Sunday / April 4, 2021 The 12-day baseline is actually the weekly instantaneous moving average. So then, this table uploaded on March 23rd (Post #278) is saying that the weekly instantaneous moving average conveys the month-to-month bias: However, this measure is too low/short/fast to paint a valid picture of when rates are initiating a reversal in the monthly trend. It needs to be more like the 18-day baseline. So, you need to change the chart accordingly. Also, the year-to-year sentiment probably needs to be doubled. Make it the 72-day baseline instead.
So then ultimately, from an intraday and swing trading perspective, I ideally want to be trading in the direction of the 12-day trend. From there, I drop down to the four-day (not six-day) baseline, which brings me to the U.S. dollar-Loonie. The 12-day trend has been bearish ever since May of last year. The day-to-day sentiment turned bullish on March 18th, but as of March 31st, resumed a bearish attitude, which is now being confirmed by the two-day (and most of the other longer-term) baseline(s). So, as soon as the four-hour baseline turns south as well, I'll want to enter a short position. The ideal take-profit target would be somewhere around 1.2417, for a roughly 158-pip trade.
Monday / April 5, 2021 / 7:00 AM PST Initial observations from the new four-hour chart configuration... You're still looking to the 12-day baseline for where rates are ultimately headed from week to week. the other baselines plotted on the chart include the 24-hour, 16-hour, and 4-hour. The price ranges you plotted include the 12-day, 4-day, and 16-hour. The most obvious (three) trade setups include entering positions when... Price is reversing direction as it is rejected upon reaching the limits of the 16-hour price range located on the half of the envelope opposite the slope of the 12-day baseline. The 24-hour baseline is transitioning from a trajectory headed in the direction opposite that of the slope of the 12-day baseline to a course that is aligned with it. Price begins reversing direction after crossing to the "wrong" side of the aligned 16-hour and 24-hour baselines to the side in sync with their matching slopes. (When you have time, compare these three setups with the five listed in your personal notes that were written from a one-hour perspective.)
This is the first of what should be the definitive trade setups you will be looking to take advantage of from this point on: Enter positions when the 8-hour baseline reverses direction to rejoin the slope of the 12-day trend—especially if and when the reversal is being confirmed by the 16-hour baseline. (You have even more reason to execute this type of trade if price is simultaneously being rejected at the four-day temporal support/resistance level.) You also wrote it this way: If the slope of the 12-day baseline is clearly angled in a given direction, and the 8-hour baseline assumes a trajectory headed in the opposite direction; enter positions as the 8-hour trend reverses direction so as to realign itself with the twelve-day baseline—especially if the slopes of the 2-day, 4-day and/or 6-day trends match that of the 12-day baseline. Here is an intraday corollary to the swing trade setup describe above: If candlesticks begin painting at or near the 96-hour (4-day) temporal support/resistance level, enter positions as the 40-, 60-, 90-, and/or 120-minute baseline(s) reverse direction (as price is rejected at such levels). Here is a completely different scenario to look for using a lower time frame chart: Enter positions when the 40-minute baseline reverses direction to realign itself with the slope of the 8-hour baseline—especially when this occurs near the upper or lower end of the 4-hour price range. (You have even more reason to execute this type of trade if the 60-, 90-, and/or 120-minute baselines are reversing direction right along with it.) This setup might constitute an intraday corollary to the one described above: If the slope of the eight-hour baseline is clearly angled in one direction or the other, and candlesticks begin painting at or near the 14-hour temporal support/resistance level, enter positions as the 40-, 60-, 90-, and/or 120-minute baselines reverse direction (as price is rejected at such levels). Here is yet another swing-style setup: If candlesticks begin painting at or near an outer edges of the 4-day and/or 12-day price range(s), enter positions as the trajectory of the 24-hour baseline transitions from heading toward the relevant band(s) to heading away from it/them—especially if the resulting trade will end up traveling in the same direction as the slope of the 12-day baseline. And here is the last situation you described in your notes this weekend: If the slope of the 4-hour and 8-hour baselines are clearly angled in a given direction, and the slopes of the 1-hour and/or 2-hour baselines adopt a trajectory moving in the opposite direction, enter positions as the 1-hour and/or 2 hour trend lines reverse course so as to realign themselves with the slopes of the 4-hour and 8-hour trends.
This is a less radical version of the above: If candlesticks begin painting at or near an outer edge of the 16-hour price range without pulling the 16-hour baseline up or down with it (i.e., if price begins to reverse direction before this starts to happen), enter positions as the trajectory of the 1-hour baseline transitions from heading toward the relevant band to heading away from it—especially once this action is validated by the 2-hour baseline. (Expect that candlesticks will be bouncing off the 14-hour temporal support/resistance level as this happens.)
Wednesday / April 7, 2021 Anecdotal observations lead me to believe that the probability of a trade being profitable is greatest if it is made in the same direction of the slopes of the four- and twelve-day price range envelopes when the two of them are clearly aligned and trending sharply, as was the case during the central portion of the situation pictured below: Since price is not likely to venturing beyond the 1.25% deviation level of the four-day price range unless it is in the process of reversing the four-day trend, and given that the twelve-day (and possibly even the four-day) baseline(s) are still bearish, I have entered a short position with respect to the above asset based on these two observation-supported theories.
Note, that at the time candlesticks made contact with the lower band of the inner 4-day price range envelope, the 12-day price range envelopes were still sloping upward. And yet, the candlesticks did not reverse direction. (On the other hand, by that time, the 4-day baseline was sloping downward. So, there was nothing suggesting that they should!) It was not until the candles made contact with the lower band of inner 12-day price range envelope that they finally began to turn around. Of course, by this time, the 12-day baseline was sloping downward as well. So, be aware that this sort of thing can happen. But also realize that it took about three days for this whole scenario to play out.
No posts for this tread today. My cumulative knowledge has probably just about reached its max, so I'm thinking my entries are likely to become few and far between soon.
Friday, April 9, 2021 / 8:00 PM PST After this week, I think the crème de la crème of strategies might be a combination of tactic 2 from Post #286 and the suggestion from Post #288. In other words… If the 8-hour baseline is sloping in a given direction, and candlesticks cross to the opposite side of this measure, look to enter positions as the 40-, 60-, 90- and/or 120-minute baselines reverse course AFTER having been rejected by the 14-hour temporal support/resistance level (assuming of course that the slope of the 8-hour baseline remains unaffected)—especially if the 14-hour temporal support/resistance level coincides with an outer edge of the 4- and/or 8-hour price range! I suspect if you use no other setup but this one, you will not only be very profitable, but will also enjoy a near 100% daily success rate.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021 As of this week, I am relying more so on the 3½-day temporal support/resistance channel in place of the 8-hour baseline; and this is in conjunction with the 2-day price range envelope at 0.80% and 1.25% deviation; the 24-hour temporal support/resistance channel in place of the 4-hour price range envelope; and and the 14-hour temporal support/resistance channel; in place of the 2-hour price range envelope. So then, it would appear that the roles played by temporal support/resistance levels are taking over those formerly handled by statistical/typical price ranges.