Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Jun 9, 2018.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    GBPUSD has traverse about a 42-pip stop loss to kick me out of my long position. It will probably be a while before I get the signal to reenter another GBPUSD long position. However, I did already get the go ahead to buy GBPJPY a second time.

    EURGBP looks to be in the upper regions of a range it has been bound by for the last six weeks at 0.8822, so I might look to short the pair if the opportunity presents itself during my non-sleeping hours.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
    #11     Jun 11, 2018
  2. traider

    traider

    NDAs give me too much headache, hopefully don't have to go that route... Just making lawyers $$$ instead of poor traders
     
    #12     Jun 11, 2018
    expiated likes this.
  3. expiated

    expiated

    Sure, that’s fine. I will simply maintain NPP as a proprietary trading system used exclusively by yours truly, which is what I should probably do anyway. But thanks for your interest, nonetheless!
     
    #13     Jun 11, 2018
  4. expiated

    expiated

    I also got the go ahead to buy EURJPY a second time, but I realized only a 23-pip gain. What’s up with that? Did I not take a 2-pip spread into consideration when setting my take-profit target?

    ScreenHunter_8071 Jun. 11 07.44.jpg

    Also, I was waiting for my moving averages to give me the go ahead to enter another GBPUSD long position, but THAT WAS A MISTAKE in that the pair’s STRUCTURE was such as to justify entering a long position immediately and possibly having already made up my prior loss.

    Going forward I will need to REMEMBER to ALWAYS take into consideration BOTH position AND structure when determining if, when, and where to execute my trades.
     
    #14     Jun 11, 2018
  5. expiated

    expiated

    I went ahead and scalped a few more pips profit off AUDUSD again before reentering another position for the long haul, and I’m glad I did because I discovered my position size was only 0.01 when I thought I had entered 1.00.

    ScreenHunter_8072 Jun. 11 08.26.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
    #15     Jun 11, 2018
  6. expiated

    expiated

    If I had been looking for simply 25 pips out of GBPJPY instead of like 60 or something, my take-profit target would have been hit maybe an hour ago, so I went ahead and cashed in about 18 pips for now and reentered another long position.

    ScreenHunter_8073 Jun. 11 08.35.jpg

    I have more confidence in this little experiment than I did yesterday, so I am upping my standard positions sizes from 0.01 to 0.05.

    Also, I think I’m going to stop posting entries in this journal now. It’s becoming pretty clear to me that this new approach is going to work out just fine, so there’s no call for me to keep posting my activity play-by-play.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
    #16     Jun 11, 2018
  7. pipeguy

    pipeguy

    What are the currency pairs and broker that you are using for this strategy?
     
    #17     Jun 11, 2018
  8. expiated

    expiated

    Events over the second 24 hours of attempting to employ the Numerical Price Prediction system in more of a swing than scalping style appear to be suggesting to me that I should assign structure with much greater precedence over position—without a doubt!

    I believe that doing so is likely to return my success rate back to the 90% neighborhood (to which I am accustomed) in contrast with the pitiful 50% territory where it is now.

    ScreenHunter_8075 Jun. 12 01.21.jpg

    I would also note that my last losing trade would have been a winner had I set my stop loss at 25 pips according to the “rules” as opposed to the nearest local low, which seemed to “make sense” at the time due to its providing better risk-to-reward in the form of a tighter stop. (I was asleep at the time I was stopped out and therefore missed my opportunity to reenter the trade to recoup my loss, and then some.)
     
    #18     Jun 12, 2018
  9. expiated

    expiated

    I haven’t noticed that currency pairs or broker have much bearing at all, if any, on the system’s success. In fact, a brief evaluation of its application to commodities and equities suggests it will work just as well, if not better, in those arenas too, but I have yet to prove that this is true.

    Nonetheless, I will go ahead and answer your questions since there are no reasons not to. I’m currently using a Varchev demo account to trade AUDUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY.

    For real-life trades I use OANDA, which includes all of the above assets plus AUDJPY, CADJPY, CHFJPY, EURAUD, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD.
     
    #19     Jun 12, 2018
  10. pipeguy

    pipeguy

    Nice pick, mine is Hotforex. Btw what is varchev demo account? Some kind of trading system or just another industry name?
     
    #20     Jun 12, 2018