THREAD RESURRECTION I guess a lot can happen in a month—or even less than a month. The way I am trading NPP now actually has a great deal of relevance when it comes to daily analysis. It's also gotten a lot more complicated, resulting in the need to find a convenient place to record my thoughts. So, rather than start a new thread, I'll simply bring this old one back to life. That said, it looks to me that CADJPY has arrived (for the fourth time) at a significant level of horizontal resistance transitioning into horizontal support on the daily chart...
MARKET SENTIMENT AS OF SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2020 ...I interpret day-to-day bias from both a longer-term and shorter-term perspective... Bearish AUDJPY AUDUSD CADJPY - but could bounce off support at the bottom of the weekly price range any day now EURGBP - but with very little momentum EURJPY - but is siting right above support at the bottom of the weekly price range EURUSD - but is approaching the bottom of the weekly price range (currently at 1.1576) GBPJPY - but is approaching the bottom of the weekly price range (currently at 134.17) GBPUSD - at the moment, but is longer-term bullish NZDJPY NZDUSD - at the moment, but is longer-term bullish Bullish EURAUD USDCAD USDCHF - at the moment, but is longer-term bearish USDJPY
From where did you get that USDJPY is currently bullish! It's bearish right now, dude! Also, on your 15-minute charts, EURAUD looks bearish shorter-term and pretty much neutral longer-term—not bullish! By the way, if you look at the tail of the last candlestick on the daily chart, you'll notice that GBPJPY already hit the bottom of the weekly price range. So, don't be surprised if it keeps heading north from where it is now at 135.46. In fact, on your 15-minute setup, GBPUSD is bullish at the moment and bearish longer-term, so the longer-term measure on your 15-minute charts coincides with the shorter-term measure on your daily charts. This is confusing, so do something tomorrow about standardizing your labels so they are uniform across the time frames.
Your inconsistency in terminology can be reconciled using four-hour charts. What you referred to as the shorter-term trend line on your daily charts is just a tad bit slower than the daily candlestick baseline, so let’s now refer to this entire cluster of measures as the daily candlestick baseline (cluster). The other longer-term moving average(s) don’t exist on any other charts. But when transferred to the four-hour configuration, they give the gist of where price is headed from week to week. So from now on, let’s call them the weekly bias/sentiment. The shorter-term trend lines from the one-hour setup will keep their daily trend line (six-hour trend) label. So, instead of interpreting the broader outlook in terms of a longer-term and shorter-term perspective, you will now be doing so in terms of a longer-term, intermediate, and shorter-term perspective: in terms of the weekly (longer-term), daily candlestick (intermediate), and daily (shorter-term) trend lines.
AUDJPY - the weekly and daily candlestick trend lines are bearish where as the day-to-day tend is neutral. AUDUSD - the weekly and daily candlestick trend lines are bearish and the day-to-day tend looks to be transitioning from bullish to bearish. CADJPY - the weekly and daily candlestick trend lines are bearish while the day-to-day tend has gone from mildly bullish to neutral. EURAUD - the weekly and daily candlestick trend lines are mildly bullish, but day-to-day tend is bearish. (There is no need to continue with this. You can see it all very clearly now on the matching four-hour chart configuration. So, that's all the help you need from this journal regarding the above issue, and daily analysis can now be accomplished rather quickly just by glancing at the four-hour setups. Moreover, if you transfer the weekly trend lines to the one-hour time frame you will have all the same information in greater detail.)
I believe I typed somewhere that the backbone of NPP as I now see it (from the perspective of five-minute charts) consists of the 75-minute baseline and the consensus moving average price range. But, from a broader (and more structural) perspective, I see it as the day-to-day baseline (six-hour trend line) and the four-hour price range.
So far, I'm making money off this strategy (entering positions when price is rejected by the weekly price range's support or resistance) via AUDJPY and CADJPY. I would have thought I'd also be making money form EURJPY, but thus far, this is not the case. I would have loved also taking the opportunity to see what would happen if I purchased a Nadex out-of-the-money weekly binary option contract. But, seeing as how the U.S. presidential election is on Tuesday, I won't be able to do so given that there is no telling what kind of crazy behavior the markets are going to exhibit this week.
There is another price range between your long-standing Daily Candlestick Price Range and the longest time frame referenced here... Consequently, it would be more appropriate to label this intermediate price range as weekly and the longer-term range referenced above as monthly. You have already noted this change in the records you're keeping on your laptop.
On second thought, with the numbers you now have, you can translate everything into hours. So go ahead and do this, and then label each measure to reflect exactly what it is..