Monday, July 29, 2019 / 8:36 a.m. PST My first test of the above suspicion will be CADJPY. Since the numbers suggests that 82.71 is offering at least temporary resistance to this very bullish pair, I'm going to try to grab a quick 5-pips worth of profit by shorting the asset at about 82.68. This is a very aggressive move because I'm making it without any other type of confirmation, so I have no idea what the result will be. I'll be crossing my fingers and hoping for a positive outcome. (The purpose of this trade is to help validate or invalidate some basic suppositions underlying this strategy.) UPDATE: Regardless of the outcome, I think the above move was folly. Rather than execute trades based on channels alone, no doubt they still need to be confirmed by one or more appropriate moving averages. There is a very real chance I will be stopped out of this position and suffer a loss. MOST RECENT UPDATE: I could not justify staying with the trade since it did not continue to fall immediately. I therefore exited the position manually and did not wait for it to hit my stop loss. Based on structure, I cannot justify going long either, so I will simply wait to short the pair again when the move is confirmed by a corresponding moving average.
Enough of all this. It's time to go do some other stuff. What it comes down to is I now have a little bit of extra to add to what I was already doing, which everything I observed today and yesterday simply confirms. So once again, no more posts to add to this tread…at least not for a while. I exited AUDJPY early before I gave back too many pips and because I wanted to get on with my day. I don't know how far CADJPY was going to drop (ultimately) but at least this confirmed the wisdom in waiting for moving averages to confirm setups suggested by the channels. I've gotten all I needed to know out of this little endeavor.
Thursday, October 3, 2019 At this point, just glancing at my what now truly do appear to be my final chart configurations is all I need do to evaluate what's going on with a given currency pair, so that writing out any more "formal" analyses would simply be a waste of time. So as I did yesterday with respect to one of my other threads, I'm going to paste my final protocol here to make it easier to find should I ever have need to do so, now that I've thought out what all it entails about as fully as I can... As currently implemented, my approach is an offshoot of Numerical Price Prediction which I am calling: Dynamic Price Range Forex Trading Strategy. It is based on the biblical principles of testing everything and holding fast to that which is good and knowing how to judge the signs of the times. Much of this involved looking at historical data to analyze which moving averages in a given time frame foreshadowed rising prices virtually every time they evidenced an upward trajectory, or were followed by falling prices just about every time they evidenced a downward slope—where the association between the two phenomena produced a statistically significant positive correlation (as close to 100% as possible) and then apply those same measures in the present to achieve successful outcomes. As a result of this process, each currency pair was assigned an “orbit,” with the thought that just as the numerous systems, patterns, currents, rotations, and forces observed on our planet are all subject to the same overall trajectory as the earth revolves around the sun—currency pairs too gravitate toward an ultimate destination via a specific circuit revealed by their orbits. However, such “revolutions” do not fit standard moving averages and must therefore be represented by uniquely, painstakingly selected ones. Due to their very nature, a trader should (hypothetically) always win in the end so long as he or she plots a course in the direction of a given asset’s orbit. Near the end of its development, the main idea was to use technical analysis to make market forecasts in roughly the same manner meteorologists use computer models to predict the weather. This amounted to noting precise, up-to-date, quantitative information about market conditions, and interpreting the data to make accurate projections, except instead of relying on factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, cloud formation, and wind direction/velocity; my measurements are gathered on trend lines, market structure, average price ranges, historical support/resistance levels, and repetitive price patterns to simulate the equations, the wave functions and representations, and the grid point, spectral and/or coordinate models used in weather forecasting. However, as with numerical weather prediction, there are intrinsic predictability limitations leading to error growth with time, so I use this approach almost exclusively for pseudo-swing and intraday trading, evaluating how all the above factors interact and relate to one another to determine where exchange rates are most likely headed