Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jun 9, 2018.

  1. Has this magical process knowledge made you rich yeto_O in the trading of the market in your quest adventure
     
    #401     May 22, 2025
  2. expiated

    expiated

    No...the final phase started last week, when my focus switched from development to application completely and totally. I'm currently in the process of transitioning from a stake size of 0.05 to 1.0 lots, which I'm intending to complete by the end of June—MT4 offers nothing in between—which will theoretically enable me to graduate to realizing a profit of hundreds to thousands of dollars per day. My partner in India, who's stuck with me through the entire development process, is pressuring me to rush this final phase, but I intend to continue being highly cautious and patient. A couple of months sacrifice to ensure years of benefit should not really be that big of a deal.
     
    #402     May 22, 2025
  3. expiated

    expiated

     
    #403     May 24, 2025
  4. expiated

    expiated

    the game plan.png
    Sunday - June 1, 2025 | 11:30 PM PST

    I believe it's time for me to begin drastically increasing the amount of profit I take in each day, God willing. I feel I now have all the pieces in place, so rather than post candlestick chart images, which I was doing when developing my system, whose forecast models have come to paint what I deem to be very accurate and detailed stories in terms of what's transpiring in the Forex market, I'm going to start recording my thoughts to hopefully systematically improve on my mental protocols...and this is my starting point:

    I think your first step at the start of every hour should be to check to see which foreign currency pairs are evidencing highly directional two-hour price flows, with the idea that these are the assets you want to be trading exclusively, BUT only opting to enter positions upon witnessing them execute pullbacks in overall price action.

    So as of this hour, it means keeping an eye on AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD for pullbacks in their bullish trajectories, and USDJPY for pullbacks in its bearish run.

    UPDATE: Nonetheless, you bought AUDUSD just out of curiosity to see if you could scalp a handful of pips out of what presently looked to be a rather strong push north, which paid off in this case...
    chart.png
    Consequently, you have your frequent winning trades overcoming a couple of hefty losses for an overall gain. But still, you want to equal this out so that your frequent winning trades are just as hefty as your relatively infrequent losses.

    UPDATE: Add USDCAD to the pairs that are trending well (bearish).

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    As a second step you should also check your 15-minute charts just to look at things from a different angle. For example, in just doing so you noted that the bullish pairs are seriously pushing the boundaries of typical price action. This was staring you in the face on your hourly charts as well, but for some reason, it hadn't registered, yet it became glaringly prominent when viewing the lower-time-frame configuration.

    This means you should not be looking to buy following pullbacks, but rather, to sell following reversals (i.e., sell if price executes mean reversion/regression toward the mean) even though these will be contrarian trades.

    On the other hand, if rates continue to climb, it will suggest they are being influence by monstrous momentum, and you should buy regardless, because they are embarking on unstoppable runs.

    By the way, similar to AUDUSD, out of curiosity you sold USDJPY just to see what it would do as well, but given how it too was testing the limits (of support) and had not gone anywhere for the last 30 minutes, you locked in a few pips worth of profit and got out in that case as well rather than wait around to see how far it would fall.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #404     Jun 2, 2025
  5. expiated

    expiated

    Screenshot 2025-06-02 003754.png
    No, once you have identified which pairs are trending strongly, you should not be basing any other decision off the hourly charts. Your five minute charts will make it clear when you should resume buying (following pullbacks in seven-minute and/or 30-minute price action) or when you should make a contrarian move (because one- and two-hour price action have headed back toward the six-, seven- and 16-hour baselines).
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #405     Jun 2, 2025
  6. expiated

    expiated

    You sold AUDUSD last night at around 1:10 AM PST—not the reversal, but the pullback. You did so for a handful of pips, and at that point you fell asleep, but you would have still been successful had your target been the bottom of the projected 30-minute price range.

    So then, when is the 30-minute measure a reasonable target? This appears to be the case when the 20-minute baseline indicates it is so.

    You didn't wake up until about six-and-a-half hours later. During that whole time, 60-minute price action was just about neutral, though the two-hour numbers/figures remain bullish. This recommends continuing to buy the pair every time the rate drops down to around the 0.6473 level and then exiting with profit in the neighborhood of 0.6486, yet only for the time being. (But again, 4¼-minute price flow alerts you as to when it might be time to enter or exit positions, with the seven-minute measure confirming such decisions and therefore serving as the actual trigger signal.)

    (Obviously, the pair is not yet opting for a wholesale, fully-fledged reversal.)
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #406     Jun 2, 2025
  7. expiated

    expiated

    This means that rather than exit AUDUSD at 0.6486 this last time around (at 7:58 AM PST) you should still bein the long position at 0.6498 because the 4¼- and seven-minute measures are still headed higher.

    UPDATE: AUDUSD appears to have topped out right around 0.6500, where it was challenging the tops of your projected one- and two-hour price ranges, so you might want to be on the alert for picking up a few pips profit on the way back down during the formation of the next contrarian leg south if price action actually follows through. (This was a no go, seeing as how 4¼-minute price action bounced off or was rejected by statistical support in the form of the bottom of the projected seven-minute price range.)

    AUDUSD broke through seven-minute statistical support at 0.6494 the second time around (about 20 minutes later). Let's see if it hits your target at 0.6490, or if it immediately resumes a bullish attitude and stops you out.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #407     Jun 2, 2025
  8. expiated

    expiated

    Why didn't you note the rapid descent USDCHF initiated at 10:00 PM, which it continued until 2:00 AM this morning? (This move was reflected by 30-minute price action registering a slope beyond not only the preliminary measure of -0.0408, as represented by the corresponding lower panel histogram, but beyond the confirming -0.0655 level as well—not to mention the slope of the seven-minute flow toying with the -0.154 level.)
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #408     Jun 2, 2025
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Target was hit about 20 minutes later, at 9:03 AM PST, with the rate continuing to fall at least two pips lower, presently at 0.6488.

    UPDATE: By climbing near 0.6500 AUDUSD pulled the 60-minute measure to slightly bullish, yet progress must have slowed somewhat because two-hour price action is now neutral. The rate continued its descent beyond 0.6488 so that it is now nearing my projected hourly support level at 0.6479 (though I have my doubts as to whether it will actually make it that low).

    NOTE: Entering a long position at the first 30-minute pullback in the two-hour price flow late yesterday afternoon would have easily garnered you a total return of at least 40 to 50 pips at this point this morning.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #409     Jun 2, 2025
  10. expiated

    expiated

    So, here is my mental routine for you thus far...
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    meeting_of_the_minds.png
    1. Check the 60-minute charts every hour, noting which pairs are evidencing trends of sufficient strength to warrant consideration. Limit your trades to these assets exclusively. (There is a strong possibility that this will correspond with the two-hour slope on your 60-minute charts being greater than 0.0989 or less than -0.0989.)
    2. Then view your 15-minute charts simply to get a different view of market conditions on the (off) chance that this might alert you to some aspect of market conditions you failed to notice when analyzing things from an hourly perspective.
    3. Also review the five-minute charts, primarily for the purpose of evaluating whether the 30- and seven-minute histograms are together registering a trend in the hourly price flow. You should also be monitoring the five-minute chart corresponding to any pair in which you presently hold a position for recommendations as to when you ought to exit with profit, not to mention the five-minute chart of any pair with a strong two-hour trend for recommendations as to when you should be entering positions based on 4¼- and seven-minute price action.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2025
    #410     Jun 2, 2025