There's been little to do during the current 24-hour market cycle seeing as how the conclusions I reached after conducting an analysis (or evaluation) of yesterday’s consistently profitable periods of trading gave me numbers indicating that up to this point, today's market conditions are such as to advise against entering any positions or making any trades. Perhaps this is because everyone is waiting (for the time being) until they can get a peek at the Federal Funds Rate and/or see the Federal Open Market Committee's projections and/or its statement a couple of hours from now. But in any event, I decided to use the downtime to determine how long I can sustain winning streaks if using my updated forecast models to trade the horribly structured (in my opinion) NADEX binary option contracts. My aim is to focus exclusively on trade setups guided solely by mathematical odds and statistical probability. If I were a mathematician, I might want to try isolating purely probabilistic models using Bayesian approaches, perhaps, or even Monte Carlo simulations, in order to evaluate trade setups without reliance on other inputs—but unfortunately, a mathematician I am not! Initial results inform me that even with the extra "wiggle room" offered by in-the-money binary option contracts, trading under less than optimal market conditions remains ill advised! Began the day with $105,696.70 Initial contracts: USDJPY > 144.72 USDCAD > 1.3639 $105,821.70 = +$125 profit Next hour: Buying both AUDUSD and USDCAD These pairs were contrarian to one another—USDCAD was the wrong choice! $105, 591.70 = -$230 loss
Hey, I just noticed that these updated models hint at the 90-minute price range being a very useful measure, even under poor trading conditions. I therefore plotted them on a 15-minute chart, which in turn suggested that using the 1½-hour price range in conjunction with the half-day and full-day ranges might constitute a configuration that could very well be successfully used for entering high-probability longer-range profitable positions.
Indeed, it appears that moving the 90-minute measure to the center of my approach has empowered me to recognize the “foolproof” forecast model I wished to have at my disposal before increasing my position size from 0.01 or 0.02 lots to 1.0 lots, with every trade made after its adoption (the last eight) closing in the black. By employing it from the get-go come Friday (tomorrow is a holiday in the USA) I should be able to realize much greater returns by capturing bigger movements earlier in the day. So then, similar to how Jim Simons' Medallion Fund uses quantitative, data-driven strategies to capitalized on subtle, short-term market inefficiencies, Numerical Price Prediction's (NPP's) approach to day trading foreign currency pairs relies on data-driven pattern recognition to integrate the predictive power of repetitive price movements into a disciplined technical analysis methodology—leveraging ongoing real-time data and up-to-the-minute forecast models to interpret short-term price action in view of replicating price structures. The system's exact methodology can be conceptualized in the manner suggested by Nick McDonald of Trade With Precision—as a recipe that combines specific technical tools and confirming signals which align across multiple timeframes at a given moment, thus increasing the likelihood of successful outcomes by stacking the odds in the trader's favor, just as following a tried and true cake recipe ensures one prepares a well-baked delicious desert. Elements such as market structure, levels of support and resistance and typical price ranges are quantified to help identify optimal entry and exit points, ensuring trades align with mathematically justifiable choices stemming from objective, odds-based decisions. It is a robust system that balances rigorous precision with disciplined risk management to optimize trade outcomes. This approach employs: (A) principles akin to flight dynamics, applying physics-like rules to predict asset price movements, along with (B) cycle theory and (C) assumptions compatible with Edgar Peters’ fractal market hypothesis to detect subtle, recurring signals while grounding decisions in key technical levels reflecting past behavior. By combining a predictive edge with a focus on statistically validated trade setups, NPP aims to achieve consistent profitability through relatively rapid, high-probability trades while minimizing exposure to market noise and emotional biases.
I touched on how aspects of the quantitative approach developed by Jim Simons’ Medallion Mund and the recipe-like strategies of Trade With Precision’s Nick McDonald are reflected in the methodology used by Numerical Price Prediction—not to mention how elements of flight dynamics, cycle theory and Edgar Peters’ Fractal market hypothesis also come into play. However, I neglected to touch on the similarities between NPP’s viewpoint and that of Gareth Soloway, chief strategist at Verified Investing—a perspective he developed over 25 years which emphasizes a disciplined, probability-based approach to trading that leverages key technical levels and statistical odds to enhance profitability. So then, like Soloway, I too focus on key levels for decision making along with a proprietary methodology that combines odds-based price analysis, pattern recognition and critical timing to pinpoint historically proven, high-probability trade setups.
Sunday | June 22, 2025 Friday was supposed to be a stellar day of trading, but was not. I would claim that this was because, once again, I unexpectedly saw how my chart configurations might be made to provide me with even greater clarity, and being the semi-perfectionist I am, I could not help but go down that rabbit hole. This meant I had to subsequently test, analyze and evaluate a number of ideas on how to best take advantage of the resulting forecast models. Over the weekend I coded an alert indicator based on my findings, which is pictured below. It doesn't tell me exactly when to enter positions, but rather, signals me as to when price might POSSIBLY be in the process of pulling back to offer me a more-or-less optimal level from which to go ahead and act. Assuming I don't get any other "bright ideas," I trust Monday will see the kind of results I was originally anticipating on Friday.
