COMPARING ALTERNATIVE FORECAST MODELS When you view the weekly chart configuration displaying the weekly price ranges (which probably equate to the projected maximum monthly candlestick lengths) you're looking at a neutral monthly price flow and a decidedly bullish weekly price flow, not to mention a decidedly bullish four-month price flow (though this last point of view is also true on the daily charts). This contrasts sharply with the opinion derived from looking at the daily chart, that... "a (position) trader MIGHT be able to profit from entering a short position as soon as the four-day baseline begins to turn over." Like the daily charts, the weekly chart converted from the trend lines that were transferred from U.S. index charts also has the bearish two-month price range envelopes, but… it too sports a bullish weekly baseline, not to mention bullish two-week and monthly baselines—again contrasting with the prognosis to enter a short position as soon as the four-day baseline begins to turn over. This prompted me to plot the four-day price range envelop on the weekly charts, revealing it to more-or-less define itself as the maxim weekly candlestick length. What all of this comes down to, basically, is that it looks to me like a position trader would best be served by remaining bullish so long as the weekly price flow maintains a positional relationship above an upward-sloping monthly baseline, and remaining in short positions so long as the weekly price flow maintains a positional relationship below a downward-sloping monthly baseline. (It's not quite clear whether the monthly baseline really is neutral, or actually, just a tad bit bullish.) This would recommend that a position trader EXIT a long position if and when the four-day baseline begins to turn over, and RE-ENTER the long position if and when the four-day baseline turns north again (so long as the monthly trend lines remain bullish). It also means that all of the above interpretations of price action (listed in Post #210) can be thrown out and replaced by a forecast model consisting of nothing more than the weekly price flow and the monthly baseline.
And in turn, the above means that when it comes to swing trading and day trading, I am looking for pairs where the faster trend lines are moving AGAINST the weekly (four-day) price flow so that I can enter positions as they reverse direction to REJOIN this "controlling" measure.
So then, as of Friday's close (when most pairs were surging) the only real play is USDCHF, whose climbing eight- and 16-hour measures are in opposition to the falling four-day price range envelope(s). EURUSD, with a bullish four-day flow, is also a possibility, but it is languishing in a no man's land, neither surging nor retreating. So, were someone to enter a long position, the hope would be that it would resume its ascent and not pull back first. Yet, even if it were to descend, hitting a stop loss at around 1.0970, the trader would simply wait for the rate to turn north once again and re-enter a long position to recoup the loss and add what could turn out to be quite a significant amount of profit on top of that.
USDCHF made a move shortly after midnight, Pacific Time, which might have initiated the start of a bearish leg south... Given its bearish sentiment, I opted not to express my suspicion that AUDUSD might rise, based on structure alone (given the rate's location in the lower region of the four-day price flow). Nonetheless, I bought the pair after it being to climb, ever so slightly, at the start of this week's trading, and so far, that appears to have been the right move...
Rather than enter a long position and hope, my choice would have been to wait for a trigger signal, and THEN buy EURUSD. That was what I personally planned to do. But unfortunately, that signal came about four hours ago, while I was asleep...
Sweet...thanks be to God, NPP, which I felt was fully developed around the beginning of this year, is at this point requiring me to do nothing more than act on the information it provides as I now interpret it. So, the forecasts I was about to type here, I will not be typing after all, since the only thing I need to do to make my decisions now is look at the charts. They provide me with my instructions without my having to do any more analysis than merely looking at them. To type my plans here would simply be redundant...so...no need to bother.
The refinement of forecast model interpretation enable me to make my most profitable trade to date during this last 24-hour market cycle, having given me the confidence to begin testing the waters with respect to trading whole lots as opposed to 0.01 to 0.05...
SATURDAY | MAY 6, 2023 It seems logical that the 24-hour baseline would track the day-to-day price flow (for swing trading), but it's actually the 16-hour baseline that does this. (The former measure is a bit lagging.) Unlike intraday/day trading, where the 13-, 20- and 40-minute baselines are the controlling measures, with the one-, two- and four-hour price range envelopes suggesting at what levels reversals in these controlling measures might recommend entering or exiting positions...not to mention in WHICH direction trades with the HIGHEST probability of ending in success "should" be headed, and in which OPPOSING direction they should be exited; when it comes to swing trading, it is the four-hour price flow that is in commanded, as confirmed by the eight- and 16-hour baselines, with the four- and six-day price range envelopes suggesting at what levels reversals in the four-hour baseline might recommend entering or exiting positions...not to mention in WHICH direction trades with the HIGHEST probability of ending in success "should" be headed, and in which OPPOSING direction they should be exited.
That should be... as confirmed by the six- and eight-hour baselines, rather than the eight- and 16-hour baselines.
Traders Union did not approve my account because I did not realize I was supposed to use their link when signing up with Eightcap. Nonetheless, since I began trading through RoboForex at the beginning of this month, using an enhanced pseudo swing style version of Numerical Price Prediction (thinking I was practicing in preparation for entering Traders Union's next contest) my initial $5000 demo account is up by a healthy 35%...