in the not-too-distant future. Another unique aspect of this methodology is how it portrays price behavior. Rather than conceptualize price action as a series of financial transactions roughly tracking the path of one or more trend lines, the system views price movement as cutting a swath of values to form a tsunami or tidal wave constituting a band of a given amplitude that flows with a directional tendency. The idea is to milk the absolute maximum amount of profit out of the market by entering and exiting positions at the peaks and troughs occurring near the two extremes of the tsunami’s amplitude. These levels are conceptualized as launch pads and landing sites (also as riverbanks and shorelines) and are calculated using a combination of moving averages, price range envelopes, and Donchian channels. The rules for the Dynamic Price Range Forex Trading Strategy are as follows: To maximize the percentage of winning trades, do not enter a position unless the trade is aligned with the orbit of the corresponding asset. This is identical to the slope of the instrument’s gravitational trendline. Moreover, positions should not be entered unless price is crossing over the intraday trigger line after having made contact with a launchpad or shoreline. Stop losses and Take-profit targets are calculated using the adaptive price range envelopes. However, positions should not be exited automatically. To let profits run, traders should remain in a given position until touch down is achieved at the designated landing site, AND price begins to reverse back over the intraday trigger line in the OPPOSITE direction. And finally, "the trend is your friend" might be a fair maxim, but the Numerical Price Prediction forecast models suggests that this all depends on context. Accordingly, there are a number of other factors the system requires traders to consider before executing any trade, as listed below: Where is the exchange rate located or positioned within the global and universal price ranges? Is the rate oscillating inside the local price range, or is it trending to the outside of this region? Is price action taking place above or below the gravity line? What is the slope of the gravity line? Is price action taking place above or below the anchor line? What is the slope of the anchor line? Have the riverbanks/shorelines flattened out, or are they sloping? Is the exchange rate crossing the trigger line after having made contact with a launchpad or landing site? What is the ordinal configuration of the actionable trend lines, and are they fanning?
Easter Sunday / April 12, 2020 / 7:00 PM PST It is probably beyond your ability to make this system any better, and the best way for you to go about trading it now is, in all probability, to micromanage your positions. But since you are unable to do so at this time, and given that responding to a comment by Sigma about Bollinger bands led you to revisit a lower time frame price range envelope extrapolated from a higher time frame chart that has impressed you anew with its accuracy, go ahead and write a protocol based on what you saw afresh for executing trades in accordance with position and structure, and then evaluate the profitability of entering positions using this protocol (assuming it is profitable at all) in place of micromanaging positions. The Primary Trade Zones are deep pink and yellow green. The Secondary Trade Zones are lavender and sky blue. The Immediate Price Range Envelope consists of orange bands. The Local Price Range Envelope is defined by the Secondary Trade Zones. The Intermediate Price Range Envelope consist of the tan-colored bands, and the Global Price Range Envelopes are defined by the Primary Trade Zones. Buy as candlesticks are exiting both the green AND blue Primary and Secondary Trade Zones, especially if you notice a flattening (or reversal) of the lower band(s) of the Immediate and/or Intermediate Price Range Envelopes. Sell as candlesticks are exiting both the deep pink AND lavender Primary and Secondary Trade Zones, especially if you notice a flattening (or reversal) of the upper band(s) of the Immediate and/or Intermediate Price Range Envelopes. NOTE: If at all possible, enter on the “touch-and-go” as price bounces off the top or bottom of the Secondary Price Range Envelope and/or the Immediate Price Range Envelope after retesting the local maximum (high) or local minimum (low), as appropriate (in effect, forming a double top or double bottom). Set your stop loss just above the top or just below the bottom of the flattened (or maxed out) Immediate (orange) Price Range Envelope, as appropriate, (but use the local maximum [high] or local minimum [low] if this is more extreme). Set your take-profit target at the opposite side/bands of the Intermediate (lavender and sky blue) Price Range Envelope. (This is essentially a return to your "riverbanks" and "seashores" style of trading with an emphasis on using the two cycles concurrently.)
