucrative (IF this indeed turns out to be the case) for me to take the chance that one or more others may possess the analytic insight to take that information and replicate what I'm doing.