Thanks! Should this happen, I'll let you know. At some point subsequent to that (if and when it actually occurs) I'm likely to offer some kind of signal service to the pubic, with a free one-week trial so people can see for themselves that it's a legitimate system which works virtually 100% of the time—preferably a setup where they can just log-in to a live screen where they can view alerts indicating when to enter positions and when to pocket gains in real time. (Unfortunately, this would only apply to foreign currency pairs—no index futures or any other markets would be covered or monitored.)
Saturday / August 21, 2021 / 10:40 AM PST I was messing around with writing code in MetaQuotes Language 4 when I had the thought that I should avoid situations like the one pictured below—where you get a cluster of LOSING buy and sell signals all in the same region—by trading toward the mean when price approaches support or resistance (the dotted-black lines) only to reverse direction toward the underlying baseline/moving average (executing such trades on lower-time-frame charts, where I can actually see the reversals in real time). I also had the thought the such support and resistance levels hold better when an asset is neutral (as suggested by the horizontal bold black line) than when it is trending, as it appears to be doing on the left side and especially on the right side of the screenshot. I think this should improve the manner in which I use daily charts, because I now have a better sense (I think) of when to anticipate possible reversals in the day-to-day trend in both directions—with the overall general trend and against it.
SATURDAY / SEPTEMBER 35, 2021 This thread is no longer a place for me to explore my ideas. Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is now fully fleshed out and confirmed (in my eyes) via my having run back tests that were profitable both from a longer-term perspective AND at the intraday level. Accordingly, the thread will now serve solely as a place for me to interpret what I see on my charts and to plan potential trades I anticipate possibly making in the near future. AUDJPY has turned overall bearish, so you'll want to wait to begin shorting the pair, ideally after it climbs above the 81.33 level. AUDUSD is in the exact same situation, except that the above rate is in the middle of the six-day price range whereas AUDUSD is at the top of the lower third. Consequently, you could opt to try buying the pair during pullbacks in the 24-hour trend as price climbs to the 0.7407 level (if it does) and then turn around an begin entering short positions as it falls back down (if it does). Of course, you could choose to do the same thing with AUDJPY. Look for opportunities to sell CADJPY if it reverses south somewhere above 87.64. EURAUD is in the middle of the six-day price range. It would be a more attractive buy somewhere down around 1.5930. Avoid EURGBP and its neutral/range-bound price action. EURJPY is also neutral, unless you want to attempt trading it up and down between 128.33 and 130.92. The 12-day trend is neutral while the 40-day trend is bearish for EURUSD, with price at the top of the lower third of the six-day baseline. If anything, look for opportunities to buy during pullbacks in the daily trend (if the rate begins to rise) up to the 1.1922 level, where you'll want to reverse course and look to sell. (Actually, this last part is what you really should wait to do.) GBPJPY has seen the 40-day baseline climb over the last year or so whereas the 12-day baseline has been falling for the last three months. The pair is now neutral and is not a good candidate for trading. (Price is currently in the middle of the 6-day price range.) GBPUSD is not all that different from GBPJPY except that it looks to be a tiny bit further along in the process of possibly turning over. You should probably look to begin selling the pair if it happens to climb up to the 1.3883 level. Watch out for trigger signals to buy USDCAD... ESPECIALLY if the rate drops down to 1.2534 or lower. USDCHF is more or less neutral. You probably shouldn't do anything until and unless if falls to somewhere around the 0.9105 neighborhood, at which point, it will become an attractive buy candidate. (If it keeps climbing, it's going to become bullish again sooner rather than later. And even though it's been climbing all month, there is no guaranty it will pull back anytime soon seeing as how, under extreme conditions, it could hypothetically/theoretically climb as high as the 0.9464 region.) USDJPY is the same as GBPJPY except that it's been climbing only seven months rather than an entire year. Given its present neutrality, you might opt to sell if you get trigger signals after the rate reaches the 110.99 level, if it climbs that high.
