Technically, I shouldn’t have sold EURAUD because, even though The 16-, 24-, and 32-hour baselines were all bearish, the 2- and 4-hour baselines were not, and there was no guaranty that the pair would follow through on the downward hinge in the 1-hour baseline, nor confirmation validating rejection by the 16-hour temporal resistance level at 1.5543. Likewise, I technically shouldn’t have bought CADJPY because, even though The 16-, 24-, and 32-hour baselines were all bullish, the 2- and 4-hour baselines were not, and there was no guaranty the pair would follow through on the upward hinge in its 1-hour baseline, nor confirmation validating rejection by the 16-hour temporal support level at 89.35. However, as I am typing this entry, EURAUD is seeing its 2- and 4-hour baselines turn south, so this time I will opt for a 0.02 lot trade size and a more ambitions take-profit target of 1.5420...
EURAUD never followed through on the turn south, and now, the 8- and 16-hour baselines are suggesting that they are turning north. But, why should that be any surprise? As the image from the daily chart below shows, the “numbers” indicate that the Euro-Aussie dollar completed its downward trek last month (April). So, instead of shorting the pair, I will now wait for it to pull back to somewhere between 1.5473 to 1.5505 so I can enter a long position...
CADJPY saw its 4-hour baseline turn north about eight hours ago. However, unlike EURAUD, it did not turn against me to stop me out, but eventually hit my (slightly adjusted) take-profit target at 89.99.
EURGBP came within about 25 pips of tagging the lower band of the four-day price range envelope before popping up above the 2-, 4-, and 8-hour baselines. It therefore has plenty of room to float upward, with a 12-day baseline that has turned slightly bullish. So, will it follow through by climbing above the 16-hour baseline as well and then stay there?
Longer Range Outlook From 2015 to maybe 2018 swing trading was not an option for me, and I would use 60-minute charts to help inform my decision making on 1-minute charts. But, this is no longer the case, and with the clarity I think is now available from the longer-term time frames, I'm going to begin attempting to use daily charts to inform my entry levels at the 15-minute level to see how long I'm willing to remain in those positions. That said, I'm going to watch AUDJPY to see if it follows through on falling from a day-to-day standpoint, and if it does, wait to buy it somewhere between perhaps 84.40 down to 83.37 if-and-when its 24-hour baseline begins to hook north. AUDUSD has already fallen. Because candlesticks are now painting above the 2-hour baseline, I'm going to buy the pair. But, I will be watching to find out if this was a mistake, and whether I should have waited for it to clear the 4-, 8-, and/or 16-hour baseline(s) instead. I also need to find out if I will be willing to remain in the position until the rate hits 0.7847, which it theoretically ought to accomplish sooner or later. If EURGBP forms a green daily candlestick today, I would expect to see it once again climb back up to the 0.8680 neighborhood. EURUSD's situation is similar to that of AUDUSD except that it's position is smack dab in the middle of the 4-day price range rather than the bottom half, as is the case with the Aussie-U.S. dollar, meaning it has more room to reverse direction and fall even farther. NZDJPY shares AUDJPY's situation, and the scenario in which NZDUSD finds itself is about the same as that of AUDUSD. And finally, the set of conditions defining USDCHF are more-or-less the mirror opposite of AUDUSD and ERUGBP.
Longer Range Outlook (continued) I was stopped out of my AUDUSD position, whereas my EURGBP position appears to be on its way to a successful outcome... So, based on my observations thus far, I would have to say that it is with this style of trading that the 8-hour baseline begins to take on the kind of importance assigned to it in previous posts, where it was viewed as conveying the ultimate direction in which price is headed from a practical standpoint. (The 2- and 4-hour baselines evidence too much "wobble" to be trusted at this level/in this context.)
I just now entered an EURUSD long position when candlesticks began painting above the 8-hour baseline. However, the moving average has not yet begun to curve upward, and the 2-hour baseline is merely neutral. I will therefore be curious to see whether the rate continues to climb. (The 40-minute baseline is bullish, but has been straddling the 2-hour baseline indecisively for the last 16 hours). (I need to also note [for myself] that the 16-hour temporal support/resistance levels and the 4-hour price range envelope [at 0.40% deviation] maintain their importance in terms of identifying entry/exit levels, stop losses, and take-profit targets.)
I'm going to go ahead and cash in on this trade now so that if I end up being sabotaged by my attempt at letting my other "winners run," I will at least have this successful trade to soften the blow... It turns out I was unwilling to attempt to "ride out" USDCHF "to the end" as well, so I just pocketed the available gains it was offering a minute ago after falling 26 pips.
I let NZDUSD go longer than any other position (in my Forex.com account) and ended up with just under 50-pip's worth of profit. (The rate was still rising when I cashed in.) The above trade was successful, but you should nonetheless wait for the 8- (and 4-) hour price range envelope(s) [which are easier to see than the baselines] to begin sloping in the direction you want to go before executing your trades. No sabotage here! As best as I can tell... this is the trading technique you're going to want to be using from here on out.
Friday / May 14, 2021 / 2:40 PM PST The 16-hour baseline is more-or-less the arbiter of whether the intraday bias is bullish or bearish. The daily and 1⅓-day baselines also help to convey the gist of where price is going. Interestingly enough, you no longer have 2-day measures on your chart. I suspect the 2-day baseline is a bit too lagging, and the 2-day price range envelope probably does not define price action as well as the closer fitting 16-hour, daily, and 1⅓-day price range envelopes. Also, its likely that the 4-day price range envelope does a better job of suggesting where rates are generally headed overall (with the 6-day and 12-day baselines exhibiting too much lag to do a good job of filling this role from a practical [i.e., actionable] standpoint).