NOTE: USDJPY will run into a level of horizontal support if it drops down to 142.41! (Though the longer-term trends are still bullish, as of 11:00 AM PST, GBPUSD looks like it is trying to send one- and two-hour price action in the opposite direction—south—and USDCAD appears to be doing the opposite, sending things north.)
Monday | June 2, 2025 - 5:00 PM PST . AUDUSD has not closed above 0.6498 since November 29, 2024. So, does this mean the rate is going to come down soon? Until the pattern is broken, recent history recommends buying EURGBP on 10-pip pullbacks in the intraday trend. EURUSD is also sporting a nice bullish trend at the moment. GBPJPY fell all day yesterday. So, will it do the same today? I don't know, but I just sold it at 193.26, so I guess I'll find out. Unfortunately, I don't have time to wait here in my office for the 4¼-and seven-minute baselines to reverse south, so this is NOT going to be an optimal entry level. USDCAD's two-hour price action bullish reversal remains in place, but this only means the rate is back up to the same level where it was seven hours ago.
Obviously, I was stopped out of this position (as 30-minute price flow turned north). However, seven- and 16-hour price action remains bearish, so theoretically, I should eventually have opportunity to enter another short position from an even better location structurally that will offer much more of a potential profit, easily making up for my loss with plenty of icing on top. But, what happens in reality remains to be seen.
I though I got a screenshot of GBPJPY the first time it offered an opportunity to pocket some gains at 193.41 as I was rushing around doing other things, but then when I had a chance to get back to my laptop, I couldn't find the image anywhere. The rate then climbed back up to 193.64, so this second time around I verified that the snapshot was actually in a folder... But then again, I'm just kicking back right now, so I'm at leisure to do so. In both cases, entries were made above the 30-minute price range envelope and exits (assuming this one is actually executed before price reverses direction again) were made below the 30-minute price range envelope. By the way, GBPJPY did not end its climb up to 193.79 until it ran into statistical resistance in the form of the upper band of the two-hour price range envelope.
11:13 PM PST The numbers on AUDJPY say that both two-hour and 30-minute price action are trending well, so I'm curious to see how long this lasts and if it translates to my corresponding short position paying off nicely. EURUSD is looking at a bullish 16-hour baseline with 60-minute price action appearing to be turning north. So, does this mean two-hour price flow will soon follow to rejoin the dominant trend?
12:30 AM PST - Though I was curious to see how long AUDJPY would continue to head south, due to a dramatic acceleration in the rate of change with respect to a number of pairs, making it seem reasonable on my part to lock in the profits offered to me by not only the AUDJPY short position, but also my USDJPY and USDCHF short positions, I went ahead and did so.
TUESDAY | JUNE 3, 2025 - 8:08 AM PST Okay, so to quote former president Joe Biden, "Here's the deal..." Had you not gotten off to such a terrible start with your first two trades, today would have been a stellar day. Other than that, you made only one misstep. But, what's more important is did you learn anything? And the answer is, yes you did. You can go ahead and look for foreign currency pairs where two-hour price action is trending nicely, and in fact, I still think it's a good idea to do so. But, the bottom line is, paramount among all the measures you might consider are the 20-minute baseline and the 30-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation. I'd submit to you that optimal trade conditions for success when considering the possibility of entering positions exist when the slope of the 20-minute baseline is beyond the 0.0364 or -0.0364 level, or better yet, 0.1168 or -0.1168; AND the slope of the 30-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation is beyond the 0.0408 or -0.0408 level, or better yet, 0.0655 or -0.0655; AND the slope of the seven-minute price flow channel at 0.04% deviation is beyond the 0.154 or -0.154 level, depending on whether a rate is trending north or south. So, go ahead and code a sort of proprietary "parabolic SAR" indicator based what you have posed above and let's see what kind of results you get if you employ it during the next 24-hour market cycle. Hopefully, 100% of your positions will be profitable, recommending that all your trades use a stake of 0.05 lots. If things are still going well at the point, it will be time to graduate to trading stakes of 1.0 lots, and if things are still working out from there, there will be no looking back, God willing..
What might be a particularly attractive setup is when two-hour price action is trending well in a particular direction, and the 20-minute baseline and 30-minute price flow channel reverse course from a trajectory that was previously headed in the opposite direction to adopt a new "line of flight" in agreement with the slower but more stable measure.
Here is the corresponding indicator. So, it's only going to register one or two potential trade opportunities per foreign currency pair per day, if at all. However, the resulting trades "should" offer anywhere from moderate to relatively lucrative profits per position. But of course, actual use in real time needs to verify whether this truly represents reality.