Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jun 9, 2018.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    The above video was embedded in the WRONG thread.

    Anyway, I just typed in another post...


    "I need to lock down the precise modus operandi I consider optimal, which I've probably just accomplished—which depends on an eight-hour framework from a day-to-day perspective and a two-hour framework intraday."

    Below is the indicator that complements the two-hour protocol. Spread out across the ten foreign currency pairs I watch, it should provide me with plenty of trade opportunities during each day's active sessions, with each trade averaging about ten pips worth of profit.

    AUDJPYM1.png

    Friday | December 27, 2024
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2024
    #331     Dec 27, 2024
  2. expiated

    expiated

    I used the chart configurations with which I'm presently trading to code a 15-minute Deriv.com binary option indicator, which is supposed to sound the alarm following the formation of a 15-minute contrarian bar candlestick. However, one must be cautious given that it is sometimes signaling a reversal rather than a pullback, as it did in the location labeled below with a capital letter E.

    OANDA - MetaTrader.png

    The above image is a comparison between the 15-minute Deriv indicator just mentioned and the one-minute "AUDJPY Study" indicator I coded on Friday. What I need to do now is identify the appropriate lower-time-frame measures for highlighting exactly when price action is coming out of the corresponding potential setup signaled by the 15-minute alert arrows, which I have labeled with matching lowercase letters on the one-minute chart.

    I won't do it now, but I do plan to set aside a few minutes to do so sometime later today.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2024
    #332     Dec 29, 2024
  3. expiated

    expiated

     
    #333     Dec 30, 2024
  4. expiated

    expiated

     
    #334     Dec 30, 2024
  5. expiated

    expiated

     
    #335     Dec 31, 2024
  6. expiated

    expiated

    SYSTEM SUMMARY FOR 2025
     
    #336     Jan 1, 2025
  7. expiated

    expiated

    The specifics/details of your actions have changed quite a bit from December 26, 2024...

    african_american_instructor_small_reversed.png

    Nitty Gritty Anecdotal Notes:

    Normally, at the intraday level you’re going to be trading in the direction dictated by the gist of the general overall drift or flow seen in the orange fifteen-minute fanning moving averages, the slate blue 30-minute baseline, and the chocolate 43-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation, which also serves as a 30-minute price range envelope for USDCAD.

    This bias/sentiment will be confirmed by the slope of the sea green 90-minute and crimson two-hour baselines along with the positional relationship of the above faster measures with respect to these two more stable indicators.

    With this in mind, the better times to enter positions occur when the black five-minute price flow channel at 0.01% deviation is coming out of pullbacks to the contrarian side of the orange fifteen-minute fanning moving averages, and/or the slate blue 30-minute baseline, and/or the chocolate 43-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation.

    On a five-minute chart, this will often coincide with the lower-panel oscillator making contact with the contrarian band of the price anomaly channel at the 0.0007 or -0.0007 level, as appropriate; and less frequently, possibly even with candlesticks contacting the contrarian band of the saddle brown 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.06% deviation.

    Acting on your observations over the past week or two, of which the above constitutes your culminating output, you have not made a single losing trade. Your trades were very few and far between however, seeing as how you were primarily conducting research. Now that your study has concluded, it will be interesting to see if acting on the above protocol in earnest will begin generating the kinds of substantive returns you regard as meeting your full expectations when it comes to what you imagine to be the full potential of your system.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2025
    #337     Jan 4, 2025
  8. expiated

    expiated

    It also makes sense to enter positions as price is bouncing off (rejected at) a two- and/or four-hour statistical support or resistance level.
     
    #338     Jan 4, 2025
  9. expiated

    expiated

    The image you see here was captured after the markets closed Friday January 31st, 2025, to challenge my working theory with regard to this pair.

    USDJPYH1_key_support_and_resistance.png

    As you can plainly see, from my perspective the overall general price flow of the U.S. dollar-Japanese yen is bearish, with candlesticks forming in the upper range of a down-sloping channel in a region that might possibly turn out to constitute former support turned resistance.

    Clearly, it is reasonable to conclude that there is a greater than fifty-fifty chance it will not be long before the pair resumes its southbound trajectory from its last price of 155.16, so I plan to sell the pair, with a take-profit target somewhere in the neighborhood of 154.12. On the other hand, if price breaks out to the upside, it will blow my theory out of the water, and the pair will immediately be revised to a buy candidate.

    In this next example, I view the Aussie dollar-Japanese yen as being rejected by what I call statistical support in the form of the lower band of a down-sloping channel. And with plenty of room up above between its location on Friday and the top of the channel, having just executed what I gather to be a more-than-likely temporary pullback on its way north, I figure the odds are in favor of the rate continuing to rise even higher, and accordingly, plan to buy the pair at the start of next week...

    AUDJPYH1.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2025
    #339     Feb 2, 2025
  10. expiated

    expiated

    Though USDJPY's immediate trend is indeed bullish, price is at the top of the corresponding channel and would therefore need to pull back to around the 155.24 level to justify a buy at this point. However, the overall price flow is still bearish, so my preference would be to wait to see if the immediate trend turns around and heads south, and if it does, sell the pair at that time rather than enter a long position at any point over the next few days.

    USDJPYH1_update.png

    I did not buy AUDJPY seeing as how it gapped down at the start of the week. Nonetheless, it remains a buy prospect given that price is now down at the base of the previously identified channel.

    AUDJPYH1_update.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2025
    #340     Feb 2, 2025