Tuesday | June 24, 2025 | 2:15 AM PST Actually, it took me a day longer than I was anticipating. I did not hit my target until today... Very recently I believed all the pieces were in place as far as optimizing my trading system goes. But unfortunately, they were not all positioned correctly within their spots. As of today however, that shortcoming looks to have been rectified. If my position sizes had been 1.0 instead of 0.05 (as I’m planning for July) my take from today’s London session would have been $324.60 instead of just $16.23, and it’s likely the New York session a few hours from now will offer even more opportunities to accumulate additional profit. That amount of daily supplemental income will be more than enough for a simple guy like me just getting started on writing the "final" chapter of his trading odyssey, and returns should only increase as I become less conservative and more comfortable remaining in my positions just a little bit longer. An 80% to 100% daily success rate should be the norm, with 100% not being all that unusual. Again, it’s all about having the ability to recognize, and then having the discipline to execute ONLY the highest probability trades—those with the odds of success being very heavily stacked in the trader’s favor. So with that, I will count my quest to “improve on my current performance” begun seven years ago (on June 9, 2018) as having now been accomplished!
Have there been any independent studies on the success rate of the Sentient Trader software application, developed by David Hickson, that analyzes financial markets by predicting JM Hurst's Market Cycles? Yes, the Sentient Trader Methodology, developed by David Hickson, has shown a 60% success rate in studies when applied to historical stock data. Has shown a 60% success rate according to studies conducted by whom? The studies conducted by David Hickson Those aren't independent studies my dear AI. Hickson emphasizes that success in trading is "not about the software" but about understanding how financial markets truly operate, drawing from the collective experience of consistently profitable traders. (Then why pay for a subscription to his Sentient Trader application?) He provides weekly Trading Room Videos and shorter Trading Report Videos, where he discusses market opportunities and recent trading successes using the FLD Trading Strategy. For example, in a video from April 15, 2013, he reported profitable long trades in S&P 500, NASDAQ, and EURUSD, with the EURUSD trade proving "very profitable". Big deal! In 2013 EVERYBODY was reporting profitable long trades in EURUSD and the U.S. indices. All you had to do was enter a position at the end of March... By the way, didn't Hurst claim a 90% success rate?
Saturday | July 19, 2025 I'd say you have your intraday decision making protocol locked in. So, let's see if we can't fuse it with your day-to-day forecast models… When it comes to AUDJPY’s daily chart, you're looking at conflicting signals. To get an idea as to whether the pair is going to stick with the bearish 16-hour trend or head north with the bullish 10-hour trend, I'd say the key here is to look to see what price does if and when it reaches the 10-hour support level. If it breaks through this barrier, the pair becomes a sell candidate. If it's rejected there and bounces off the level, it becomes a buy candidate. Ditto with AUDUSD. With a slightly bearish bias, at 0.86668 EURGBP is already into first level resistance, so don't be surprised to see it head lower from here. (It won't hit second level resistance until and unless it climbs all the way up to 0.86951.) EURJPY looks sort of neutral, with first level resistance up at 173.34 and first level support down at 171.80. EURUSD looks like it might be trying to turn north after heading south for the last 10 days, which makes it kind of neutral at the moment. So then, it will become a buy candidate if it bounces off 10-hour support down at 1.15977. GBPJPY is all out bullish, so look to enter a long position anywhere the measures recommend you're doing so should price happen to fall below the 10-hour baseline. GBPUSD appears to have turned north after falling for 11 days straight, and is presently sitting on statistical support. So, be prepared to buy the pair as soon as the 40-minute to 60-minute measures recommend it. USDCAD is slightly bullish to neutral. It broke through 10-hour support on Friday, but then climbed back up flush with the level. There's no saying where it might go from here other than to note that secondary statistical support is down at 1.36676. After maintaining a slightly bullish attitude for the past six days USDCHF looks to be attempting to turn south. Consequently, it will become a sell candidate if it bounces off first level statistical resistance up at 0.80404. USDJPY turned neutral on Thursday and remained so on Friday. At 148.799, it is sitting at ten-hour resistance, with ten-hour support down at 148.380.
SUNDAY | July 20, 2025 TRADE OF THE DAY I'm curious to see what happens if I attempt to make market forecasts based on a stripped-down chart configuration designed to distinguish between those pairs in the midst of a chop zone/consolidation/accumulation/distribution from those evidencing a clear day-to-day trend. As of last Friday, that pair would be AUDJPY. Having clearly turned south on Thursday, its present location near the top of the day-to-day price range would suggest that there exists a better than 50/50 chance it will inevitably fall from 96.78. So, this is what I will be watching to see following the opening bell for this week’s trading.