Friday / May 1, 2020 Personal Forecast for Next Sunday/Monday AUDJPY, AUDUSD, CADJPY, NZDJPY, NZDUSD and USDCHF turned bearish today, so look to sell the rallies. EURGBP, EURAUD, EURJPY, and USDCAD turned bullish today, so look to buy the dips. EURUSD is also bullish, so look to buy the dips.
Monday / May 04, 2020 / 9:30 AM PST AUDJPY looks to be in the middle of a pullback from its overall southbound trek. The same is true of AUDUSD and CADJPY. EURAUD looks like it could be attempting more than a mere pullback from its recent ascent and possibly initiating a full-fledged resumption of the descent it began on April 22, 2020. Additional observation is advisable. EURGBP is in consolidation at the moment. EURJPY turned bearish with the start of trading this week and so did EURUSD. GBPJPY and GBPUSD are both still bearish, but the former looks like it might be heading into consolidation. NZDJPY and NZDUSD look to have ended their momentary pullbacks to resume southbound trajectories. USDCHF has turned bullish with the start of this week’s action. At the moment, USDCAD appears to be in the middle of a pullback from its overall northbound trek. USDJPY seems to be having difficulty making up its mind as to which direction it wants to go.
Tuesday / May 05, 2020 / 1:30 AM GMT AUDJPY was not merely pulling back from its overall southbound trek, it was initiating a full-fledged reversal north, and the same was true of AUDUSD. CADJPY is currently neutral. EURAUD did indeed initiate a full-fledged resumption of the descent it began on April 22, 2020. EURGBP has also initiated a reversal south. EURJPY is still bearish, and so is EURUSD. GBPJPY did indeed head into consolidation and is presently neutral. GBPUSD is still evidencing a bearish day-to-day trend, but the intraday trend is in an upward trajectory. If the intraday trend reverses south, it will be a sell signal. Of course, if it continues north to the point that it pulls the day-to-day trend upward as well, the opposite will be true. NZDJPY and NZDUSD looked to have ended their momentary pullbacks to resume southbound trajectories, but this was only temporary, and they turned north once again, to the point now that they have subsequently turned bullish. USDCAD is reversing to the south. USDCHF is still bullish, but the intraday trajectory is currently south. If it turns north again, it will be a buy signal. USDJPY remains more-or-less directionless.
Wednesday / May 6, 2020 / 2:00 AM GMT AUDJPY, AUDUSD, and CADJPY have turned right back around and started heading south again. Technically, EURAUD is still bearish from a daily context, but the intraday trend is presently bullish. EURGBP, EURJPY and EURUSD are still bearish. GBPJPY is still more or less neutral. Yesterday I wrote that GBPUSD was still evidencing a bearish day-to-day trend, but the intraday trend was in an upward trajectory. I also wrote that if the intraday trend reversed south, it would be a sell signal, and this is what has happened. NZDJPY and has turned right back around and is once again bearish, just like all the other yen pairs I follow, including USDJPY. And NZDUSD appears to be turning south as well. USDCAD is still bearish, but as for how long that will continue to be the situation is currently in question. USDCHF still remains bullish.
Wednesday / May 6, 2020 / 11:15 AM PST AUDJPY is still bearish, along with AUDUSD, CADJPY, EURPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD and USDJPY. After only about 48 hours of heading south, EURAUD looks like it might be attempting to initiate a full-fledged reversal to once again head north. EURGBP has turned north along with USDCAD. USDCHF still remains bullish.
Thursday / May 7, 2020 / 8:30 AM GMT EURAUD has flipped and turned south. Several other pairs might soon follow. In fact, AUDJPY, AUDUSD and USDJPY are already registering as bullish. On the other hand, USDCHF has not yet shown any significant inclination to change. UPDATE: 9:00 AM GMT... GBPJPY and GBPUSD are sending sell signals, suggesting their jaunts north were merely temporary pullbacks. Similarly, EURGBP is once again generating bullish intraday numbers.