Yeah, I like it. I just plotted it on my one-hour charts, and it does what the 12-hour measures do, but it's more "stable" and paints a picture that heightens the amount of confidence I think it's safe to hold about the direction in which rates are ultimately headed.
CADJPY’s four-day trend has lost a lot of momentum, yet it is still slightly bearish, with candlesticks painting in the upper half of the four-day price range. It would therefore seem to make sense to look for opportunities to sell that pair as soon as the 16-hour measures turn bearish. USDJPY has tagged the center of bearish 12- and 16-hour price ranges—reason to be on the alert to enter a short position if the 2- (and 4-) hour baseline(s) turn south. (So then, there appears to be no need to look for it to climb back up to the 110 level.) The 16-hour measures are climbing in the case of EURJPY, with the candlesticks having tagged the baseline. This would recommend buying the pair if and when the 2- (and 4-) hour baselines turn north, even though the four-day tend is still bearish. The same is true NZDJPY (it is in the lower half of a climbing 16-hour price range envelope and is therefore a candidate for a long position) except that the rate has dipped well below the 16-hour baseline, down to the four-hour price range support level and almost down to the 16-hour price range support level. Likewise NZDUSD.
Yeah Baby! It always seemed to me like there ought to be a measure, theoretically speaking, able to delineate between a head fake and a bona fide breakout, but I could never find one that proved to be valid and reliable enough to fill the bill. However, it's looking to me like the 16-hour measure at 0.14% deviation just might be it.
The following assertion might (or might not) be true... If the two-hour and one-hour price range envelopes are above the 0.14% (or more) deviation level of the 16-hour baseline, it's possible that high probability trades (long positions) might often be entered at the lower boundaries (the corresponding support levels) of these two envelopes. If the two-hour and one-hour price range envelopes are below the 0.14% (or more) deviation level of the 16-hour baseline, it's possible that high probability trades (short positions) might often be entered at the upper boundaries (the corresponding resistance levels) of these two envelopes. Drop the use of the 8- and 12-hour baselines to suggest where rates are ultimately headed, because when trading from an intraday perspective, only the more immediate trends are actionable, perhaps from four hours on down, and most certainly from two hours on down (to 17 minutes, or perhaps ten minutes at a minimum); and from a swing trading perspective, it seems to be that the 16-hour baseline is the ultimate arbiter of bullish and bearish bias/sentiment, though you do want to keep the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.78% deviation. (Don't be surprised to find that opinions expressed in these last few posts end on constituting your culminating conclusions regarding how to best go about applying Numerical Price Prediction to trading the Forex market.) .. ....Monday, August 2, 2021
The following assertion might also be true (or not)... If the four-day measures are sloping downward, it's possible that high probability trades (short positions) might often be entered as the four-hour and 16-hour measures are reversing direction from bullish to bearish projections, provided that candlesticks are closing near the top of these two price ranges at the time. If the four-day measures are sloping upward, it's possible that high probability trades (long positions) might often be entered as the four-hour and 16-hour measures are reversing direction from bearish to bullish projections, provided that candlesticks are closing near the bottom of these two price ranges at the time.
Proverbs 11:14 Where there is no guidance, a people falls, but in an abundance of counselors there is safety. Proverbs 15;22 Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed. Proverbs 24:5-6 A wise man is full of strength, and a man of knowledge enhances his might, for by wise guidance you can wage your war, and in abundance of counselors there is victory. Numerical Price Prediction Principles #3 and #2: The best plans are usually established in the presence of a multitude of counselors; and systems generally operate at peak performance when the interactions between their component parts evidence strong, healthy relationships. And so it is that I might very well be dropping the 2-day measures that have for so long occupied a place of prominence in my trading system, having been regarded as critical to the success of Numerical Price Prediction. For what now seems to have emerged is that recognition of longer term sentiment/bias is perhaps best left to the four-day baseline; and actionable trade opportunities are probably best conveyed by the team of two-hour through 16-hour moving averages along with the 16-hour price range envelope at three successively extreme levels; with the 48-hour baseline having never really deserved any say in these matters whatsoever. So long, old friend.
This measure (two hours) is still is still valid if you are doing intraday trading, but you are keying off of much larger moves now.
Guess what? I was able to use 15-minute charts to combine the intraday configuration with the setup geared more toward pseudo swing trading. So, welcome back two-hour price range envelopes!!!
Of course, the above is from more of a macro-level context. At the micro level, the measure that I judge to delineate between a head fake and a bana finde breakout is the 17-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation.
Two hours was never rejected, my man. You confused yourself! Your comment was that you were dropping the two-day measure—not the two-hour measure.