From my perspective, this wasn't such a great day for trading. So, this morning's activity was for the most part just a study to test the notions recorded in the previous two posts, which as far as I'm concerned, were confirmed by these corresponding results... ...which basically wraps up the quest I began back on August 12, 2017. I therefore will no longer be posting any daily analyses here, but will do this, if I begin it again at all, via another social platform I use that happens to have subscriber capabilities..
(Possibly) one last thing: At this point, 15-minute charts seem to be the ideal time frame to use when trading based on the above guidelines—displaying enough "canvas" to convey the big picture, yet detailed enough to select optimal levels for entering and exiting positions—which should be executed upon observing reversals in the instantaneous moving average(s).
UPDATE: It's been twelve days since my last post to this thread, but I think this is important... Based on this mornings observations, I now believe it is the eight-hour baseline that is the ultimate arbiter of the general, overall intraday bias after all, and NOT the twelve-hour baseline, which is too lagging. So ideally, at least theoretically, the best time to enter a position is as the 13-minute baseline is reversing direction when candlesticks have been painting on the "wrong" side/half of a distinctly sloping eight-hour price range envelope, probably at around 0.35% deviation at the max.
Or perhaps... ...the best time to enter a position is as the 35-minute price range envelope is reversing direction when candlesticks have been painting on the "wrong" side/half of a distinctly sloping eight-hour price range envelope, probably at around 0.35% deviation max.
Tuesday / July 27, 2021 / 6:20 PM PST If you look at the market from the perspective expressed in this entry from Post #565 in your Duxon's Archive thread... ...you get "landscapes" not unlike what you see here, with hill after hill forming all kinds of peaks and valleys: I think you ought to be able to enter positions at the tops of these hills and ride them all the way down to the bottom, so let's give it a try. Right now, you have what looks to be down legs forming (starting from yesterday) on AUDJPY, CADJPY, (EURGBP), EURJPY, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD. Ideally, you want to see a pullback in the two-hour baseline, and then enter positions as this measure reverses direction to realign itself with the longer-term measures—the eight-hour, twelve-hour, two-day, four-day, and twelve-day baselines and price range envelopes. Let's see if you can do this, and if you can, what happens afterward.
Maybe so, but you can spend multiple days "trapped" in a trajectory that was on a course which countered the slope of the eight-hour price range envelope, only to discover to your horror that the counter trend eventually convinces the longer measure to come along and join it! So, in the final analysis, it actually seems better to trade in the direction of the slopes of the 40-minute through 4-hour price range envelopes, ideally entering positions following reversals in the 10- through 23-minute baselines at the outer edges of the one-hour price range envelope at 0.14% to 0.22% deviation, the two-hour price range envelope at 0.20% to 0.60% deviation, and/or the four-hour price range envelope at 0.40% to 0.50% deviation. This is especially true when entering positions from the "wrong" half or side of a distinctly sloping two-hour price range envelope.
I want you to start monitoring the direction and deviation levels of the weekly measures. I think you will probably be able to take advantage of this kind of information to enter positions during optimal days during the week to maximize longer-term (pseudo swing trading type) opportunities. For example, the rates of both USDCAD and USDCHF are near the bottom of the four-day price range at the moderate (but not the extreme) level. So, it would make sense to look for opportunities to buy these pairs next week, even though USDCHF is bearish and USDCAD is neutral. But remember, such moves should not be made until and unless the one- through four-hour measures are bullish.
. (Speaking to myself...) Let's review the week to help establish what it might be that you will want to be looking for going forward. Let's divide the four-hour price range into three levels: moderate, intermediate, and extreme deviation. The time to sell AUDJPY was on Thursday when the rate was rejected at 81.35, near a down-sloping four-day baseline, as price breached the intermediate resistance level of the four-hour price range. At Friday's close, your profit would have been more than 80 pips, and price is still falling. Similar to the situation with USDJPY, probably the best thing to do at this point is to wait for the rate to climb back up near 81.25, and then sell the pair once again once the hourly-trend lines turn south. AUDUSD climbed above a down-sloping four-day baseline on Thursday, and the two- and four-hour baselines began to turn over at the start of Friday after price had breached the extreme resistance level of the four-hour price range around mid Thursday...time to sell. The eight-hour baseline also turned over about a half a day (fourteen hours) later. Consequently, this pair is now in the same situation as AUDJPY. CADJPY: The eight-hour baseline is rolling over right now, but the four-day trend is neutral. Nonetheless, this pair is still a sell (RIGHT NOW) but ONLY as the 10- and 17-minute trend lines are turning south, and ONLY so long as the 2-hour measures remain bearish and the 60-minute measures remain neutral to bearish. EURAUD is super bullish, but the rate is currently approaching the top of the four-day price range. Hence, you want the hourly baselines to turn south so that you can buy the pair as they turn north again. I recommend you stay away from EURGBP, though technically it is bearish and a sell between 0.8555 up to 0.8667. EURJPY is losing downward momentum and price no longer looks all that averse to finding itself above the four-day baseline. EURUSD: The four-day baseline looks neutral and it is unclear as to whether it might be in the process of turning/reversing north. The same is true of GBPJPY. GBPUSD turned bullish four days ago, so technically, it is a buy below 1.3803. The highest probability trade, the best-case scenario, would be for the four- and eight-hour trend lines to continue heading south, and then to turn north at the same time, at which point, you'd want to be long any time the 60- and 120-minute baselines are ascending. The time to sell NZDPY was seven hours before Friday's close, as the hourly baselines rolled over as they bounced off the downward sloping four-day trend line. On Thursday, NZDUSD tagged the moderate resistance level of the 12-hour price range after breaching the extreme resistance level of the four-hour price range, with the hourly baselines turning over at the start of Friday, and the eight-hour baseline turning over 10 hours later...with all of this happening above a bearish four-day baseline. So, as was the case with NZDJPY, the time to sell was seven hours before Friday's close. USDCAD: The bullish four-day trend has lost all momentum and might now be neutral. Nonetheless, the rate was just rejected at the moderate support level of the four-day price range, and even the eight-hour baseline has hooked north along with all the other hourly measures. Consequently, this pair is a buy, but ONLY as the 10- and 17-minute trend lines are turning north, and ONLY so long as the 2-hour measures remain bullish and the 60-minute measures remain neutral to bullish. USDCHF is in a situation similar to that of USDCAD except that the hourly baselines have yet to hook north and the four-day trend is still bearish. I would rather wait for the four- and eight-hour baselines to turn north and approach the 0.9136 to 0.9162 region, and then turn south again before doing anything with (i.e., selling) this pair. USDJPY is crazy. I think your best bet would be to try selling it if and only if it climbs back above 110.00. But, you would need to strictly obey the protocol suggested above (i.e., trade in the direction of the slope of the 60- and 120-minute baselines ONLY, and ONLY when the 10- and 17-minute trend lines are headed in that SAME direction). BUY THE WAY, AT THIS POINT, I WOULD HAVE TO SAY THAT THE SAFEST TAKE-PROFIT TARGET IS THE 17-MINUTE PRICE RANGE AT 0.10% DEVIATION.