Generally speaking, the extreme limit of price's maximum acceleration on the surge side of the 12-hour baseline is from 0.85% to 1.35% deviation, depending on the particular currency pair being traded.
Time to put my theories to the test. Hopefully I'm not mistaken in believing I might be walking through a door leading to unexplored horizons unlike any I've experienced in the past... First, let me call the gist of a pair's general overall directional price action from month to month the "global trend," with the measure confirming its day-to-day flow from a more-or-less weekly perspective as the "intermediate trend," and finally—its day-to-day flow from an hourly perspective as the "actionable trend." The pairs currently considered trade candidates based on the intermediate trend are the yen pairs: AUDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY; though EURGBP is not all that far behind. This recommends entering short positions whenever the yen pairs see their hourly trends coming out of contrarian pullbacks in the opposite direction as that of the 12-hour measure, as confirmed by the four-hour baseline. As soon as this happens, I plan to sell each pair listed above and then watch to see how long it takes for them to drop below their current levels (if ever) which are presently at 95.22, 156.72, 188.37 and 152.02 respectively, and record the durations or time intervals here. (EURGBP will need to pull back first.)
GBPJPY sounded the alarm during the 6 AM hour Pacific Standard Time, giving me permission to go ahead and enter a short position. So, I will be interested to see whether it follows through or if it turns around and even goes so far as to stop me out.
So...in evaluating your forecast, you can forget 12 hours (essentially). Practically speaking, the longest you want to go in terms of the immediate "profit accumulating" measures is six to eight hours! (i.e., about half to two-thirds that much) No! You're not concerned with confirmation from the four-hour baseline. What you want to focus on is location within the six-, seven- and eight hour price range envelopes with regard to the direction in which these measures are sloping.
This trade made via the NADEX platform based on Phase II assumptions is off to a good start, but will the rate make it all the way down to the floor of the corresponding Knock-out Contract? I don't think I'll wait to find out. Price is already located at the base of the "global" intraday price flow channel, so I'm going to set my profit target at $18 and be happy with that.
Instead of using the baseline as a trigger signal, use the contrarian band of the channel at 0.18% deviation as a pullback threshold level.
So then, this trade is likely to be in-the-money ten minutes from now, even though I accidentally bought AUDJPY instead of USDJPY. I could have essentially set expiry for any duration between now and then and the trade would have been profitable anyway. Since this one turned out okay, I now plan to go ahead and enter multiple positions simultaneously if warranted.
A little while ago, having been visited by an idea in the form of a second iteration of Numerical Price Prediction, I decided to have a little bit of fun putting it to the test by attempting to get my NADEX demo account back up to a million bucks. It turned out however that my idea was woefully lacking, with my balance going down, down, down instead of increasing. But as of today, I feel satisfied that yet a third iteration of my system is the real deal this time, and am therefore presenting myself with that same challenge, starting with $67,382. As before, I want to see how long it takes me to grow it by 1,484% (if ever).
LONG PLAY Being pretty much satisfied with all my settings, parameters and measures, let me begin spending a lot more time going out on a limb by making bold moves that could very well turn out to be incredibly wrong. Here's one... Seeing as how USDCHF is entering what I categorize as a "statistical" support zone. I plan to check in on it once every hour, and buy the pair should I have occasion to confirm that the hourly price flow has executed a bullish reversal...