The 40-day baseline suggests that the descent which the U.S. dollar-Loonie began in March of 2020 might be running out of steam, as do the 32- and 24-day measures. And though the 12-day baseline is once again bearish (thanks to the fall from 1.2900 initiated on September 20, 2021) it seems more likely that this measure will rebound rather than begin pulling all the longer-term measures down with it. With the rate having already fallen below my initial support levels, and the 2- and 6-hour baselines having now turned bullish, I will be watching to see if the 24- and 48-hour moving averages join them in turning bullish as well over the course of the next day or two. If they do, I will buy the pair.
The U.S. dollar-Chief evidenced a prolonged decline beginning March 2019, but that came to an end at the start of March this year. From a broader perspective, the pair is now conflicted. The 6- and 40-day baselines are pointing downward, whereas the 12-, 24-, and 32-day measures are all climbing. It has more or less limited itself to the region between 0.9093 and 0.9275 for the last four months, popping below this range once at the end of July and above it twice last month. Nonetheless, at present, the pair is more bullish than bearish, gaining ground overall since the beginning of August. Moreover, it might have bounced off my primary level of support last Thursday, with the 6- to 16-hour baselines all remaining neutral to slightly bullish, which is why I plan to buy this asset if and when the hourly moving average crosses above the slower 2-hour baseline, even though the 24- and 48-hour measures are still bearish.
I should know in two or three days if this makes sense... USDJPY is bullish overall, so selling the pair is a somewhat risky affair. Nonetheless, the rate has reached the upper atmosphere of the six-day price range, with the two- through 16-hour moving averages having all turned south and price having dropped below the 24-hour baseline. The conservative thing to do would be to wait for the 48-hour trend to also form a downward hinge before shorting the pair, but I’m going to act aggressively and sell the pair now.
The Cable-Yen initiated a prolonged climb back at the end of September 2020, but subsequently ran out of steam in June of this year. As a result, the 12-day baseline turned bearish in July, and during the following two months the 24-, 32- and 40-day measures have all come to look neutral. Of course, the rate has been climbing since the start of this month, but so much so that it breached the most extreme level of the 6-day price range to almost reach the top band of the 12-day moving average envelope. Consequently, I've been waiting for price to succumb to the influence of mean reversion/regression toward the mean, as suggested by a downward hook in the 24- and 48-hour baselines. This appears to be about to happen, so if nothing changes, my plan is to enter a short position on the first or second day of trading next week.
The Euro-Cable is overall bearish, so this pair is offering a FAR from perfect trade. Nonetheless, the 24-hour baseline HAS formed an upward hinge, and price IS now located above the 48-hour measure. So, IF the pair follows through, it SHOULD return at least SOME amount of profit.
The 40-day baseline suggests that the descent which the U.S. dollar-Loonie began in March of 2020 has more or less run out of steam, as do the 32- and 24-day measures. And though the 12-day trend line is once again bearish (thanks to the fall of price from 1.2900 initiated on September 20, 2021) the 24-hour baseline just formed an upward hinge, with the rate now located above the 2-day measure. Consequently, my plan is to buy this pair the next time it comes out of a pullback in the 6-hour price range.
SOMETHING NEW I just wrote in another post that beginning next week, I plan to introduce the concept of range trading into my system, which I kind of do already. However, I now intend to make it my primary focus going forward, which it wasn't previously. This is not to be confused with range-bound trading, since I plan to do this in a way that is dynamic and can be applied to both consolidating or trending markets. I believe that there is a good chance this will eventually lead to very few trades that garner only a few pips profit, with most resulting in returns of perhaps 20 to 100 pips each. With this in mind, I have two currency pairs that are of particular interest to me next week. The first is EURAUD, which I plan to sell whenever the rate is rejected by the top of the range... The second is USDCHF, which I also plan to sell whenever price is rejected by the top of the range. But... now that I think about it, rather than continue to limit myself to the 13 or 14 pairs I've been trading for the last seven years, I think I'll begin checking all 16 or so pairs offered by OANDA, and the countless instruments available with Forex.com, for those that are ideally structured for this kind of trading style.
The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen appears to have become sort of range bound over the last few days. If this pattern is going to continue, I am thinking that it is at least somewhat possible the pair has initiated a new leg to the south.
Put these possibly developing opportunities on your Watch List... Buy the U.S. dollar-Danish krone (USDDKK) Buy the U.S. dollar-Czech koruna (USDCZK) Buy the U.S. dollar-Swedish krona (USDSEK) Buy the U.S. dollar-Norwegian krone (USDNOK) Buy the U.S. dollar-Polish zloty (USDPLN)