So, here is what I believe I have learned from last week’s excursion into the world of back testing… The 12-day baseline I had been using to gauge longer-range projections was not actually long enough. It only gave me the immediate longer-term trend. It turns out that there exists an even longer overarching price flow which is conveyed by the 40-day baseline, and it is important that I consider BOTH in combination with one another when making longer-range forecasts. Ideally, I want to be trading in the same direction as the course of these two baselines whenever they are aligned, entering positions as the 24-hour baseline crosses from the "near" exterior into the "near" interior of the 6-day price range envelope at 1.00% deviation, or if not then, certainly no later than when the 24-hour baseline crosses the center of the envelope (i.e., the 6-day baseline itself); and then taking profit when price exits the envelope on the other side (i.e., the "far" exterior of the envelope). However, to maximize profits (not to mention the frequency with which one is able to pocket gains) it makes sense to buy and sell while price action is taking place inside the interior of the envelope using a pseudo swing style of trading in which positions are entered as price crosses the eight-hour baseline, and then taking profit as it advances even father, going on to cross the corresponding band of the 16-hour price range envelope at 0.26% deviation. However, if trading manually, it probably makes more sense to enter positions as the 1-, 2- (and 4-) hour baselines reverse direction in a manner suggesting that price is realigning itself with the trajectory of the dominant trend after veering on a course that was opposed to it. To ensure the trade will have enough room to run, positions should (ideally) not be entered if candlesticks are forming beyond the "far side" of the 24-hour price range envelope at 0.9% deviation and/or the 16-hour price range envelope at 0.17% deviation. And obviously, the time to take profit is when the same two or three moving averages again reverse direction, suggesting that price is once again turning against the overall trend. (It appears that profitable intraday trades can also be executed [manually] in the direction of similarly aligned 1-, 2- and 3-hour baselines as price is coming out of pullbacks in the 30-minute price range envelope, with exits being made as the 15-minute baseline appears to reach a point of exhaustion.)
When I look at USDJPY, I see a 40-day trend that is losing momentum, and at 12-day trend that has now turned neutral. When I add to this my deeming the pair to be near the top of a 6-day price range that stretches from 108.75 to 110.97 and the fact that the 1- through 4-hour baselines have turned south, I am thinking there is a better than 50% chance the pair will head back down toward the direction of 109.94 sooner rather than later.
At 0.7262, AUDUSD has pulled back into the 24-hour and 16-hour "buy zones." Also, it is at the top of the bottom third of the six-day price range. I would therefore recommend that I buy the pair if and when I see an upward hook form in the 2-hour baseline.
Because my last two forecasts did not pan out, I have made a slight adjustment and look forward to seeing if this one unfolds as anticipated... The Cad-Yen’s formerly bullish 40-day baseline looks to have lost all momentum. Moreover, the 12- and 24-day baselines have already turned bearish. Add to this the fact that the rate is in the upper regions of the 6- and 12-day price ranges, not to mention that the 8-hour baseline turned south ten hours ago, and I think I have sufficient reason to short the pair. This will be confirmed if the rate drops any lower than where it is now, at which point, it will be below the 24-hour baseline as well. (I also notice that it is bouncing off a strong zone of horizontal resistance.)
All of the longer-term trend lines I consult are bearish when it comes to AUDUSD. The only reason I might hesitate to sell the pair is because it is near the bottom of the six- and twelve-day price ranges. However, after a temporary climb initiated on September 23rd, it began sinking fast on the 28th. Given that the 8- through 24-hour baselines are all still bearish, my hope is that the pair resumes its downward trek as soon as this current pullback is exhausted.
Just about everything in connection with the U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar is bullish. The 6-day price range envelope turned bullish on June 16th, the 12-day baseline followed on June 29th, joined by the 24-day on August 8th, and the 40-day baseline just five or six days ago. The 24-hour baseline resumed a bullish trajectory two days ago, so now that the 2-, 3-, and 4-hour baselines look to be bouncing out of the pullback they initiated around the start of yesterday, this might be a good time to reestablish a long position.