Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jun 9, 2018.

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    #301     Nov 21, 2024
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    So then, what am I looking for? Well, for a long position, I want: (A) the upper band of the 20-minute price range envelope at 0.13% deviation to be above the upper band of the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation, (B) the 20-minute baseline to be above the 40-minute baseline, (C) the slope of the 20-minute baseline to be bullish, (D) the relative position of the two-minute baseline with respect to the seven-minute baseline to be at or below -0.4 as represented by the corresponding lower-panel oscillator, and (E) for the ten-minute baseline to have recently reversed direction from a bearish to bullish trajectory.

    In the case of a short position, I'm looking for the exact opposite.
     
    #302     Nov 22, 2024
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    On your four-hour charts, where are you looking for intermediate support and resistance?
    • Well, statistical support/resistance is pegged at the 1% deviation level of the 16-hour price range envelope.
    • And the above is to be evaluated in light of the 2½-day temporal support/resistance level(s).
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    Last edited: Nov 22, 2024
    #303     Nov 22, 2024
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    This trade was based on the above premise and is working out rather nicely...

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    #304     Nov 22, 2024
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    This morning's activity (VERSION B) suggested improvements in the indicator I coded yesterday (VERSION A). Moreover, it also lead to an alert that will hopefully (more often than not) sound the alarm when there is a fully-fledged, wholesale reversal in the intraday trend (see the BIG arrows)...

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    #305     Nov 22, 2024
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    Saturday | November 23, 2024

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    So, with the type of trading I'm going to be attempting to "master" at this time, I plan on using two temporal measures: The 12-hour and 2½-day temporal support/resistance channels.

    If price action is more or less neutral, currency pairs tend to find temporal support/resistance at the above 12-hour measure, and statistical support/resistance at around the 0.30% deviation level(s) of the 8-hour to 12-hour price flow envelope(s).

    If trending however—which is to say, if the gist of the overall directional tendency of the two-, three- and four-hour baselines is sloping on an indisputable northbound or southbound trajectory—statistical support or resistance is likely to be encountered not far on the contrarian side of the two-hour baseline. This will often coincide with the contrarian band of the hourly price range envelope at 0.16% deviation (so these would constitute my likely entry levels).
     
    #306     Nov 23, 2024
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    #307     Nov 24, 2024
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    So then, this is the indicator I have coded based on the premise put forth in Post #306. However, this signal alone does not trigger a trade. Rather, it simply alerts me as to when a possible trade setup might be unfolding. To actually enter a position, I must wait until I first establish (on a lower-time-frame chart) that price has just formed and is coming out of a trough or crest, as appropriate...

    GBPJPYM15.png
     
    #308     Nov 24, 2024
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    #309     Nov 27, 2024
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    #310     Nov 28, 2024