Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jul 12, 2019.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    Having finished enhancing the system I created three-and-a-half years ago, I am abandoning most of the threads I started for that purpose, and will now be using this new space as a convenient place to evaluate the pairs I'm following on an ongoing basis.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2019
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  2. tomorton

    tomorton

    Interesting. I have to admire your tenacity in spending so long on this. What're the basic principles of your system?
     
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  3. expiated

    expiated

    Friday, July 12, 2019 9:35 a.m. PST

    EURJPY has pretty much been headed nowhere for the past month-and-a-half, as reflected by the daily chart...

    EURJPYDaily.png
     
  4. expiated

    expiated

    Numerical Price Prediction Protocol:
    1. Use projected zones of support and resistance based on a statistical analysis of typical price ranges in multiple time frames over an extended period of time (primarily using daily charts) to set predetermined levels where entering or exiting positions is likely to maximize the odds of the corresponding trades ending with success (i.e., maximize expectancy).
    2. Once these levels are established, use the four- and/or one-hour chart configurations to recognize when potential trade setups are taking shape at or near these levels based on price evidencing structures/formations indicative of wholesale trend reversals (i.e., candlesticks crossing over all your key/designated moving averages).
    3. As soon as a potential wholesale trend reversal has been confirmed/verified, use the five- and/or one-minute chart configurations to get a fix on the precise entry or exit points that will optimize each trade's profitability and the chances of its ultimately meeting with success.
    4. Rather than exit the trade at predetermined take-profit targets, stay in the position (remain in the trade) until and unless the associated forecast model readings indicate that a given run has come to an end.
    5. Rather than exit trades at a predetermined stop loss, do so as soon as the associated forecast model readings convey a reversal in the profit generating trajectory of price action. (Note: The last two steps can only be carried out if you are actively monitoring/managing your positions. Otherwise, you will have to rely on take-profit targets and stop losses, greatly reducing the effectiveness of your system.)
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2019
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  5. expiated

    expiated

    Friday, July 12, 2019 / 10:15 a.m. PST

    Few if any of the 14 pairs I follow are presently located at a significant level of support or resistance. AUDUSD , currently at 0.7016, will become an attractive candidate for a short position if and when it reaches 0.7063. Likewise, I see significant resistance for NZDUSD once it reaches 0.6739.

    CADJPY has been falling since October of last year, so be watching for a resumption of a southbound trajectory in the day-to-day trend. EURAUD's anticipated climb was cut short, so be on the alert for it to make a second attempt, especially if and when it gets back down to around 1.5960.

    EURPY looks like it might be on its way back down to make a third attempt at breaking through 120.98. EURGBP is primed for a fall, but it's been primed for a fall for about a month and a half now, riding its way up "universal resistance" at an infinitely sustainable rate.

    GBPJPY has been deeply mired in "universal support" for two months, and is being incredibly stubborn about climbing its way out. It has gone absolutely nowhere over the last eight days. GBPUSD bounced off universal support for the third time three days ago, but still has plenty of room to continue climbing if it wishes to do so (up to about 1.2669 at a minimum, if that's what it wants to do).
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2019
  6. expiated

    expiated

    Friday, July 12, 2019 / 5:15 p.m. PST

    Though CADJPY has not hit its projected zone of resistance at 83.40, this is only about 20 pips away from its most recent highs. And though the weekly trend has turned bullish over the last few days, the pair has not been able to make any progress at all over the last five or six. So again, be prepared to enter a short position near the start of next week if this is indeed warranted by the numbers.

    CADJPYDaily.png
     
  7. expiated

    expiated

    Be prepared to short EURGBP following the next "touch and go" if it is unable to climb any higher than 0.8982 on the next pullback (or to short it if it looks like it's not even going to bother to pull back).

    EURGBPH1.png
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2019
  8. expiated

    expiated

    Friday, July 12, 2019 / 10:35 p.m. PST

    It might be worth noting that in the past 17 years (as far back as my charts go) only once has EURGBP closed the month above 0.8955 two months in a row...

    EURGBPMonthly.png
     
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Saturday, July 13, 2019 / 5:30 p.m. PST

    I was evaluating an idea I had for a particular time frame, which seemed to gel quite nicely. However, when I looked up at the chart information, I discovered I was in a different time frame than I had intended.

    Struck by how "perfectly" everything seemed to fit, I configured the elements specifically for conveying the trend, recommending where to enter positions during pullbacks, and where to take profit following price surges.

    Saturday July 13 2019.png

    I know there is all kinds of research indicating that (1) market price changes are random; (2) curve fitting is dangerous because there is nothing in statistics that says when a given set of conditions is no longer valid, or even if a pattern was the result of a “cause/effect” type relationship in the first place, and (3) when a market analyst's forecast comes to pass, there is no way to know if the analyst was correct, or just right this time. However...I'm not buying it.

    Perhaps it was because all these studies were focused on stocks, and very few have looked at exchange rates with matching thoroughness. Or maybe most of these researchers were interested in investing, and after obtaining their results, they simply extrapolated their findings to other styles of trading as well.

    I know I'm not all that smart, and many of these authors are brilliant guys and gals, but that just makes me all the more curious as to why they aren't seeing the same things I'm seeing. (Or maybe some of them are, but rather than sharing the information, they simply go off and form their own hedge funds or whatnot.)
     
  10. expiated

    expiated

    Sunday, July 14, 2019 / 3:30 p.m. PST

    INTRADAY SENTIMENT

    BULLISH
    • CADJPY looks to be initiating a reversal north, but this has yet to be confirmed.
    • The same can be said of EURAUD. But at this point, it is rather neutral.
    • GBPJPY is so far forming an upward bowl.
    BEARISH
    • AUDJPY appears to have rolled over into a bearish intraday bias. If true, 75.73 should have been a reasonable level structurally from which to have entered a short position. The same might be said of NZDJPY at 72.20 and NZDUSD at 0.6694.
    • AUDUSD might also be in the middle of a southbound reversal, but this has yet to be confirmed.
    • EURUSD might be rolling over to head south, but if this is true, it is only in the initial stages of doing so. The same might be said of GBPUSD.
    • USDCAD currently shows no signs of reversing direction.
    • USDCHF (but at this time—only technically)
    NEUTRAL
    • EURGBP
    • EURJPY
    • USDJPY
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2019
    #10     Jul 14, 2019