Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jun 9, 2018.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    AUDJPY is still looking at bullish one- and two-day price flows. So, with the rate having just been rejected by "statistical" support in the form of the 24-hour baseline, let me see if it follows through and heads higher, or if it reverses direction and stops me out.

    AUDJPYH1 Today.png
     
    #361     Feb 13, 2025
  2. expiated

    expiated

    AUDJPY is exhibiting some rather directionless price action. So, I have adjusted my levels to more-or-less guarantee I walk away with at leas some amount of profit before the pair turns against me again.

    directionless.png
     
    #362     Feb 13, 2025
  3. expiated

    expiated

    So here we go... Let me see if USDCHF turns out to be more cooperative than was AUDJPY.

    USDCHFH1 let me see.png
     
    #363     Feb 13, 2025
  4. expiated

    expiated

    USDCHF began losing ground this hour, and it's time for me to get some sleep. So, I ended up collecting only ten pips worth of profit from AUDJPY, and only five from USDCHF.
     
    #364     Feb 14, 2025
  5. expiated

    expiated

    I'm curious to see what happens if I introduce the concept of "unstoppable trends" into my trading. This I am imagining as trends exhibiting so much momentum that their advancement cannot or will not be denied.

    But it will be important for me to stay cognizant of the overall market situation, so I don't get punished by what I will characterize as a skewed outlier-distorted market environment, where the only reason why my measures register "Monster Moe" is because values (price) are so extreme and are deviating so widely from previous data points that they "corrupt" my statistical measures.

    The pairs that were exhibiting "unstoppable trend" momentum at the close of this week's trading were AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY. Typically, such pairs will only pull back for a maximum of eight hours straight before resuming a course in the direction of the dominant trend.

    the_four.png

    The only problem is, my numbers put the price of USDCHF at the base of statistical support in the form of what they calculate to be the floor of the 56-hour price range. So whom am I to believe? Well personally, I give more credence to the two-hour plus price range. So then, it would probably be a good idea to go check the other three pairs' four-hour charts to make sure they aren't in similar situations.

    support.png

    Well, I checked and AUDUSD and EURUSD are looking at bullish two-day price flows, so they are okay. (USCHF's two-day price action is neutral.) USDJPY was bullish but is now bearish, so it's probably really neutral.

    For me to consider it bearish, it's going to have to continue to pull the two-hour measures south in a decisive manner (and not just a little bit, as it is now).
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2025
    #365     Feb 15, 2025
  6. expiated

    expiated

    So far, I'm about 10% of the way to my goal, with another 90% of the way left to go...

    nadex_balance.png
     
    #366     Feb 24, 2025
  7. expiated

    expiated

     
    #367     Feb 26, 2025
  8. expiated

    expiated

     
    #368     Feb 26, 2025
  9. expiated

    expiated

     
    #369     Feb 27, 2025
  10. expiated

    expiated

    Trading with the "Combining the Best" chart configuration...


    • Be prepared to see rates execute a regression toward the mean or mean reversion type of maneuver on the contrarian side of the eight-hour price range envelop at 0.35% deviation if eight-hour price action is trending, or if the eight-hour flow is more-or-less neutral, be ready to see this happen on either side of the envelope at 0.35% to 0.50% to 0.65% deviation.
    • The same applies from the center up to the contrarian band of the two-hour price flow channel at 0.15% deviation when this measure is trending, or either band when the envelope is neutral.
    • Consider entering positions at the contrarian band of the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.05% deviation when 30-minute price action is trending in the opposite direction.
    • If at all possible, you want to pass on entering positions unless the trajectories of the ten-, thirty-, forty- and two-hour measures are all heading in the same direction.
     
    #370     Feb 28, 2025