On February 9, 2014 and May 21, 2015 I commented (on my trading blog located elsewhere) that despite my ongoing search for the best Forex trading strategy for me personally, I didn’t think I was a hapless newbie endlessly learning something new, getting excited, placing a few losing trades, getting disheartened, rejecting the entire concept as a result, and moving on to the next strategy; perpetuating a never-ending cycle of failure because of neglecting to ever put in the time and effort necessary for a given methodology to become successful. And on October 18, 2015, I again noted this fact, because at that time I believed I had settled on a single technique, and in a sense, I had. For I cited November 2015 as the initial development of the system I was still using when I made additional modifications on February 17, 2018. What’s different now is that my settings and parameters have become so firmly established that this month I branched out from primarily using lower-time-frame charts to configurating and incorporating four-hour charts, and now incorporating daily charts as well. The higher time frames inform me as to when I should not be worried about being stopped out of particular positions due to the fact that the dominant trend is still exerting the most influence and pressure, and therefore likely to turn a “bad” looking situation around back in my favor—eventually. This prevents me from exiting positions for a loss that would have actually closed as winning trades, sooner or later, had I simply remained in them for a little bit longer, all thanks to my coordinating various time frames in a manner I never did in the past…
Trade Evaluation Chart/Sheet I have now arranged all the most important information I glean from my Numerical Price Prediction daily charts in an organized fashion to evaluate how useful and how valid the data might prove to be in terms of selecting and executing trades that are truly among those with the absolute highest probability of ultimately ending in success. (Note that in the image above I have blanked out the cells identifying the data I gather to protect intellectual property. Moreover, at this point I am electing not to evaluate CADJPY, CHFJPY, EURAUD, NZDJPY or NZDUSD.) Based on the above analysis, shorting or selling EURJPY, GBPJPY and GBPUSD, whose rates have all climbed within the last 24 hours, as soon as they give an indication of initiating a return to their overall downward trajectories, would seem to offer the best opportunities in terms of reward-to-risk ratios, with plenty of room for the pairs to continue falling. AUDUSD is also decidedly bearish, and in fact, I am short the pair from 0.7385 even now. Nonetheless, its structure is such that it is not all that attractive from a reward-to-risk perspective. The pair can of course continue to fall forever if it wishes, but if it does, it will be fighting against “structural support” all the way. Conversely, USDCAD is decidedly bullish, but not attractive from a reward-to-risk perspective given that, structurally speaking, a continued climb north will require it to struggle against resistance repeatedly. Indeed, for the last nine hours it has been unable to climb above the general region of 1.3310, so I am NOT currently long USDCAD.
EURJPY and GBPJPY did not follow through, so at 03:22 GMT I’m still waiting for them to make a COMMITTED turn southward…
Based on the “daily-chart evaluation grid” EURUSD is technically bearish, but a glance at its daily chart betrays the fact that the pair has been more or less range bound for about six days now. GBPUSD is straight up bearish and is showing what I call a green candlestick in a red string, so I’m currently short the pair. EURAUD is straight up bullish, so I’ll be looking to buy on pullbacks if any occur. No other pairs have what I might deem a prefect alignment, so I will be looking for scalping opportunities as they arise. (Again, AUDUSD and USDCAD are located at structural extremes that give me pause as to how much room they might have left to continue on the same trajectory, so I hesitate to buy USDCAD or sell AUDUSD.)
When I initially joined this forum in August (or September) of last year, I wrote that “in the spirit of ‘testing everything and holding fast to that which is good,’ I'm starting this online journal to assess my proficiency at reading the ‘signs of the times’ to see that which lies beyond the Forex market horizon.” I then added the goal of enhancing or refining my techniques and tactics in a manner that would allow me to trade much more frequently while still maintaining a daily success rate somewhere in the neighborhood of 90%. After that I wanted to try to sprinkle 10-, 20-, and 30-pip trades (or even greater) in among my standard fare of 5-pip (more or less) intraday guerrilla scalping. I write all this to say that the amount of room I have left of improve on what I’ve managed so far is probably not much given my personal limitations, so here with this post, not quite a year later, is probably as good a place as any to stop writing about all this and simply run with it.