Yesterday's GBPJPY short position is by far the most profitable Forex trade I can remember having ever made, banking an approximately 62-pip gain in one transaction... I'm hoping this turns out to be indicative of the kind of typical outcomes I can routinely expect when applying what I gather is going to be my culminating approach to a pseudo-swing-trading style of buying and selling Forex pairs, which I began using for the first time yesterday (with this trade). The methodology involved is quite simple: Trade in the direction dictated by the trajectory of the five-hour price flow, entering positions as the 15-, 20- and 30-minute measures bounce off or are rejected by statistical support or resistance in the form of the contrarian band of the 70-minute price range envelope at 0.20% to 0.35% deviation and/or the contrarian side/half of the five-hour price range envelope. Exit with profit as soon as 70-minute price action begins threatening to take back some of your gains by reversing direction against your open position. That's all there is to it...simple as pie—no muss, no fuss. It's a very laid back approach to the task for me personally, so I trust it will be a pleasure applying it going forward..
MARKET FORECAST: USDJPY USDCHF has also been extremely bullish since October, but the rate has dropped down to the contrarian side of the 12-day price flow, meaning that here too, I will be watching for the day-to-day trend to turn north from its present neutral to slightly bearish trajectory. EURGBP has already turned north, so if the pair forms a red daily candlestick, it might be worth considering entering a long position at the end of the day. USDCHF saw everything between its one- and eight-hour price flows turn bullish several hours ago, but all but the eight-hour measure have pretty much gone neutral, so be watching for if and when the faster measures rejoin eight-hour price action heading north.
The Aussie dollar-Japanese yen looks to be in the process of getting rejected by statistical resistance in the form of a bearish eight-hour price flow. To realize a profit however I'm going to need to see the intraday trend actually follow through with its now southbound trajectory.
I exited this position with a few pips profit when the pair began to stall at around the 95.29 level. It did finally fall to 95.18, but that wouldn't have done me any good because I was asleep for the night and wouldn't have been there to lock in gains before it reversed direction, spending the next five hours climbing all the way back up to the top of the eight-hour price range (by that time, the eight-hour price flow was neutral) before finally heading south in a decisive manner at 4:00 AM Pacific Standard Time (price is presently sitting at 94.70).
So long as AUDUSD is headed north, it's going the "wrong way" in that the broader trend is headed south. You should therefore watch for it to reverse course and rejoin the trajectory of the dominant trend, should it ultimately choose to do so, so you can possibly get in near the beginning of a potentially monster bearish move. By the way, what's going on below? You wrote two different scenarios and called them both "USDCHF." You need to figure that mess out, cuz. Oh, and another thing... USDCHF formed a green candlestick on Friday, so you should be monitoring the lower-time-frame charts next week for intraday pullbacks from which to go long this pair.
Based on the insights you believe you have developed thus far, I'd have to say that when you're looking at a scenario such as the AUDUSD structure you cited two days ago, you don't really want to count on price action rejoining the direction of the longer-term flow (as you did then) until it is confirmed by at least the 12-hour baseline, with the faster moving averages—meaning the one-, four-, eight- and ten-hour measures—positioning themselves on the corresponding ("proper") side of their 12-hour cousin. Note also that the best pairs to trade are those whose two-day price flow is sloping more than 0.2742 or less than -0.2742 and/or whose 12-hour rate of change is beyond 0.0489 or -0.0489, as represented on the corresponding lower-panel histograms. Generally speaking, if price action violates the two-day envelope at the 0.70% deviation level for longer than a short period of time, it's going to pull the day-to-day price flow in that direction with it, so keep this in mind, along with the fact that this level therefore constitutes a frequent "statistical" support/resistance level.